If you’ve found yourself reaching for the sunscreen instead of the winter woollies this May, you’re not alone.
Across much of Australia, the autumn has felt more like an encore of summer than a gentle slide into cooler months.
With record-breaking temperatures, balmy nights, and a stubborn lack of rain in some regions, many are left wondering: is this the new normal? And more importantly, what does it mean for the winter ahead?
Let’s unpack what’s been happening, why it matters, and what you can expect as we head into the colder months.
A record-breaking autumn: what happened?
This year, autumn has been anything but ordinary. March and April delivered unseasonal heat across much of the country, with Victoria notching up its warmest April on record.
In some areas, temperatures soared more than 3°C above the long-term average, and early May saw maximums a staggering 10°C higher than usual for the time of year.
It wasn’t just the days that were warm—nights in cities like Hobart and Melbourne also broke records, with the warmest May evenings since records began.
While Queensland and the NSW coast copped heavy rain (thanks in part to Tropical Cyclone Alfred), the story was very different elsewhere.
The corridor between Adelaide and Melbourne has been exceptionally dry, with rainfall deficits stretching back over a year and drought conditions emerging.
Western Tasmania, too, has been parched, though recent rain has offered some relief.
And it’s not just the land that’s been feeling the heat. Sea temperatures around Australia have been unusually high, leading to severe coral bleaching events, harmful algal blooms, and disruptions to marine ecosystems.
What’s behind the heat?
The main culprit? Persistent high-pressure systems—or ‘blocking highs’—are parked over the south and southeast of Australia.
These systems act like a stubborn roadblock, preventing the usual west-to-east movement of weather patterns.
The result: clear skies, sunny days, and little rain for the southern states, while the east coast sometimes gets a drenching from moist onshore winds.
High-pressure systems also bring northerly winds to places like Victoria, dragging in warmer air and keeping temperatures elevated. And when the skies are clear, the sun’s rays have free rein to heat up the ground during the day.
Interestingly, the usual climate drivers we hear about—like El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole—have been relatively quiet this autumn. That means the unusual warmth is less about those big oceanic patterns and more about local atmospheric conditions.
Will winter be warm too?
So, what does all this mean for winter? According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal outlook, there’s a strong chance that the warmth will linger.
Both daytime highs and overnight lows are tipped to be above average for much of the country. While we’re unlikely to escape the odd cold snap (it is winter, after all), the overall trend points to a milder season.
Rainfall predictions are less certain. Some areas may continue to miss out on much-needed rain, while others could see more typical winter showers.
The bottom line: expect a warmer-than-usual winter, but keep an umbrella handy just in case.
The climate change connection
It’s impossible to talk about these trends without mentioning climate change. Scientists are clear: human-caused global warming is making late-season heat events more common and pushing up average temperatures across the board.
As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, we can expect more autumns like this one—and, over time, warmer winters too.
What’s less certain is how rainfall patterns will change. While some regions may get drier, others could see more intense downpours. For now, the only sure thing is that Australia’s climate is becoming more unpredictable.
What does this mean for you?
For older Australians, these changes can have real impacts. Warmer winters might mean lower heating bills and fewer cold-related health issues, but they can also bring challenges—from increased bushfire risk in dry areas to the stress of drought on gardens and local food supplies.
And for those who love a good winter getaway or a spot of snow, the season may look a little different in years to come.
Tips for navigating a warmer winter:
Stay sun smart: Even in winter, UV levels can be high on clear days. Don’t pack away the sunscreen just yet!
Watch your water use: If you’re in a dry area, keep an eye on garden watering and look for ways to save water at home.
Check in on your health: Warmer nights can disrupt sleep, and changing weather can affect chronic conditions. Stay in touch with your GP if you notice any changes.
Be bushfire aware: Dry conditions can increase fire risk, even in winter. Make sure your home is prepared and stay up to date with local alerts.
Have your say
Have you noticed the warmer weather this autumn? Are you looking forward to a milder winter, or do you miss the chill? How are you preparing for the season ahead? Share your thoughts and tips in the comments below—we’d love to hear from you!
As always, we will keep you updated on the latest weather trends, climate news, and practical advice for living well—whatever the weather throws our way. Stay tuned, and stay comfortable!
