If you’re a fan of your morning flat white or a splash of milk in your tea, you might want to sit down for this one.
Scientists are sounding the alarm: extreme heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and intense thanks to climate change, could soon put a serious dent in global dairy production.
And yes, that means your beloved milk, cheese, and yoghurt could be at risk.
The heat is on: What the science says
A comprehensive new study, drawing on data from more than 130,000 cows over 12 years, has found that when the mercury rises, dairy cows struggle to keep up.
Just one hour of ‘wet-bulb’ temperature—a measure that combines heat and humidity—above 26°C can slash a cow’s daily milk output by 0.5 per cent.
That might not sound like much, but over a hot summer, it adds up fast.
Worse still, the impact lingers. Even after the heatwave passes, cows can take up to 10 days to return to their usual milk production.
The researchers, hailing from the Universities of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Chicago, warn that by 2050, average daily milk production could drop by 4 per cent globally due to heat stress.
For the 150 million households worldwide that rely on dairy farming, that’s a big deal.
Why South Asia is in the hot seat
The effects won’t be felt equally everywhere. South Asia, already a dairy powerhouse and expected to drive more than half of global milk production growth in the next decade, is especially vulnerable.
As fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, so do the risks of debilitating heatwaves in the region. This could spell trouble not just for local farmers, but for the global dairy supply chain.
Cows, climate, and methane: A vicious cycle
It’s a double-edged sword: while cows are suffering from the heat, they’re also part of the problem.
Cattle are responsible for about a third of human-caused methane emissions, a greenhouse gas that’s even more potent than carbon dioxide.
So, as the planet heats up, cows produce less milk—and more methane, which in turn accelerates global warming. It’s a vicious cycle that’s hard to break.
What are farmers doing about it?
Farmers aren’t just sitting on their hands. In Israel, where the study was conducted, nearly every dairy farm uses technology to help cows beat the heat.
This includes providing shade, installing fans and ventilation systems, and even using sprinklers to cool the animals directly.
But here’s the catch: on days when temperatures soar above 24°C, these strategies only offset about 40 per cent of the heat’s impact on milk production. In other words, they help, but they’re not a silver bullet.
Beyond cooling: Rethinking dairy farming
Lead researcher Claire Palandri says it’s time to think bigger. She urges policymakers and farmers alike to look beyond just cooling cows.
Reducing other stressors—like confinement and separating calves from their mothers—can make cows more resilient to heat. Happier, less-stressed cows are better able to cope when the temperature rises.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re in Australia, you might be wondering how this global trend could affect your local dairy aisle.
While our farmers are no strangers to heat, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events means adaptation is more important than ever.
Expect to see more investment in shade structures, cooling systems, and perhaps even changes in how herds are managed.
And yes, there’s a chance that milk and dairy prices could rise if production drops or if farmers need to invest in expensive new technologies.
It’s a reminder that climate change isn’t just an abstract concept—it’s something that could hit us right in the breakfast bowl.
Credit: WIN News / Facebook
What can we do?
While the big solutions—like cutting fossil fuel emissions—require action from governments and industry, there are things we can do as individuals.
Supporting local farmers, reducing food waste, and being mindful of our own carbon footprints all help.
And if you’re feeling adventurous, you might even try some of the new plant-based milks on the market (though we know nothing quite beats the real thing in a good cuppa).
Join the conversation
Have you noticed changes in the quality or price of your milk and dairy products? Are you a farmer with firsthand experience of how heatwaves affect your herd? Or do you have tips for keeping cool during the Aussie summer? We’d love to hear your thoughts and stories—share them in the comments below!
Also read: Dairy prices to spike as floods and drought hit farmers
