Australia must step up in Asia
THE US will no longer be able to guarantee peace and security for the Asian region as its power declines relatively, while China’s defence budget is set to become the biggest in the world by 2050, says a leading Australian analyst.
Beijing-based Benjamin Herscovitch, a research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies, says in a report published today that “the era of unrivalled US economic and military leadership lives on borrowed time”.
He warns that “perceptions of US unwillingness to act as a credible strategic counterweight to possible aggressors like China could unleash a toxic wave of militarisation, and potentially prompt particularly vulnerable Asian nations, most notably Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, to develop nuclear weapons”.
Traditional US allies and partners such as Australia and Japan will play an increasingly important role in keeping China in check, he says, as Washington becomes more dependent on their support. Beijing already fully understands that Canberra is firmly ensconced in the network of US allies and partners, and does not expect to separate Australia from this grouping, he says.
Herscovitch sees the transition “from a US-led order to a multipolar international system, a balance of power between China, the US, India and ASEAN” — the latter centred around Indonesia.
Herscovitch says the US-focused “hub-and-spokes” alliance mindset is unsustainable. “Although the US will remain an indispensable security provider for its allies and partners, Washington will not be able” to offer broader guarantees for Asia as a whole, including the freedom of commerce and of navigation.
This will require “other means of reducing the likelihood of conflict and imposing sufficiently high costs on states that threaten the region’s peace and security”.
One such means is the development of the military strength of “the US pole of power” — its regional allies: Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Thailand and Australia. These five, with the US, are expected to be spending on defence 110 per cent of China’s military budget in 2050.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/us-leadership-in-asia-on-borrowed-time-says-benjamin-herscovitch/story-e6frg9fo-1227043024076
We don't have to do anything.
Our total armed forces combined would only fill the MCG to 75%.
We are very weak and under equipped.
We can't afford more because we have too much/many governments to support.