14th Jun 2017

Political pundits betting on the PM calling an early election

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Political pundits betting on the PM calling an early election
Leon Della Bosca

Political pundits believe that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may be forced to call an early election just two years into the Coalition’s three-year term.

Both Liberal and Labor Party electioneers have been told to be ‘campaign ready’ for a mid-2018 election, with August or September the most likely months for Australians to go to the polls.

If the Government were to serve its full term, the next election would be in November 2019. But falling approval ratings and the risk of ‘donation fatigue’ may mean that the PM is better served calling an election sooner rather than later.

The problem is that there is a slew of state elections due in 2018 and early 2019.



The Victorian state election campaign will run from October 2018 through to late November, and New South Wales, South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania are also in line for early 2019 elections.

The feeling among political experst and the Labor Party is that Mr Turnbull will call an early federal election to minimise the risk of ‘donation fatigue’ caused by six consecutive state elections.

One senior Liberal campaigner said that his money was on a mid-2019 election.

"My money would be on everything being ready to go in a year from now. You want the option to go early," he said.

A Labor source agreed, saying that a likely window for the next federal election would be August/September 2018.

There have been signs that the Coalition is preparing for an early election, including announcements on education funding, the Finkel review and the funding of the NDIS among others.

If the current Newspoll is anything to go by, should an election be held today, the Coalition would be swept from office.

Is the PM wise to call an early election? Or is he signing his own death wish?

Related articles:
Coalition dumped in opinion polls
Coalition attacks Labor over NDIS
Older Australians deserting the PM





COMMENTS

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kinkakuji
14th Jun 2017
10:29am
- "The ABS, the damned ABC, the useless SBS, $3billion worth of broken Navy ships, Muslim schools, and Halal certifiers scamming the public and their coffers. Because of the coverup culture there is only one cure for this terminal cancer in our systems and that is a totally new government willing to ruthlessly purge the bureaucracy and create massive fines and jail terms for transgressors. Now who can that party be? Not to mention silent partner of all these thieves and scammers, the Australian Media. Proud liars and manipulators of 'news' now hides the truth from the population because it conflicts with their socialist bench marks. The Media, a once proud and honourable profession is now no more than an organised gang of street walkers and backroom prostitutes.
Placido
14th Jun 2017
11:07am
Damn that Murdoch!
Paicey58
14th Jun 2017
12:02pm
So who do you suggest to fix the problems you have outlined???
arbee
14th Jun 2017
1:54pm
I can only fully agree with your comments, only problem there is only ever likely to be either Liberal or labor in power and as bad as Liberal are, Labor's policies are even more in favour of the problems you mentioned. More independents make it even more impossible to govern. I hope it never comes to pass, but I can see a future with all in brawls in parliament as we sometimes see on news services in other countries.
MICK
14th Jun 2017
11:30am
Come on leon, are you serious? Sorry to sounds like one John McEnroe but the suggestion that we will have an early election leaves me dumbfounded. The reasons:

1. did you see the coal/electricity debate in the last few days? The government has its coal MPs 'fighting' with others who just want to be re-elected. Frydenburg's U-turn on coal should be seen for what it is: re-electioneering.
2. this government is about as unpopular a government as you would ever see having attacked average citizens in its Class Warfare battle. Average Australians and retirees are being savaged like never before and pay increases are being handed to the rich on a platter. And we have a "Budget emergency"?

Even the biased right wing media which controls most every major outlet cannot take away the bad taste or falling living standards of ordinary citizens. Whilst the Murdoch Press and other big business controlled media outlets will preach the normal hate campaign towards Labor when the next election campaign starts even it will not stop this government being spat out like the piece of flem it is.

I'll be a monkey's uncle if this lot have an early election. Whilst the change in talk around coal may be a sign that it is on this government currently has no chance of being re-elected as only the mentally challenged and rusted on stoolies will vote for it.
I've got $10 on no election in 2018 leon. Interested?
Rod63
14th Jun 2017
2:11pm
Well said Mick. I think you are right (PS the word is phlegm - weird spelling, I know).
JAID
16th Jun 2017
9:43am
And regardless of whether the incumbents would be game, is it fair to the taxpayers? Currently, they are elected to do a job for a time excepting extraordinary circumstances. Do the time.
Troubadour
14th Jun 2017
11:41am
Hasn't done the UK any good - look at the turmoil they are in !!
The sad fact is that we do not have any true Statesmen any more,
who stuck to their guns and said what they meant and meant what they
said !!
Spitfire
15th Jun 2017
11:05am
To true
Spitfire
15th Jun 2017
11:05am
To true
Old Man
14th Jun 2017
11:47am
Oh yes, Turnbull will certainly call an early election. He must be over the moon with the result of the last early election call. Theresa May will probably agree with Turnbull calling an early election too, see how well her decision worked out. Seriously, Turnbull will never call another early election, in fact Turnbull may not be in a position to call anything the way he is going at present. His party is openly arguing about proposed policies and while the latest argument should have been thrashed out, Turnbull chose to close down the meeting to speak to a group of sportspeople. He has not only lost the support of a lot of his party but, more importantly, he has lost the respect of most of his party.
MICK
14th Jun 2017
1:02pm
Nice to have an agreement OM. I think leon is gilding the lily today.
George
14th Jun 2017
9:04pm
I fear you are right, OM, but not just for the reasons you mention. Turnbull's ego is the reason he wants to remain PM for as long as possible, and he will not take a risk as long as possible.

I say we should all support an early election - to throw out all sitting MPs (Liberal, Labor & Greens)!
JAID
16th Jun 2017
9:45am
:-) that may not leave too many to do the job George
musicveg
14th Jun 2017
1:46pm
Maybe Turnbull is just ready to get his retirement pension.
George
14th Jun 2017
9:06pm
He doesn't need the money, it's all about his ego as he feels his rightful place on earth is to be the PM.
JAID
16th Jun 2017
9:48am
Then we wouldn't get any more Trump take-offs Mveg.
Rod63
14th Jun 2017
2:00pm
The Tasmanian state election is due in March 2018, not 2019, Leon.
JAID
16th Jun 2017
9:49am
Yes, and I argued against longer terms.
Rod63
14th Jun 2017
2:02pm
"One senior Liberal campaigner said that his money was on a mid-2019 election.
"My money would be on everything being ready to go in a year from now. You want the option to go early," he said."

That Liberal is wrong. A year from now will be mid 2018, not mid 2019, so what is he on about?
niemakawa
14th Jun 2017
4:43pm
Lib/Lab/Greens all puppets of the UN and all Gloablists in outlook. Change for the better will only come when these parties cease to wield their power. That can only be achieved by the voting public. I will be voting for a party that puts Australia's needs and its people first. I will vote for One Nation or ALA. Never will I vote for the Globalists.
niemakawa
14th Jun 2017
4:43pm
Lib/Lab/Greens all puppets of the UN and all Gloablists in outlook. Change for the better will only come when these parties cease to wield their power. That can only be achieved by the voting public. I will be voting for a party that puts Australia's needs and its people first. I will vote for One Nation or ALA. Never will I vote for the Globalists.
Jtee
14th Jun 2017
7:35pm
Changes to the asset test for those already retired and on the pension hitting many hard without the chance to "fix" the loss. Spend those savings on giving wealthy companies a tax cut - that's cool - NOT!!!! Spend those savings on other worthless things to make the country look "good".
Bring on an election. As stated before, my lifetime of voting for the Liberal party has come to an end. Get some useful people in politics who can look after the country and those who worked hard to develop it. Get politicians strong enough to stand up for the average Aussie.
niemakawa
14th Jun 2017
8:37pm
Libs/Lab/Greens Globalists parties, their allegiance is to the UN and the elite that back them ( Soros e.g.) Australia and its people are way down on the list of their priorities. They care not about our security and continue with their policy of allowing terrorists to roam free in this Country. Enough said I think.
ex PS
15th Jun 2017
9:15am
I am sick and tired of politicians calling early elections for purely internal political reasons. Bring it on so that we can punish these political morons for wasting our time.
Typical Right Wing government, totally out of touch with the needs and wants of the people they are supposed to be representing, sooner we cut the losers loose the better.
Then the winners can blame them for everything that goes wrong under their watch for the next four years.
The first thing they can blame them for is the $80 million debt they will leave the Australian taxpayer for their failure to address crimes against humanity uncured over the Magnus Island fiasco. Yes we have admitted to committing crimes against innocent people and are now having to pay hush money out of court.
Yer man
16th Jun 2017
9:12pm
Wish we had leaders who lead.
niemakawa
16th Jun 2017
10:06pm
We have them but they are leading us down the road to perdition.

You want Australia to survive then do not vote for any of the Globalist parties Lib/Lab/Green.


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