Retirement ramifications of Donald Trump's victory

How should Australian retirees view Trump's victory?

Retirement savings graph

In the wake of the failure of the polls and pundits to predict a Trump victory, share markets around the world took a massive dive. We asked leading commentator Marcus Padley how Australian retirees might view this shock result.

Well we have another amazing failure of the polls and the bookies. Trump was paying $5 for a win. It’s Brexit all over again. The markets bounced two days after the Brexit sell off, will they do the same thing again?

Arguably, this is of less significance than Brexit, which is the beginning of the dismantling of a significant global economic union. This is simply the replacement of a reasonably sensible US President with a man who lacks credibility. Congress will contain him and you never know, he might do OK in his role as Ambassador if Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger are anything to go by. The ‘Trumps in the White House’ would have been a brilliant comedy show before the election...now it’s a reality show and it will be hilarious.

But it will be a ‘show’…and one day it will end.

The IMF has said this will kick off a global recession which is almost certainly wrong and is based on the US adopting a Trump like protectionist trade policy. He is inexperienced but he is not stupid and his advisers are not stupid. The US is not going to shoot itself in the foot on trade.

It has injected some economic uncertainty – that’s not good for markets short term but we will rationalise it and start buying again when the price is right whoever is in the White House.

A US interest rate rise is now less likely but the US dollar is going to weaken short term. The Australian dollar should rise. Again … all short term.

Gold will rise temporarily until the market rationalises its fear of Trump which it will do quickly.

If he really is anti-Wall St he will stop feeding them printed money. It was always a Wall St rort that they didn’t funnel money into the economy but used it to make more money investing in anything with a higher return than 0% which is what the money cost them to borrow. This has to be worrying the share prices of the big investment banks and it is morally about time, but it shouldn’t upset Australia.

Is there a likelihood of contagion? This anti-establishment vote is a political lead that could have implications for politics in other countries.

Or possible failure? Trump has said a lot of things. A lot of Americans think he will make a difference, find them jobs, improve their lifestyles. What if he fails. The Trump dream is so fragile, based as it is on a show full of words not reality, Trump risks being an instant let down for all those who voted for him and the political backlash and void will not be good for the economy.

Where to for the markets from here?

  • The S&P 500 is trading on 24x against the long-term average of 17x. It has room to correct further.
  • The markets were in downtrend already; this confirms the break of the uptrend that’s been in place since February. In the face of the current downtrend there’s absolutely no rush to buy.
  • Any market operator with any experience will tell you that moments of extreme sentiment are almost always an opportunity. Your game is not to make grand declarations about the long term, but to let the market find its level and time the buying, which means waiting for the bottom not predicting it. When the rally starts, that’s when you get involved, not before, and with proper discipline (quite easy) you can protect yourself from a mistake.

 

What would you do?
Our game now is to wait for the market to hit its extreme and buy those stocks we’ve always wanted to invest in but haven’t. There are a lot of them and the reality is that Trump’s appointment will have no impact on company earnings for many of these companies. Ultimately I see this as a real opportunity to take advantage of a negative sentiment extreme. But don’t jump in straight away…that would be a grand declaration that you can’t make today. We'll try and time it for you in the Newsletter. 

The ASX 200 Chart now 
This year's uptrend is well and truly broken. But note the big tail on the last candle. We closed 105 points off the low today. On top of that, as I write the media and the shocked are getting their heads around it and the US Dow Futures have bounced from being down almost 800 points to being down less than 300. The market is already rationalising it. There is a price at which you buy whoever is in the White House. 

 

This is an edited version of Marcus Padley’s summary of likely effects of a Trump Presidency on shares. To read Marcus’s full report, Marcus on Trump, visit Marcustoday.com.au





    COMMENTS

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    10th Nov 2016
    10:35am
    The market is up 150 points at the moment what more does anyone want and it could probably keep going up subject to the normal fluctuations.
    Trump got a job as president because he has vast business experience and gave the American people some hope whereas Clinton had done nothing for years and offered no hope to a lot of Americans afterall she has no business experience at all.
    ghoti
    10th Nov 2016
    11:13am
    Trump might have vast business experience, but what has he actually built? How is he going to restore the jobs of middle- and working-class white Americans? In the meantime, what damage will he do to race relations, minorities, the environment, women, and so on? The white supremacists to whom he is beholden are not going to let him step back from the extreme positions he took in his campaign. In this country he has empowered right-wingers like Bernardi, Christensen and Hanson, who might now form a new party that will follow Trump's lead. Tax cuts for the rich - these will "trickle down" to the workers - you know: a rising tide lifts all boats. Yeah, right. Even John Howard admitted that under his watch the rich got richer but the poor didn't get poorer, thus disproving the trickle-down theory …
    Brissiegirl
    10th Nov 2016
    2:00pm
    Ghoti, the sooner Bernardi, Christensen and Hanson form a movement that emulates the new POTUS, the more enjoyable will be my retirement. You don't help the poor by tearing down the rich.
    TREBOR
    10th Nov 2016
    3:01pm
    Aye - but ye do help the rich by tearing down the poor...
    Anonymous
    11th Nov 2016
    6:54am
    Makes me laugh the way people speak of Trump's business experience....Almost making the bloke sound like some sort of 'rags to riches' success story dismissing the fact that Trump has never really had to struggle given his father was a wealthy man...And let's face it starting with money always makes getting on in the world a whole lot easier. i.e. Gina Rinehart.

    Also really easy for Trump to talk 'big' on the campaign trail exploiting the naivety of the desperate, tapping into and inciting racist forces etc. that like Australia doesn't take much scratching of the surface to locate in some, in seeking out scapegoats to blame for the global mess, and claiming he'll solve all their problems over night...

    Yep just like Hanson, Christensen and Bernardi, Trump's simplistic approach to massively complex global dynamics and forces has a appeal but is 'pie in the sky' and will not come to nothing.....

    Sadly and a personal opinion only Trump's election to office has overtones of Hitler's 1930's Europe i.e. solving economic problems by blaming and scapegoating certain groups of people and making it acceptable to do so.....

    Masses of people are being left behind in western democracies - with 'the rich getting richer' and 'the poor staying or getting poorer' but believe the answers lie closer to those offered by people like Bernie Sanders than those offered by Trump....
    Anonymous
    11th Nov 2016
    7:53am
    Yes Shetso1 no doubt a left winger who has now become very unpopular with your political correctness and tear down the rich to help the poor who mostly are bludgers anyway
    Anonymous
    11th Nov 2016
    8:27am
    Roby,

    Know a lot of 'working poor' people who work their guts out and never get ahead, and at best can only stay afloat, and in some cases one payday away from poverty, homelessness that sort of stuff....

    But hell yeah demonise and label 'the poor' as lazy with your sweeping incredibly simplistic generalisations if it suits your agenda and makes you feel good...

    But I think the root causes of 'poverty' are somewhat more complex and largely lie in historical systemic societal inequalities which have been normalised, thus making it seem as though 'the poor' are to blame and somehow inherently flawed or inferior ...when systemically they are basically set up to fail making their clawing their way out of poverty into comfortable affluence almost impossible.....

    Simplistic and incredibly unfair to make assumptions that 'the poor are poor because they are lazy' ignoring and dismissing all other variables that impact on the creation of societal poverty...
    Rae
    11th Nov 2016
    9:09am
    Roby perhaps the rich in the US who have had 138% productivity increase in wages could share a bit of it with the poor who work just as hard for a 0.5% share. That way the money could mix around a bit instead of ending up in $300 million dollar mansions.

    There's the problem.

    Forty years of all the growth going to a few at the top.

    Time for a General Strike until the redistribution of the growth in money supply get's sorted out a bit more fairly.
    Anonymous
    11th Nov 2016
    10:40am
    Yes Rae you are now doubt a devout Communist and of the left people like you are the reason why countries are struggling now.
    Anonymous
    14th Nov 2016
    7:58am
    Roby, I can agree with your first comment up to a point, but you shoot yourself in the foot with your irrational accusatory responses to very sensible and correct comments from people who clearly understand wealth distribution issues far better than you do. There is nothing ''Communist'' or ''left'' about recognizing that inequity is a major problem In modern societies and that wealth does not ''trickle down'' effectively. If it did, poverty would have been eliminated in Australia during the Howard era. Instead, the rich got much richer and the poor continued to struggle against the odds.

    Happily the stock market is rising again. Trump may well deliver benefits. He was elected by the ''silent majority'' who are clearly sick of being silent in the face of destruction of the social values and economic opportunities they want to retain. Brexit was also a result of the silent majority tiring of extremism and the destruction of the middle class. We need a similar outcome in Australia. What the result will be of the silent majority gaining some ground is yet to be seen, but I, for one, welcome the promise of change. And I think it's way too early to start making dire predictions. Let's give the man a chance, and hope he might surprise the nay-sayers. But Rae and Shetso1 are, sadly, 100% correct in their posts. Battlers are getting a very raw deal. Pay is generally not accurately related to effort and often not to ability either. Inheritance, social class, opportunity, and politics are the more reliable determinants of wealth. And it is this gross inequity - not inequality - that has caused our current economic malaise. Leading economists around the world are in agreement on that.
    Rae
    14th Nov 2016
    1:24pm
    Thank you Rainey. My family had a hoot about the communist call over the weekend.

    Funnily as soon as you point out the facts of the wage stagnation all sorts of accusations fly. I really don't understand if it is business people terrified they haven't got enough and might have to share or workers feeling really bad because they realise they've been done over and it's too late now.

    With the huge inequality looming and getting worse combined with the hundreds of trillions of debt and the thousands of trillions of derivatives riding on those debts I can't see happy days in the longer term. Historically it always ends in tears but who knows this time may be different.

    The market hates uncertainty and with Trump in there is a certain stability. He may do some infrastructure builds and work out the overwhelming debt as he's been in and out of problems himself.
    Time will tell if ROEs match up with share prices. There is no match now. The market is overpriced in my opinion.

    I missed the very short time to get in on Wednesday. Glad OG managed it. I was watching but went off to Tai Chi with a mate. Still I was pretty calm about the drop and recovery and missing it. All that Chi I expect.
    I'll spend the money on some thing else.
    Captain
    10th Nov 2016
    11:08am
    Today is a buying opportunity but don't get too greedy.
    Old Geezer
    10th Nov 2016
    1:14pm
    I bought yesterday. Too late today.
    Hasbeen
    10th Nov 2016
    1:25pm
    Don't expect too much sense Captain, Kaye's extreme bias is overflowing ..again.
    Captain
    10th Nov 2016
    9:05pm
    I also bought yesterday, however there were small caps earlier today that were good value.

    They are only meant to garner a small % profit in order to fund our next short o/s holiday.
    ozirules
    10th Nov 2016
    11:08am
    When I was a very young boy a trump was what my parents politely called a fart. I guess we will soon know if the new president can create more than just a lot of wind and a bad smell.
    The world is crossing their fingers and pinching its nose in anticipation.
    Crashbang
    10th Nov 2016
    12:51pm
    sounds like a greens voter
    wally
    10th Nov 2016
    12:07pm
    Do I detect a whiff of political bias here? Methinks Ms Fallick is all too willing to swallow whole the pronouncements of the IMF regarding the economic ramifications of Trump's electoral triumph in their "the sky is falling" predictions. The problem is that journalists are all too willing to report. repeat and then embellish what organisations like the IMF put forward. As recently as yesterday the pundits were all predicting a Clinton victory and we all now know how that turned out.


    so let's see a bit more original thought and less parroting of opinions that reflect the prejudices of the activist/journalist passing on their particular version of the truth.
    PAYEdmydues
    10th Nov 2016
    12:23pm
    Ms Fallick does not mention the IMF.
    Marcus Padley says that the IMF comments about global recession are 'certainly wrong'.
    I don't see the swallowing(?)
    Maybe you didn't read it.
    wally
    10th Nov 2016
    5:51pm
    So who chose to introduce and include the IMF pronouncement in the above article if mot Ms Fallick? If Ms Fallick was not going to credit the IMF statement, why include it? Ms Fallick chose not to disagree with the IMF announcement.

    Interestingly enough, the news reports that any share market losses that were incurred in response to the announcement of Trump's electoral win have now been recovered by Thursday afternoon.

    So how does this affect the thrust of Ms Fallick's premise that the ASX stock market is now broken beyond repair? It would seem that some of our journalists are all to willing to rush in where wise men fear to tread.
    maxchugg
    14th Nov 2016
    9:57pm
    The "Experts" were adamant, Trump couldn't win and if he did the stock market would crash. He did and it didn't.

    Now that he has won, he will be a disaster as President - wait and see! Maybe the media just might be wrong again - as the Newsweek cover suggests.

    We are hearing that the media will deal with Trump and "get him", just as they "got" Nixon. This gives the press too much credibility. It was Nixon who "got" Nixon.
    Gee Whiz
    10th Nov 2016
    12:16pm
    Why don't we all rush around like head- less chickens predicting doom and gloom for the world even before the ink is dry on the election results. Nothing like being a profit of doom even before we find out what Trump is capable of.

    Lots of things are said in the heat of an election campaign. Promises are made and broken ( look no further than the idiots we've got in charge) but in the afterward during a calmer time for reflection things change.

    Trump could just be the panacea America needs to become great again.

    He certainly couldn't any worse than the current bunch of corrupt cretins.

    Sic'em Donald.

    Go get the mega-rich bastards on Wall Street and the banks that brought a once great country to its knees.
    Anonymous
    10th Nov 2016
    12:42pm
    You seem to forget that no American President, not even the Trump, can carry out his promises, without the backing and support of those Wall Street operators and the global Banks, led by those U.S. Banks that gave us the GFC.

    It's no different to you planning to carry out renovations, buy a new house, buy an investment property, or buy a new car. You need to borrow off banks to do that. America, the country, is no different, and Trump is about to find that out.

    Then again, perhaps he'll be able to source new types of finance and ignore the major banks.

    I know a good friend, a Mr Khemlani - he tried to help out a previous, wonderful Australian PM, who got into a little financial bother - but those big nasty, controlling banks soon pulled the rug from under his great offer.

    Shame about that - we could have had a great business deal going with Mr Khemlani and his backers.
    There's a lot of that Black Money hanging around, it needs to be put to good use. Even more so, now that nasty Indian PM has outlawed nice, big, handy, currency notes.

    Of course, dealing with the Khemlani loan enforcers can be a slight problem, when the payments aren't made right on time - in cash - but some money greasing palms will soon fix that.

    I'm sure The Donald will be open to all sorts of suggestions and sources of finance for his amazing schemes that will soon see everyone in America rolling in great wealth - Donald in particular.

    Naturally, The Donald will be able to print lots more Greenbacks to pay off all that terrible debt that the DemonRats incurred.
    After all, it's just numbers on computers and bits of paper, isn't it!
    Crashbang
    10th Nov 2016
    1:04pm
    hey Aaron what did the banks do with the handout they got from the American Govt? yeh they kept it for themselves. not a cent went to the people, just like the pollies that serve Aus. did i say serve? shame on me.
    The markets of the world are being controlled by the wealthy rich, the oil companies, Arabs (all part of New World Order) & the corrupt Arab backed UN!!
    The good thing that might come out of this is that Liberals, Labour & Greens might feel a little uneasy in their seats while continuing to rip off the Australian tax payers & making decision the Australian people do not want.
    floss
    10th Nov 2016
    12:26pm
    Will Trump stuff my retirement, too late Joe Hockey did that.Working class Americans are also in for a shock they will get the same treatment as Australian workers do.
    Gee Whiz
    10th Nov 2016
    12:32pm
    Couldn't agree more.

    We could do with a Donald Trump in Australia.

    But we've got some pretty good people anyway like Nick Xenophon, Pauline Hanson, and Jaqui Lambie.

    Fair dinkum Aussies. Unlike the trash in the Liberal and Labor ranks.
    wally
    13th Nov 2016
    4:58pm
    If anybody can be held responsible for stuffing up any Australian's retirement or Super, it is the doom and gloom merchants that predicted all sorts of dire consequences should Trump win the election. Then, once the doomsters put forward this furphy, it was repeated endlessly by gullible journalists that failed to properly investigate what was being said instead of parroting what the doomsters said.

    This little scenario reminds me of the dreaded Y2K bug of a few years ago that spread like wildfire around the world until common sense prevailed then and things calmed down when no threat eventuated.
    Crashbang
    10th Nov 2016
    12:48pm
    Market has already bounced back significantly. no doom & gloom here from Trumps victory. Only doom & Gloom is Liberal, Labor & Greens are killing off Australia & retirement for normal working Australians.It is being deminished continually unless you are a pollie or overpaid executive.

    10th Nov 2016
    2:06pm
    Perhaps the author/s should check this morning's share market before publishing this rubbish.
    Anonymous
    10th Nov 2016
    3:36pm
    You had better be careful Eddie this biased websight will ban anyone who does not agree with there lefty ideology
    Anonymous
    10th Nov 2016
    4:13pm
    Yes, Roby, there seem to be a couple of narrow-minded, "minorities can do no harm" on the site team, but if you, as a contributor, say nothing that you really believe in as a counter to what is said by these "authors" or other contributors you are passively agreeing with what is in print. This is how people are stifled and hoodwinked, governments are influenced, unrest developed, and countries overthrown. If you well and truly believe in something SAY IT! If you don't you are doing yourself an injustice, like those people who were on the receiving end of the Hitlers and Stalins.
    RogerA
    10th Nov 2016
    2:12pm
    Thank you Marcus for a succinct and well-balanced analysis, but I see a puzzling inconsistency. Firstly, asserting that "The IMF has said this will kick off a global recession which is almost certainly wrong and is based on the US adopting a Trump like protectionist trade policy." Secondly, you recognise that "A lot of Americans think he will make a difference, find them jobs, improve their lifestyles. What if he fails[?]" To answer that unanswered question, my guess is that in trying to find them jobs via a much more protectionist trade policy, tax cuts, etc, he will indeed kick off a global recession, perhaps in 2-3 year's time. Where is the good evidence that "he is not stupid and his advisers are not stupid", in the context of having to deliver on his core promises to his newly won white working class male voters in the "rustbelt"? Non-delivery will make him just the same as the establishment politicians he has so successfully ridiculed in order to win.
    Old Geezer
    10th Nov 2016
    2:12pm
    Yesterday and today are good examples of the market's reaction to uncertainty. Market was not expecting a Trump victory so sold off but once it was certain who new president elect was it recovered.
    Rosret
    10th Nov 2016
    2:25pm
    One good thing about our recent history is that the hedge funds have learned how to buffer against Trumps and Brexits. The true effect will be seen when companies either benefit or go under with the policy changes he makes.
    TREBOR
    10th Nov 2016
    3:03pm
    Popcorn and beer in stock - waiting for the show to begin. The Don will be fine as long as 'the establishment' limits him to rhetoric.... beyond that? Who knows?

    Oliver Stone must be licking his lips at the prospect of yet another President movie.
    Oars
    10th Nov 2016
    3:16pm
    We ave no idea of how the yanks see their leaders. They all took a thumping during the GFC but Ozzie did not. We are not really in a position to shoot at Trump- look at this outfit with lawyer-upstarts and union-bagmen yelling at each other. The yank circus was a wake-up call to all yanks. Our farce (election) was just another waste of time and money. Oz has a massive yet unrecognized problem- apathy. Get rid of that -then we can throw rocks.
    Anonymous
    10th Nov 2016
    4:45pm
    "UNRECOGNISED"?? You MUST be joking! It was the Australian Alan Apathetic who said "She'll be right, mate", did nothing, turned around, and walked away, a LONG time ago. And he's still alive and doing nothing.
    Old Geezer
    10th Nov 2016
    5:04pm
    Agree the problem is not unrecognised at all. Aussies are too blaze and spend way too much time having a good time at the expense of everything else. When one realises that good management is the key to she'll be right mate life has it's real rewards. Welfare is way too easy and is paid to many people who don't need it. No one seems to be happy with their lot and the more you give people the more they want. Yes way too apathetic as well.

    Maybe we need a decent recession for people to realise how good life really is.
    KSS
    10th Nov 2016
    8:22pm
    When I got up this morning the sky hadn't fallen and the sun still came up. And to cap it off the share market had regained all the losses from yesterday and then some!

    Nothing like over dramatic reporting is there. Can we at least wait until January when Mr Trump actually becomes President before running round like headless chooks?
    Captain
    10th Nov 2016
    9:15pm
    The sun will come again in 3 months time when DT become President and also in 12 months time when DT realizes his own Party still do not agree with what he wants to do on many major domestic and foreign issues.

    In another 4 years the sun will also come up and a new President will appear and the process will be repeated.
    Eddy
    10th Nov 2016
    8:56pm
    One thing intrigues me about this whole election thing, how come the candidate with the highest number of votes didn't win the election (same as happened to Al Gore in 2000). Doesn't sound like a democratic result to me.
    Before someone starts lecturing me about the electoral college etc, I do understand the process. Just seems a voting process based on 1780 technology is not the best way for 2016
    Charlie
    10th Nov 2016
    9:51pm
    He might make everyone get a Donald Trump haircut to show North Korea how powerful he is
    micreen
    10th Nov 2016
    10:44pm
    What the result showed was that all the pundits were wrong, the stock market did not crash, just like the Oz election scare campaign.
    Right or wrong, Donald Trump is the person USA wants to lead them hopefully out of the big hole they are in.
    David
    10th Nov 2016
    10:55pm
    Not at all. I'm on a defined benefit pension for life.
    Macca
    10th Nov 2016
    11:16pm
    Take note Turnbull and Shorten.The result of Trump's win is a protest vote and easy to fathom.Ignore the silent majority in lieu of organised minorities at your own peril.Government should act to what the majority of voters want and not pander to minorities. You will find that most Australians more than ever will do the right thing and ensure that disadvantaged people and minority groups are looked after but don't want laws and minorities dictating to them.Macca

    11th Nov 2016
    12:26am
    This 'market' is manipulated by computer algorithms of the big boys and then you have govt manipulation to prop up bad economic policies, especially in the USA, it is a bit of a joke really and rather dangerous anyway... whether Trump is about or not!

    The Gold price is also a parody of a manipulated market with the USA desperate to maintain control of this 'market' so that it reflects that 'there is nothing to see here... the economy is good'. China is also helping to keep the Gold price down even though it is buying gold big time but it does so from special customers outside of the registered gold trades so the big sales are not reflective of the Gold price and investors don't get startled.

    Property market is overstretched due to negative gearing and investment options having been good in the past, so that also potentially a problem area.

    So, effectively, the investment markets were well and truly STUFFED well prior to Trump getting in... however, they can use that as an excuse to crucify any of Trump's policies.

    CLINTON...... I am GLAD this evil b*tch was not elected because of two things:
    1. it means that Julian Assange may get removed from her hit list and that the UK are "allowed" to let him go.
    2. this megalomaniac was going to take the world to war by introducing a 'no fly zone' in Syria which effectively means that the USA would shoot down Russian planes.

    I don't care what they do WITHIN the USA but as I belong to 'outside' of the USA, I would prefer NOT to be dragged in to a murderous USA world war, just to prop up the USA's failing economy and ensure that it stays as the sole world power (biggest and deadliest bully of the lot).

    Trump has said in his Presidential speech that he will be concentrating on the best for the USA but will negotiate 'partnerships' in a peaceful manner and stop waging war..... sounds bloody good to me!
    wally
    11th Nov 2016
    12:25pm
    Welcome back Musso!
    KSS
    11th Nov 2016
    8:43pm
    Could you be any more depressing Mussitate? Surely there is something more you missed?
    KB
    11th Nov 2016
    11:04am
    I am thankul that I live in Australia.Politics here does not get as ugly and divisive as it in America. Trump may do better than what we think.I am not a Trump supporter. Americans like Australians wanted change and a leader who lead them out economic recession.let alone the establishment..Give the man a chance, Unfortunately you need rich people to be able to help the poor .Rich people have companies that employ people
    PIXAPD
    11th Nov 2016
    1:36pm
    Trump told the people what many wanted to hear, he did the research and said to himself.. 'I will tell them this and tell them that, because they want to hear these things' ...Trump knows that there's one born every minute. It was a foregone conclusion that he would win hands down. Listen to a short fellow from 1933 and you will see what I mean>>>>> www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tGKfIJwrh4
    PIXAPD
    11th Nov 2016
    2:05pm
    BEWARE, the PANIC merchants ha ha ha


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