turmoil in Russia
That the rouble bounced back slightly from yesterday’s astonishing low of 80 to the dollar should give no comfort to Vladimir Putin today. The currency is in crisis and Russia’s economy approaching one: the central bank predicts that, with oil at $60 a barrel, the economy will shrink by 4.5% in 2015, even as inflation climbs and high interest rates hurt borrowers. Capital controls may yet be imposed if the rout of the rouble continues; Russia’s ability to repay its dollar-denominated debts is in question. As usual, Mr Putin blames foreigners: for imposing sanctions over Ukraine, and for depressing the oil price. But he is the main culprit: for dismembering Ukraine, and for failing to diversify the economy or institute the rule of law. Instead of encouraging investors and entrepreneurs he has strangled them with corruption. He has had 15 years to change that, and has failed dismally. 

Mind your language: the Fed meets
The Federal Reserve faces an apparently easy decision at its meeting today. As unemployment has fallen towards a level widely seen as normal, the Fed has been preparing to drop a two-year-old pledge to keep interest rates near zero, where they have been since 2008, for a “considerable time”: that would start the clock ticking on its first rate increase since 2006. Yet the Fed may be wary of sounding too bold when oil prices are plunging, emerging markets are showing cracks and Russia is heading into crisis. Meanwhile inflation, which will be reported today, probably fell to 1.4% in November and stayed at 1.8% excluding food and energy. Both figures (and a third, based on the Fed’s preferred index) are below the Fed’s 2% goal; they may stay there for years. So if the Fed does change its language, it may insert a vaguer promise to be “patient” in tightening policy.