Eradication, elimination, suppression: what do they really mean?

Eradication, elimination, suppression: let's understand what they mean before debating Australia's course.

Eradication, elimination, suppression: what do they really mean?

Anita Heywood, UNSW and C Raina MacIntyre, UNSW

The current surge in community transmission of COVID-19 in Victoria has brought renewed discussion of whether Australia should maintain its current ‘suppression’ strategy, or pursue an ‘elimination’ strategy instead.

But what do these terms actually mean, and what are the differences between the two?


Read more: As restrictions ease, here are five crucial ways for Australia to stay safely on top of COVID-19


In theory
Disease eradication means a global absence of the pathogen (except in laboratories). We achieved this for smallpox in 1980. Diseases suitable for eradication are usually those where humans are the only host, and where there’s an effective vaccine or other prevention strategy.

Disease elimination relates to a country or a region, and is usually defined as the absence of ongoing community (endemic) transmission.

Elimination generally sits in the context of a global eradication goal. The World Health Organisation (WHO) sets a goal for eradication, and countries play their part by first achieving country-wide elimination.

Cases and small outbreaks may still occur once a disease is eliminated – imported through travel – but these don’t lead to sustained community transmission.

Finally, disease control refers to deliberate efforts to reduce the number of cases to a locally acceptable level, but community transmission may still occur. Australia’s current suppression strategy, though seeking to quash community transmission, can be classified as disease control.

In practice
Elimination and suppression strategies employ the same control measures. For COVID-19, these include:

- rapid identification and isolation of cases
- timely and comprehensive contact tracing
- testing and quarantining of contacts
- varying degrees of social distancing (lockdown, banning mass gatherings, keeping 1.5m distance from others)
- border controls: restricting entry through travel bans, and quarantine of returning international travellers
- face masks to reduce transmission.

The differences between a suppression strategy and an elimination strategy are the strictness, timing, and duration with which these measures are applied, especially travel restrictions.

For example, under a suppression strategy, physical distancing requirements might be lifted while there’s still a low level of community transmission. But under an elimination strategy, these measures would remain in place until there’s no detectable community transmission.

What’s realistic for COVID-19?
First, the prospect of eradicating COVID-19 is likely no longer feasible, even with a vaccine.

People without symptoms may be able to spread COVID-19, which makes it difficult to identify every infectious case (SARS, for example, was only spread by people with symptoms). And if the virus has an animal host, animal reservoirs would also need to be eradicated.

So what about elimination?

For measles, elimination is defined as the absence of endemic measles transmission for more than 12 months. Countries must demonstrate low incidence, high quality surveillance and high population immunity.

Imported cases in unvaccinated returning travellers and occasional small outbreaks continue to occur, but a country will lose its elimination status if community spread lasts longer than one year.

The majority of the Australian population is immune to measles, which lowers the probability of sustained outbreaks. But most Australians remain susceptible to COVID-19.

So future sustained outbreaks, such as the current Victorian outbreak, will remain possible until we can vaccinate the population – even under an elimination strategy.


Read more: Lockdown, relax, repeat: how cities across the globe are going back to coronavirus restrictions


As we have with measles, for COVID-19, we need a definition of elimination with specific criteria that can be measured.

Declaring COVID-19 ‘eliminated’ after the absence of community transmission for a few weeks means little during a pandemic, and may lead to complacency in the community. This period should be more like a few months.

Effective suppression can lead to elimination
While the federal government continues to advocate for its suppression strategy, some states have demonstrated absence of community transmission.

International arrivals to these states (and to New Zealand) are comparatively small, and the virus was always going to be more difficult to contain in cities with substantial international arrivals and high population densities, such as Sydney and Melbourne.

To achieve and sustain national elimination of any infectious disease during a pandemic is ambitious. It requires an epidemiologic definition with measurable criteria, significant resources and almost complete closure of international borders.

But maintaining the right for Australian citizens and residents to return to Australia means the borders are never fully closed, whether under a suppression strategy or elimination strategy.

So ultimately, both strategies are susceptible to outbreaks of COVID-19 in the community as long as the pandemic endures.

It will always ebb and flow
An elimination strategy would not necessarily have prevented the current outbreak in Victoria, particularly if social distancing restrictions had already been lifted.

Whether Australia continues with its suppression strategy or opts to switch to a defined elimination strategy, either approach will require continued vigilance. This could include intermittent reinstating of restrictions or targeted containment around hotspots as transmission ebbs and flows.

And whatever name we give to Australia’s approach, neither Victoria or New South Wales have accepted any level of community transmission. Both have gone hard to stop community outbreaks that have arisen, and that’s a good thing.

But long-term maintenance of periods of elimination are unlikely to be possible until we have a vaccine.


Read more: Which face mask should I wear? The Conversation


Anita Heywood, Associate Professor, UNSW and C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

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    COMMENTS

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    BillF2
    17th Jul 2020
    10:29am
    Realistically, human beings are not going to be able to eradicate the covid-19 virus while governments keep these viruses in their laboratories for potential use in biological warfare. Furthermore we don't know if this virus is being deliberately spread in spite of the denials from those governments and their lackey health officials.
    As far as elimination is concerned, there is considered to be only one course of action - quarantine for those not severely affected, and hospital/ICU for the severely affected. No effort is made to investigate alternative, less expensive methods of treatment, which if not entirely eliminating the virus, at least make it less of a problem and allow life to return to normal. After all, we live with colds and the flu virus.
    Suppression entails continual rounds of lockdown and easing, effectively destroying normal life, economically and socially.
    So none of the proposed courses of action against Covid-19, as currently adopted, is going to bring Australia back to what it was last year. The only realistic course is elimination, as far as possible, by throwing everything into finding out what works best against the virus, whether modern or traditional remedies. If that effort is not made, then we face a bleak and impoverished future.
    Farside
    17th Jul 2020
    4:29pm
    We will learn to live with covid-19. Treatments for covid are improving by the month as more is learned about the disease.

    The recent outbreak in Melbourne is a clarion call to all of what can happen when anarchy prevails. Melbourne would not be at 2000+ active cases if not for the family and friends flustercucks and their wilful disregard for common sense guidelines.

    Suppression is a realistic long term strategy together with improved treatments, a well managed and supplied health system and reasonable behavioural changes - like personal hygiene, not soldiering on without a mask, respecting social distances. Suppression involves a proportionate response to dealing with outbreaks, identifying and isolating the infected, and protecting the vulnerable e.g. aged care homes so as not to overwhelm the health system (which has been expanded).

    If we do it right the silver lining is suppression will also dramatically reduce the spread of other contagions in the community e.g. flu, colds, gastro.


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