Climate change Dr David Evans

To boil it all down Dr Evans now believes climate change is as a result of "waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the sun".

If his theory is correct this will case a major upset to current thinking.

http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/story-fnj4anv2-1227555674611

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Favourite climate myths by David Evans

Below are many of the climate myths used by David Evans plus how often each myth has been used.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/David_Evans_arg.htm

Climate change is cycular ... The paleaological record is available for all to see.

However, when US universities are given large grants to "prove" climate change is anthropomorphic (not whether), then vested concerns will go down that slippery slope.

As Iam no expert I will await the outcome of his paper.

To me it seems a pointless argument to have over whether the advent of global warming is a natural cycle which would seem obvious and how much if any modern man adds to this. 

 The real discussion in my book and Lomborg's is whether billions of dollars of wealth of the world should be spent on renewables or whether the money could be better spent on lifting the poor out of poverty and combatting disease ,  Governments use the blunt instrument of higher tax to discourage behaviour they disapprove of. Higher Tax on tobacco , higher tax on fuel and higher tax on electricity .  In the case of higher electricity prices it means we are exchanging a higher standard of living now for a potential effect of Co2 on the planet in the future . It does nothing for the natural cycle . The real advance is this area will not come from govt edit but from advances in technology by the private sector .  The largest one for the future of our standard of living will come from storage of energy at a local level . This has the potential to eliminate remote generation and transmission and will make todays investments obsolete .  If we combine this with falling populations , already underway in the wealthier countries it makes even more sense to invest out money into the poorer societies to raise them up . 

Pete,

Well put.

Western Power, the state-owned company that operates the grid in the south-west corner of Western Australia, is looking to take small communities completely off grid so that it can save money on costly network upgrades and extensions.

Western Power this week called a tender for up to ten stand-alone power systems, using solar plus battery storage, with back-up diesel, to cater for small communities around the Ravensthorpe region, around 500kms south east of Perth.

The network operator said it was looking to take small groups of customers – between five and ten – off grid as an alternative to “network replacement or significant refurbishment”  at end-of-grid locations. More could follow depending on the success of the pilot program.

Pete,

Esperance is a combination of wind and gas turbines.

We are 200k east of Ravy.

SD

Pete.

Esp also had the first commercial wind farm in Oz in conjunction with diesel gens but was later converted to gas turbines and wind.

The wind farm has been progessively enlarged and upgraded over time. It is located about 16k to the west of town.

Early 90s was the first installation as I recall.

SD

I prefer to look at the credentials of the scientist and whether their papers have been peer reviewed.
In this case David Evans is an electrical engineer and mathematician.
He is not a climate scientist.
His wife Joanne Nova is a climate skeptic who runs a large skeptic website and has made money writing books on climate denial.

Why should I believe someone who seemingly does not have the qualifications when 97% of climate scientists say the opposite.
The claim about funding of universities is unproven as the real funding comes from mining companies who wish to keep polluting as that means dollars to them. You only have to look at who is profiting from the greenhouse gases and it certainly is not true scientists.
I feel many make their opinions or decisions based on their political beliefs and not on scientific fact.
Are all the scientists really wrong and this electrical engineer right ???

Evans has great difficulty in understanding basic climate science, not only that he is very confused as to where the earth’s hotspot is, he thinks we are still recovering from the mini ice age which started in the 1600s.

He keeps putting out his ridiculous claims without any real scientific way of backing them up, but like everything else there are those people who will believe him because they are alarmists like him and don’t give any examples and concrete reasons why they believe him. Evan’s article the same one he has been pushing for years has been debunked so many times, he should be embarrassed, but he appears not to be and to think he still wants intelligent people to listen to him.

This is a bit I copied from NASA  “In its Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 90 percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet.”

Yep I think I will stick to believing those scientists and continue to ignore Evans.

"... concluded there's a more than 90 percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet.”

"PROBABILITY" !!!  

Hardly scientific fact ... Quite the opposite.  

And to what extent is the anthromorphic influence?

Not meaning to insult you, but it’s quite obvious you have not got a clue as to what you are asking. To begin with there is no such word as “anthromorphic”. I believe the word you are searching for is “anthropomorphic”.

You are getting mixed up with two similar words: Anthropomorphic and Anthropogenic

Anthropomorphic means: ascribing human form or attributes to a being or thing which is not human.

Anthropogenic : relates to environmental pollution and pollutants.

So therefore if we are going to speak of climate change, I believe we have to use the word “anthropogenic”. Right??

Now we come to doing research. In research statisticians may use words in the way they may not be used colloquially.  It is quite clear  you have not done  scientific research nor do you understand science or you would know what is meant by “probability”. Research does not set out to prove “facts”, nothing is fact, everything is a probability.

In research the scientist may put up two hypotheses (a) the null hypothesis and (b) the alternative hypothesis. Null means there is no significant difference to whatever is being tested and alternative means there is a significant difference. Since they both can’t be right, then the scientist might conclude a “probability”. In doing so, he/she does not have to go back to prove or disprove the entire research.

If a scientist concludes a 90% probability of something, you can be darned sure that it is a very clear yes, if 1,300   scientists conclude a 90% probability you can rest assured it is b****y darn conclusive!

End of story, amen.

Thank you, Ray, for your correction ...  Not insulted at all. Especially, as you told me not to address you in any way.  I am quite chuffed in fact. :-)

As I recall, the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, should result in a synthesis ... or am I thinking of "thesis" "antithesis" then "synthesis".

I do recall that the "thesis" was originally called "climate warming," but a rapid re-assessment re-drew the lines to "climate change".  

No, my field is not science ... But a friend, a senior academic leading research into all of this, states that the jury is still out.

To me, "probabiltity" is like saying, a woman is probably 90% pregnant.

Does "amen" normally follow "end of story"?

So, Ray, are we on "speaking terms" ... ?

Such scientists, who ignore the paleontological records, are not true scientists at all. 

Such records are vitally important.

The question is, to what extent does human action, if any, contribute to climate change.

And Ray, yes I know ...

Thank you RaY for your above post.

Always glad to read something from someone

who knows what he's talking about.

Yes, climate change is occurring ... 

The questions remains:

To what extent, if any, does human activity contribute to climate change?

That is the core issue.

Incidentally, I would like to see alternative power used.

I would like to see all vehicles barred from city centres, except essential services; the public required to use public transport.  This would go a long way towards improving the environment.  

But does anyone really believe that the public would tolerate this, in spite of the religious fervour of climate changers, who undoubted also  love their vehicles.  

Perhaps, petrol could be rationed also.

There are so many ways that environemental change could occur at grass-roots level.

Also, where is government-lead research into alternative crops that can be produced as climate change occurs.  What are governments doing for low-lying areas?

So very true Geomac.

Yes Geo, we have destroyed so many trees –the lungs of the earth and habitat for so much wild life and made extinct so many Animals Insects and Marine life, of course that is going to have a very bad effect on the planet as well as all the oil spills etc etc.These things can get by very well without US but NO way we can get by without THEM

I follow the climate change debate but do not have the scientific knowledge or ability to throw my hat in the ring in support of either camp at this time but the one thing that does concern me if human activity is the problem will there be a tipping point where it will be too damn late to do anything about it.

We do need some sort of insurance against a runaway situation I feel.

SD

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