How did the polls get the election result so wrong?

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If you woke up on Sunday morning shocked by the result of the previous day’s election, you weren’t alone.

Polls had Labor comfortably winning the federal election, but they were wrong. For weeks, polling had predicted a Labor victory by 52-48, and exit polls had predicted 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis.

How did they get it so wrong?

Former Newspoll chief Martin O’Shanassy blames a flawed system – and phones.

“The reason that it’s hard to do good telephone polling is because the old White Pages – the phone book – doesn’t exist any more,” he said.

“Not everybody has a landline and the numbers that are published are incomplete.”

When Mr O’Shanassy held the reins at Newspoll, the company used probability sampling, where random telephone numbers are called across the country to reflect voters’ intentions.

“It was successful because it allowed every potential voter to have a say in the poll,” he said.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said the sampling used to be much more reliable, but changes to the system to incorporate automation had made it less so.

“They switched from an operator asking questions to randomly calling mobile numbers and robocalls,” said Mr Green.

“There has been a drop off in response rates and there has also been a drop off in the quality of the data.”

One man who did predict a Coalition victory – the same man who predicted Donald Trump’s ascendency against all odds – data mining expert from Griffith University Professor Bela Stantic, believes social media could provide a more accurate indicator of intentions. Professor Stantic’s method included analysis of two million social media comments and led him to predict that Labor would not get the swing it needed for victory.

“I am able to assess the opinions of people through their social media … other polling has a much smaller sample,” he said.

Polling companies have been lobbying for more access to all listed and unlisted numbers on the Government’s Integrated Public Number Database (IPND) to get more accurate readings of the population.

Until that happens, Mr Green believes there could be fewer polls in future elections.

“We saw a lot fewer polls in this election campaign than previous campaigns because media outlets don’t have the money they used to,” he said.

“Perhaps we will see a change in how many polls are done in the future … but it’s always up to people whether they trust them or not.”

The final outcome of the election is unconfirmed, with Mr Green’s election computer projecting the Coalition to win 75 seats versus Labor’s 65. Six seats will be shared among independents and the Greens have Melbourne sewn up.

Five seats are still undecided, meaning the Coalition still does not have a majority government.

The Coalition has been returned to power despite all predictions otherwise, but Prime Minister Scott Morrison has his work cut out for him. Under the current count, the Libs have 75 seats but still need to appoint a speaker, meaning the Coalition may need crossbench support to get its work done on the policy/legislation front.

It will undoubtedly need to rely on the crossbench’s support in the Senate to make any headway. Currently, it is predicted that the Coalition will have 34 members in the Senate out of 76 – five seats short of a clear run. This means the Coalition will need to appease the crossbench to secure its legislative program.

Were you shocked at how wrong the polls were? Will you ever trust polls again? Does the Morrison Government have a mandate for its legislation, considering political commentator Niki Savva says it didn’t take any policies into the Federal Election?

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Written by Leon Della Bosca

374 Comments

Total Comments: 374
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    The silent majority voted LnP in and good on them
    Aussies are sick of the left leaning media, climate change terrorists and big spending high taxing governments who want to take money of hard working aspirationals

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      left leaning media???? Most Media out lets, including the ABC now, it would seem are very far to the right! What a joke, they got in on the back of preferences in key seats from One Nation and United Aus Party and very negative coverage in that Media.

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      So it’s the media , and fringe parties fault
      Nothing to do with the fact that we have a democratic system and lnp got 42 % while labor got 30% of first preferences
      The majority didn’t want labor
      Hope Plenerscite if she becomes next labor leader keeps their retiree tax, negative gearing and climate scare policies – will keep scomo in charge for decades

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      Labor bled first preferences to Hanson and Palmer because their policies hurt too many of their own supporters. Then those minor parties second preferences flowed strongly to the government. These two factors lowered Labor’s primary vote and then destroyed their 2PP count.

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      Maureen..Do you really think the Coalition won honestly and fairly? The Labor Party had to deal against the Liberal Party, National Party, One Nation and Clive Palmer’s $60 Million anti Labor campaign which was funded by the Liberals and Murdoch so that their mining interest could be safe.

      It’s pathetic when we have lazy Australians that refuse to be educated and retrained for new job skills. Instead they will support ADANI for a handful of jobs and allow the artesian water basin to be polluted so that the profits can go off shore.

      These evil rich people don’t even look after the Cayman Islands. The place is a slum. Anyone that supports their greed agenda is a fool to them.

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      Hi Jackie, you conveniently omitted the support of the Labor Party by the Greens who polled 9% of the votes all preferences flowing to Labor, but don’t let the truth damage a biased argument.

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      Hi Jackie, you conveniently omitted the support of the Labor Party by the Greens who polled 9% of the votes all preferences flowing to Labor, but don’t let the truth damage a biased argument.

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      jackie please explain what you think was unfair about the election. I would also love to know how you know that the Liberals and Mr Murdoch funded Mr Palmer’s advertising campaign. The Liberals did not have a very big ‘war chest’ at all and no where near that of the Labor party. You must have some insider information so please share it with us all. You seem to ignore that the Labor party had the support of the Greens and Get-up, both far more cashed up than Ms Hanson.

      I realise you must be very upset at the way things have turned out but seriously, you need to get some perspective. Mr Shorten had 6 years to get his policies right. He lost three years ago, and he lost again now. Time for the Labor party to have a rethink.

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      Yes Jackie, the LNP won honestly and fairly. Consider all those preferences flowing to ALP from the daft greenies (more than would have been received by the LNP from Clive P.) So get over it and move on, though I realise that ALP voters have a difficult time doing that, given that such concepts are beyond their limited thinking. Typical ALP voters displaying their limited adaptability, not say intelligence, they blame everybody else but their unacceptable to the voters, slimy front bench, and mendacious policies towards the Aussie battlers. It wasn’t Clive or anyone else who lost the ALP the election, it was their incompetent front bench, and poorly thought through churlish policies.e.g. that vile Plibersek (don’t get me started on her husband who spent time in jail for importing heroin) saying that their policies were right, it’s the voters who were wrong.i.e. blame the voters not themselves. Well that is clearly not a way to win elections. How idiotic is that? It was her own beloved R.J. Hawke who said “the Australian people never get it wrong.”

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      AH Well inextratime. I guess we can then say that the liberals are supported by the liberal national party, the nationals and the country liberal party. They just hide it by calling it a coalition.

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      McDaddy, your comment is a huge losers joke. The ABC, right wing, only the furthest left wing voter in Australia could even contemplate that. I don’t think even Mick, who is pretty far left would agree with that comment od yours. So you want to whinge about preferences from One Nation and Palmer’s party, well what about the Greens preferences and support you always get in parliament, not to mention most of the minor parties that happen to get into parliament. Also Get Up, which shorten helped to establish was very active in every marginal seat, and employed very dirty tactics (many of them breaking the law).
      Just face the facts, SHORTEN was not very well liked and came across as very arrogant. A lot of labour supporters didn’t like him either and will be glad to see him gone from the leadership role now.

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      Correct Wsaton. And at at the end of the day the Libs won and the ALP didn’t. But I did forget to mention the heavily financed ‘Get Up’ mob who were funded by the unions and failed miserably to convince the public. In fact I think Get Up had a negative effect and the Labor Party may not be engaging them and their thug tactics in future elections.

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      Correct Wsaton. And at at the end of the day the Libs won and the ALP didn’t. But I did forget to mention the heavily financed ‘Get Up’ mob who were funded by the unions and failed miserably to convince the public. In fact I think Get Up had a negative effect and the Labor Party may not be engaging them and their thug tactics in future elections.

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      Jackie, the irony of Adani is that it will be highly automated and the lion’s share of FIFO jobs will largely go to Brisbane based workers. The nearby mining towns like Moranbah, Clermont, CT etc will see some flow-on for maintenance services, Bowen for Abbot Point coal loading and Townsville for admin, but it is all small bikkies and nothing much that will change the town fortunes. An extra scrap from the Royalties for Regions program will do little to help the coastal towns that swung in behind Christensen and Canavan. And wait for the CFMEU bitch and whine when Adani exports start cannibalising from other coal areas.

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      Jackie, yet another left wing supporter who has done nothing for the last year or so but complain about the government and try to tell us how much better off we would be under her communist type of regime, and now she has lost, all she can do is blame everyone else. Have a good look at your parties POLICIES, and the IDIOT you had as head of the party trying to push them down everyone’s throat, and then you may see why you lost the UNLOSEABLE election.
      By the way Jackie, I didn’t seem to see any mention from you of the labour supported and established group, Get Up, and the dirty tactics they employed in every marginal seat.
      Get over it, you lost.
      The only downside to this election result is that we will have to put up with your complaints for the next three years while the country goes ahead in leaps and bounds.

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      McDaddy…Yes, Murdoch owns most of our media and has always had a bias against the ABC.

      It tells you that the ABC is dominated by the Coalition when Morrison’s handpicked and appointed the Chairperson.

      Don’t be surprised the ABC will be privatised during the next three years.

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      Farside….I agree. Things have always been slow in Queensland. We are supposed to learn from our mistakes but some people never do.

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      Dave R in most seats Labor was first or second so their second preferences never came into it. If the result depended only on first preferences LNP would have done even better.

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      ABC far right Jackie and Farside? You only had to watch how glum Barry and his chums were on Sunday in their Insiders program. Hardly sounded like far right celebrating an unexpected victory. Tell me Jackie if ABC were such big LNP supporters, why would they want to privatise it?

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      jackie is such a poor loser,wow.

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      Mandy…The Coalition and One Nation want to get rid of the ABC because the reporters make them look less intelligent.

      Learn to read dear.

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      Mandy, ’tis not I saying ABC is far right, but I prefer it to most other media sources. Sky, 2GB and the commercial channels do little for me.

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      Maureen, Tanya is not running for the leadership which I am glad about because of nasty people like you who cannot even say her proper name. Unlike you, she is a kind, caring person. Arbee, there’s the word, ‘communist’ again, one of the derogatory terms aimed at the Labor and Greens.
      GetUp are nowhere near as nasty as the LNP and a few people on here.
      ABC is another reason we feared a LNP victory because it is not Murdoch and far right.

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      arbee….An $8 Billion a year burden on the economy just so the greedy don’t have to touch savings. How good is the age of entitlement?

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      Jackie the idea that people benefiting from franking credits are wealthy is not true. However if they are taxed at 30%, no matter what their income, it won’t be long before they are part of the welfare system and all the pension perks which cost the government far more than $8B.
      We need self reliant retirees. Their savings need to last a good thirty years post retirement.

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      Instead of whingeing about what Queenslanders did, why don’t Labor supporters get on to Anastacia and insist on her Govt NOT giving Adani a royalty holiday and free water?

      Or, better still, why don’t they get the Qld Labor Govt to shut down Adani, and then get help from the Liberal Federal Govt to have Australians (try Palmer, Forrest, Rheinhart, etc, or a combination) set up the coal mine with benefits flowing to Australia?
      That’s the kind of cooperation Australians would like to see between the major political parties.

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      GeorgeM I think Queenslanders found it an affront that southerners (the Greens) were coming up and telling them how they should run their State.

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      What a load of rubbish from McDaddy.

      On 6th May the Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews issued a statement “Victorian Liberals Must Explain Extremist Links” which included this statement:

      “Last week convicted criminal and neo-Nazi sympathizer Neil Erickson claimed he had met with prominent Liberal Andrew Hastie and Ian Goodenough, claims which were first denied but then shown to be true.”

      The supposedly “right wing” press ran with the story, obviously without any reasonable effort being made at fact checking, an astonishing omission, given the fact that the background of the originator of the story was well known. It would appear that, for some implausible reason, the “right wing press” was attempting to damage the electoral prospects of a “right wing” candidate.

      On Election day, – note the timing – Neil Erickson admitted to having lied, that the ”right wing” media did exactly as he expected, and published the story.

      Even now, searches of the internet and the papers from the “right Wing” Fairfax press available in my state carry no information about this event, the only source of information I have been able to find was “The Bolt Report”, which goes a long way towards explaining why there is currently a concerted effort to close this source of information down. Those who continue to raise accusations of right wing bias against this program and its host are remarkably defensive of the ABC which, they claim, is free from bias. Here is an opportunity to test their arguments in favour of the ABC –provide details of ABC coverage of this story.

      A major concern is that the ABC is a major source of news for people in the country, to allow this story to be presented as fact is reprehensible.

      Happily, and hopefully, Andrew Hastie will successfully sue the papers which ran this story, that “The Guardian” is one, the Sydney Morning Herald – Fairfax Press – apparently another. However, even if Hastie is successful this should not be enough. Surely such a blatant attempt to influence the outcome of an election with blatant untruths should warrant criminal charges against those involved.

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      What a load of rubbish from McDaddy.

      On 6th May the Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews issued a statement “Victorian Liberals Must Explain Extremist Links” which included this statement:

      “Last week convicted criminal and neo-Nazi sympathizer Neil Erickson claimed he had met with prominent Liberal Andrew Hastie and Ian Goodenough, claims which were first denied but then shown to be true.”

      The supposedly “right wing” press ran with the story, obviously without any reasonable effort being made at fact checking, an astonishing omission, given the fact that the background of the originator of the story was well known. It would appear that, for some implausible reason, the “right wing press” was attempting to damage the electoral prospects of a “right wing” candidate.

      On Election day, – note the timing – Neil Erickson admitted to having lied, that the ”right wing” media did exactly as he expected, and published the story.

      Even now, searches of the internet and the papers from the “right Wing” Fairfax press available in my state carry no information about this event, the only source of information I have been able to find was “The Bolt Report”, which goes a long way towards explaining why there is currently a concerted effort to close this source of information down. Those who continue to raise accusations of right wing bias against this program and its host are remarkably defensive of the ABC which, they claim, is free from bias. Here is an opportunity to test their arguments in favour of the ABC –provide details of ABC coverage of this story.

      A major concern is that the ABC is a major source of news for people in the country, to allow this story to be presented as fact is reprehensible.

      Happily, and hopefully, Andrew Hastie will successfully sue the papers which ran this story, that “The Guardian” is one, the Sydney Morning Herald – Fairfax Press – apparently another. However, even if Hastie is successful this should not be enough. Surely such a blatant attempt to influence the outcome of an election with blatant untruths should warrant criminal charges against those involved.

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      KSS, I live in a regional area in northern NSW, which covers two federal electorates. We have a free, local, weekly “Advocate” rag that, for most of the common people (including me), is the only regular press we read.

      In the Wednesday edition, the last edition before the Saturday election, the letters pages were filled with anti-Labor letters in the ratio of 13:2 of progressive-leaning letters. Some of these anti-Labor letters were barely understandable with crazy religious references, thoroughly illogical & contradicting conspiracy theories & fear-mongering lies about Labor introducing Death Duties legislation. There was no editorial intervention to put the record straight, as there often is when someone makes a false claim in the letters columns.

      One of the two progressive-leaning letters (the author is a regular letter writer, usually speaking about the injustices metered out to asylum-seeking refugees), was immediately followed by a far right wing letter, actually naming her & rubbishing her for everything she represents, including her previous week’s letter. Why did his letter immediately follow hers? It appeared to be strategically placed there, even though the content of his letter had nothing to do with the content of her letter, except that he specifically mentioned her name, putting her down.

      Further, the political election advertisements placed in amongst the letters were all pro-Nationals, pro-Liberals, pro-Clive Palmer or just plain anti-Labor, with one pro-Labor advertisement in the Arts section, pages after all the Letters pages.

      And this week’s edition, AFTER THE ELECTION??? Front page congratulations to one of the Labor candidates returned to office & an advertisement for the state Greens Member. I suppose they call this being fair to both sides – anti-Labor before the election & pro-progressive after the election. NO BIAS HERE.

      This local weekly rag is a template for all the local weekly rags throughout regional NSW & Qld, from what I’ve been told. They all have the same format for regular news with inserted local content for letters, events, arts, etc. They are all owned by News Corp Australia with Rupert Murdoch as the Chairman at the top of the food chain. Surprised?

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      Well Hoohoo the young up and coming voters don’t buy or read newsprint any more so Rupert may find it is going to be more difficult next election to try and sway voters that way.

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      I disagree, Misty, unfortunately. Trump is spending US$1 million per month on Facebook currently. Algorithms by search engines direct traffic to like-minded people – so both sides of thinking (progressive vs fear/conservatism), are in their own bubbles.

      Now that we know democracy is for sale (it IS Capitalism that runs the world now – even in Communist governments), we can presume big business will continue to do what it has always done & that is to protect its own interests. Of course, they are the only ones who can afford to protect their own interests. So, people be buggered!

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    Class warfare is dead, RIP

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      I don’t think so. Labor’s problem this time was they went to war with too many of the class they usually represent.

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      Agree Dave, Labor simply chose the Greens over the Blue collars, obviously thinking there were enough inner city Greens to get them over the line.

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      Dave that is bollocks. It was as the rich who screwed a fair go for ordinary ppl. Most sadly some ordinary ppl were conned by the rich.

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      Agree with you totally Dave. It is Batara who is speaking bollocks (the ALP trolls always have such colourful, grassroots expression, suppose it must be their education or lack of it).It was the ordinary working people supporting the LNP this time, and Morrison stood up for the Aussie battlers. How the times are a changing. it is now the ALP who have the supercilious born to rule attitude, and clearly the electorate don’t like it and aren’t falling for it.

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      Dave R…Labor never went to war with who they represented.

      The scare monger campaigns worked on the ignorant, always do.

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      Jackie, scaremonger campaigns ? Who was it who said that the cost of climate change policy was less than if there was no policy. If that wasn’t a scare mongering campaign then I don’t know what is. And to call people ignorant because they didn’t vote the way you did is classically crass.

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      Jackie, scaremonger campaigns ? Who was it who said that the cost of climate change policy was less than if there was no policy. If that wasn’t a scare mongering campaign then I don’t know what is. And to call people ignorant because they didn’t vote the way you did is classically crass.

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      Batara, didn’t you watch the election program? If you did, you missed noticing that the wealthy areas. all regarded as blue ribbon seats in the past, mostly voted against the coalition. Now why would they do that?

      If you were a multi-millionaire, where would you make your investments today? My bet is that your money would be on companies which produce equipment for “clean” energy. You would have done your research and known that investment in geothermal power were disastrous when the Rudd Government lost a mere $90 million in the Cooper Basin. You would know that $12 billion spent on desalination plants in the nation which, with the exception of WA, have not produced a drop of water and cost millions each year to remain in “hibernation.”

      Yet, investors are by nature risk takers You would be expecting that, by now, investment in clean energy would be safe because the problems of the past have been ironed out. So maybe investing in lithium would be a good move because everyone is going to want a lithium battery to store energy from their solar panels, aren’t they. Trouble is, when the lithium batteries fail after around 10 years, the risk is that the cost of replacing them will cause most to think that they are not viable and not replace them.

      Of course, lithium batteries might become more affordable, in which case the value of your investment will fall or maybe vanish entirely if other forms of storage at lower cost arrive.

      But the greatest problem of all is that climate change/global warming, in another decade, will be seen for what it is – the greatest fraud ever invented. Coal mines will operate again, the windmills will have died of old age and re-converted back to scrap metal.

      IWhy I say that coal mining will return is because the story about increased CO2 increasing global warming will also be seen as nonsense. About 10 years ago I predicted that the only effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide would be to increase plant growth on the planet, and was ridiculed for my comment. Yet today we see record crops, evidence that the surface of the earth absorbs more carbon dioxide than it produces, with the increased greening visible from space.

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      Batara, didn’t you watch the election program? If you did, you missed noticing that the wealthy areas. all regarded as blue ribbon seats in the past, mostly voted against the coalition. Now why would they do that?

      If you were a multi-millionaire, where would you make your investments today? My bet is that your money would be on companies which produce equipment for “clean” energy. You would have done your research and known that investment in geothermal power were disastrous when the Rudd Government lost a mere $90 million in the Cooper Basin. You would know that $12 billion spent on desalination plants in the nation which, with the exception of WA, have not produced a drop of water and cost millions each year to remain in “hibernation.”

      Yet, investors are by nature risk takers You would be expecting that, by now, investment in clean energy would be safe because the problems of the past have been ironed out. So maybe investing in lithium would be a good move because everyone is going to want a lithium battery to store energy from their solar panels, aren’t they. Trouble is, when the lithium batteries fail after around 10 years, the risk is that the cost of replacing them will cause most to think that they are not viable and not replace them.

      Of course, lithium batteries might become more affordable, in which case the value of your investment will fall or maybe vanish entirely if other forms of storage at lower cost arrive.

      But the greatest problem of all is that climate change/global warming, in another decade, will be seen for what it is – the greatest fraud ever invented. Coal mines will operate again, the windmills will have died of old age and re-converted back to scrap metal.

      IWhy I say that coal mining will return is because the story about increased CO2 increasing global warming will also be seen as nonsense. About 10 years ago I predicted that the only effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide would be to increase plant growth on the planet, and was ridiculed for my comment. Yet today we see record crops, evidence that the surface of the earth absorbs more carbon dioxide than it produces, with the increased greening visible from space.

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      TMac, it’s not class warfare that is dead – it’s democracy as we knew it.

      Among other lies (Death Duties), the LNP lied about our growth rate – it is half of what the government said it was before the election. The latest figures show three Quarters of negative growth = RECESSION. We need more money in the hands of the poor, not the rich. We need investment in infrastructure, not tax cuts. Labor avoided a Recession in the GFC by investment, not austerity, which is always the Liberals way. The Liberals claim to be better financial managers, but only for themselves & their rich friends, not for the people of Australia.

      The Big End of Town runs the show & they have convinced the little people, like John Howard’s “battlers” (who traditionally vote Labor because they are working class), that they will benefit when Big Business benefits (from tax cuts promised by the LNP). The battlers will get a bit extra (those with full time jobs) but the very rich will become very much richer in a disproportionate way from those same tax cuts.

      What does it matter if you get $20 extra a week from the promised tax cuts when your food & power bills, insurances, dental, medical, petrol & other utilities are all rising at a greater rate? These battlers have been duped into thinking “the trickle down” will reach them but what is “given” with one hand & (after you put in your tax return), is taken away with the other hand.

      Proof? Corporate profits: 20% growth. Wages: negative growth. Who’s really winning? We are being ripped off blind!

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    I’m not surprised that the polls got it wrong because we received so many calls to both our land line and mobile that were identical — same questions regardless of whether we had already voted or not. If other people got the same than the ‘sampling’ had to be wrong.

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      Back in the day polling was more straightforward with random sampling from the electoral roll and ringing landlines to obtain the 1200 or so responses from people who were largely influenced by four tv stations and broadsheet newspapers. This made for accurate polling. Contrast to 2019 with caller ID to block calls, social media as an information source, web streaming, declining journalism standards, shorter reader attention spans and acceptance of ‘fake’ news; it’s a much more diverse and complex environment and order of difficulty higher to obtain a reliable and representative sample.

      I suspect many people refuse calls from the pollsters to avoid being profiled and then sold off in a junk mail list to parts unknown might also be a contributing factor for not participating in polls.

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      Chat…Of course polls get it wrong. They are never reliable because the questions can be biased or restrictive. The respondents don’t have to be honest as well. I think smear mongering advertising campaigns should be banned. There should be more debates televised live and less fake kissing babies and attempts at real jobs.

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      If smear mongering advertising campaigns are to be banned doesn’t that mean we should abolish the ALP?????…..just saying

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      Dig by…The Coalition have always used smear and fear mongering campaigns to pursuance the uneducated. What’s new? Shorten has the decency to resign. You won’t see him rubbishing Labor. Yes votes from the Greens did help Labor. Labor won in debates hands down.

      Clive Palmer never paid his workers because he claimed to be broke.

      His $60 Million anti Labor campaigns must have been funded by a source with a self vested interest to destroy Labor’s credibility.

      It must have been Murdoch and the Liberal Party.

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      Jackie, in case you haven’t read the rich 20 list, Clive Palmer is a billionaire in his own right. He didn’t need to go cap in hand to Rupert Murdoch or the Liberal Party. And by the way in case you hadn’t noticed, he took a few heavy blows to the Liberal Party in his ad campaign.

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      Jackie, in case you haven’t read the rich 20 list, Clive Palmer is a billionaire in his own right. He didn’t need to go cap in hand to Rupert Murdoch or the Liberal Party. And by the way in case you hadn’t noticed, he took a few heavy blows to the Liberal Party in his ad campaign.

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      oh dear poor misunderstood struggling to deal with reality Jackie… you don’t realise how much harm you are doing to your own ALP trolling campaign (sigh!!!).. best put in the effort to point out your obvious failings….. If the ALP is so great how could anything that Clive Palmer did affect their credibility…, it was just that easy to consign Shorten to electoral oblivion. Of course it must have been Murdoch and the Liberal or what…. another possible explanation…could it be that it was shifty con man Bill, and his slimy associates (Plibersek Wong etc) who failed to convince the electorate. that must be the explanation otherwise we would have a Labour Government today (BTW just heard ScoMo now has 78 seats…..angst much???). I am sorry to throw logic at you Jackie, but you do leave yourself wide open…… So much for the intelligence of the ALP voter.

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      inextratime….May I remind you, your hero, Clive Palmer committed wage theft to honest hard workers. Many have had hardship and have lost their homes and families thanks to FAT Clive. Ordinary people get prison for a lot less.

      It’s people like Clive Palmer the Coalition admire.

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      Jackie perhaps Labor did win the debates (though very debatable), but they lost the election profoundly that they smugly expected to win. I know which position would rather be in. Winners are grinners!!

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      Is it any wonder that Labor did so badly when the Murdoch press was barracking for the Coalition, something like 27 negative front pages outy of 30 towards the Labor party in one newspaper anone and then Sky News doing there best to n a bad light nihght and day, and also most biased comments towards the ABC were to say that the ABC favoured the Coalition, c ontrary to what tghe Coalition commentators and supporters think.

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      Should read,”doing there best to put Labor in a bad light”. Sorry about the odd letters here and there, I still haven’t found my glasses and the light id not the best near my computer.

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    It’s very uncool in some circles to admit to being a conservative these days. So maybe not everyone is volunteering that information.

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      SuzeB…You are right. All their money making schemes have been exposed by Labor and they are embarrassed. They have problems with greed but don’t want to stop.

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      Does that mean they have guilty consciousness doing whats fair but want to be greedy.

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      So Jackie if they have been exposed by Labor then that must be why Labor lost so resoundingly and the LNP won.I know it is hard concept to get your head around (oligoneuronal anyone?) but the ALP lost, so if money making schemes were exposed it lost them the election. Doesn’t say much about their intelligence, it must be embarrassing to have such an unexpected win. Your logic is tangential to say the least and you are not doing your cause any good.The greed comes from people like Plibersek and her multiple investment properties. Hypocrisy much???

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      Rugby…Are you saying there are more rich, greedy people in Australia than the poor?

      I am sure they would have loved to have gotten a fair go instead of having to go without to keep the greedy fatter.

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      Well I am cool about being profoundly conservative on some issues and profoundly left wing (or so called progressive) on some others e.g. abortion on demand. Like most people I guess.

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      Digby… I am all for free contraception and abortion for the poor.

      If the poor stopped breeding slaves, that’s when the monetary system would go bust.

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      “free contraception and abortion for the poor”…….define poor???? So called not poor people get pregnant accidentally too .I am for abortion on demand for all , But if the so called well off wish to use private services for it, then they should pay, or hav e their private insurance do so. The public system should remain available for all, with the so-called well of having to pay extra tax if they do not have private cover ( as is the situation at present.) But hey we are getting into a whole different area here….. for another day perhaps.

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      such a poor loser jackie, ah well.

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      roy…You can hardly call 51% a win, especially with all the help Morrison received from the Nationals, One Nation, Clive Palmer and Murdoch.

      They just scraped it in. Watch Morrison wreck himself. He will blame Labor as usual.

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      The Labor voice has always been the loudest. I think most of us know talking to the one eyed is a waste of energy so having a voice on election day is wonderful.
      Now I wish they would get rid of all the people handing out how to vote ad forms and all their posters.
      Just leave a set of pamphlets in the booth and don’t make me feel as though I am running the gauntlet.
      How much paper is wasted on that one day. Millions of sheets.

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      jackie, you lost, end of, have an early night.

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    Still trying to figure out how Labor lost another unloseable election? Well Bob Hawke got it right when he said “Never underestimate the intelligence of The Australian voters”. He probably should have added “Especially in Queensland”, where Labor lost two seats and the LNP shored up their margins even in Peter Dutton’s Dickson where Labor and Get Up put in a huge effort.
    Why? Well Queenslanders don’t take kindly to a bunch of ratbags from the south telling them how to run their economy and create jobs so Bob Brown’s Anti-Adani Convoy couldn’t have come at a better time for the LNP, combined with Shorten’s fence sitting and the Palaszczuk government blocking and stalling over issues such as numbers of a common bush bird, the black-throated finch. Anastacia must be worried, she’ll be next.
    Combine all that with Labor’s big taxing agenda, it’s hit at self-funded retirees and the blank cheque it sought for an un-costed, over-ambitious climate policy and the result in other States is not surprising.
    Trying to get votes echoing Whitlam’s “It’s Time” with “Vote for Change, Vote for Change …” was also a mistake when Scott Morrison was facing a hostile Canberra Press Gallery in the National Press Club. Some people do remember that Whitlam had a huge loss in the election following his dismissal for sending the country broke with grandiose big spending agendas.
    So the voters said it’s not time to risk Shorten, we’ll stick with Scott Morrison and a stable economy.

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      A couple of points here Mikko and that is while much of what you said is correct the fact is that all print media in Queensland in major towns and cities is Murdoch owned. A little stated fact is that the state of the Australia economy when Whitlam was sacked was actually better than when Fraser lost the election.

      Recent history in this country shows that politician who win elections don’t survive as Prime Ministers. ScoMo did an excellent job is selling the Liberals to the public but being a great salesman does not necessarily mean that he will be a good P.M. The jury is still out on that.

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      A couple of points here Mikko and that is while much of what you said is correct the fact is that all print media in Queensland in major towns and cities is Murdoch owned. A little stated fact is that the state of the Australia economy when Whitlam was sacked was actually better than when Fraser lost the election.

      Recent history in this country shows that politician who win elections don’t survive as Prime Ministers. ScoMo did an excellent job is selling the Liberals to the public but being a great salesman does not necessarily mean that he will be a good P.M. The jury is still out on that.

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      The Libs and Nats withheld supply in the Senate when Whitlam was PM. That was the real problem.

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      Hi Tom Tank are you able to give a reference for your (to me) unfounded belief that the economy when Whitlam was sacked was actually better (and define better and economy) than when Fraser lost the election. I have never read or heard anything like that, in fact quite the opposite. So please let’s have a reference , so that I can learn more, and see the evidence to back up your unsubstantiated point of view.

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      Sam Tank…Morrison was sacked as a salesman. He wasn’t even good at that.

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      Mikko….Queensland loves crooks. They have a long history with them. Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen was and still is their hero.

      They idolize One Nation despite Hanson passed to cut their wages in the Senate.

      Morrison denies being in the largest deficit Australia has ever had. When he chooses to admit it he always blames Labor for bad mismanagement for it.

      The Liberals have been boasting about their sound money management skills for the past six years. If they were so good then why are we in such a huge deficit?

      Electricity prices have just shot up by 7% since the Coalition has just been re-elected in.

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      jackie, talking of crooks, Bill Shorten union bully boy, adulterer, only gave back, what was it $40,000 after a long period of time and now according to google worth $61 million, where did that come from jackie, he is hardly Mother Theresa, sheesh.
      You are such a poor loser, have an early night and a big mug of cocoa or then we have Plibersucks husband if you wanted something stronger, just joking, know what I mean, wink wink.

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      Jackie, why are electricity prices rising? Nothing to do with the destruction of coal mines, perhaps?

      And, before you argue, around 10 years ago one internet site listed 26 countries with higher electricity prices than Australia. Last year Australia was identified as having the highest power prices in the world. I’ll give you the address for the article, knowing that you won’t bother to read something which conflicts with your rusted-on views:

      https://www.power-technology.com/features/australia-energy-prices/

      And did you notice that Shorten would not answer two questions – how much his policy would cost, and what would be the effect upon the climate?

      An economist, from which side of politics I do not know, answered the first question, prices would increase by up to 700%. Yes, 700% Perhaps you might care to spare a thought for pensioners who are already forced to severely ration their electricity usage because of the costs.

      The Chief Scientist was questioned in the Senate about the impact upon the climate if Australia ended all emissions. – I will let him tell the story which appeared in a letter:

      “On Monday 3 December you published an opinion piece by Andrew Bolt titled, ‘Less marching, more learning’*, which included a reference to me ‘admitting’ that we “could stop all Australia’s emissions – junk every car, shut every power station, put a cork in every cow – and the effect on the climate would still be ‘virtually nothing’”.

      Those are Andrew Bolt’s words, not mine, and they are a complete misrepresentation of my position. They suggest that we should do nothing to reduce our carbon emissions, a stance I reject, and I wish to correct the record.”

      Andrew Bolt defended himself by replaying the interview between the Chief Scientist and Sen. Ian McDonald which totally contradicted the claim that Andrew Bolt had put words in the mouth of the Chief Scientist and that he had been misrepresented.

      One can sympathise with the Chief Scientist to a point. Professor Peter Ridd was quickly “thrown under a bus” by daring to show, with evidence, that the position adopted by his employer, James Cook University, was unsustainable. Obviously the CS didn’t want to share the same fate as Peeter Ridd.

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      Jackie, why are electricity prices rising? Nothing to do with the destruction of coal mines, perhaps?

      And, before you argue, around 10 years ago one internet site listed 26 countries with higher electricity prices than Australia. Last year Australia was identified as having the highest power prices in the world. I’ll give you the address for the article, knowing that you won’t bother to read something which conflicts with your rusted-on views:

      https://www.power-technology.com/features/australia-energy-prices/

      And did you notice that Shorten would not answer two questions – how much his policy would cost, and what would be the effect upon the climate?

      An economist, from which side of politics I do not know, answered the first question, prices would increase by up to 700%. Yes, 700% Perhaps you might care to spare a thought for pensioners who are already forced to severely ration their electricity usage because of the costs.

      The Chief Scientist was questioned in the Senate about the impact upon the climate if Australia ended all emissions. – I will let him tell the story which appeared in a letter:

      “On Monday 3 December you published an opinion piece by Andrew Bolt titled, ‘Less marching, more learning’*, which included a reference to me ‘admitting’ that we “could stop all Australia’s emissions – junk every car, shut every power station, put a cork in every cow – and the effect on the climate would still be ‘virtually nothing’”.

      Those are Andrew Bolt’s words, not mine, and they are a complete misrepresentation of my position. They suggest that we should do nothing to reduce our carbon emissions, a stance I reject, and I wish to correct the record.”

      Andrew Bolt defended himself by replaying the interview between the Chief Scientist and Sen. Ian McDonald which totally contradicted the claim that Andrew Bolt had put words in the mouth of the Chief Scientist and that he had been misrepresented.

      One can sympathise with the Chief Scientist to a point. Professor Peter Ridd was quickly “thrown under a bus” by daring to show, with evidence, that the position adopted by his employer, James Cook University, was unsustainable. Obviously the CS didn’t want to share the same fate as Peeter Ridd.

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      Maxchugg asks why are electricity prices rising? Gas exports might have something to do with it.
      https://www.abc.
      et.au/news/2019-05-17/gas-exports-blamed-for-electricity-price-rises-job-losses/11121120

      Max, you also might want to check your article and make sure you read it correctly. Recent OECD energy comparisons show Australia to be one of the less expensive countries on a USD PPP basis.

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      Farside, on the internet you can easily find a number of sites predicting that South Australian electricity prices were about to third highest in the world – i.e.

      https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australias-power-prices-set-to-become-highest-in-world-says-energy-users-association-of-australia/news-story/8adeb4a48aaa152c0a3a46ee01a7c3fc – 2012

      ihttps://www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a – 2017

      The following sites confirm that these predictions were correct:

      https://www.
      ews.com.au/national/power-bills-among-highest-in-the-world-this-summer/news-story/8eeb9ad959a5bdc7b86f78b28c4ad67a
      2018

      https://electricityandgas.com.au/article/aussies-paying-highest-energy-prices-in-the-world/

      This site indicates that in 2014 an OECD report showed that there were 21 countries with more expensive electricity than Australia:

      https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/worldwide-electricity-prices-how-does-australia-compare/

      On the internet there is a number of sites which give reasons why our electricity is so expensive, some reasons make sense, many do not. One of the reasons I find plausible is the point you raised – high gas prices.

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      Farside, on the internet you can easily find a number of sites predicting that South Australian electricity prices were about to third highest in the world – i.e.

      https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australias-power-prices-set-to-become-highest-in-world-says-energy-users-association-of-australia/news-story/8adeb4a48aaa152c0a3a46ee01a7c3fc – 2012

      ihttps://www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a – 2017

      The following sites confirm that these predictions were correct:

      https://www.
      ews.com.au/national/power-bills-among-highest-in-the-world-this-summer/news-story/8eeb9ad959a5bdc7b86f78b28c4ad67a
      2018

      https://electricityandgas.com.au/article/aussies-paying-highest-energy-prices-in-the-world/

      This site indicates that in 2014 an OECD report showed that there were 21 countries with more expensive electricity than Australia:

      https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/worldwide-electricity-prices-how-does-australia-compare/

      On the internet there is a number of sites which give reasons why our electricity is so expensive, some reasons make sense, many do not. One of the reasons I find plausible is the point you raised – high gas prices.

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    Australia owes Queensland big time .
    The National and state government should now fastrack Adani and spend billions upgrading Queensland infrastructure
    It’s the right thing to do. Queensland and Australia has spoken

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      You should thank Anastacia and Jackie Trad in Queensland for frustrating the creation of jobs in the regions. I have just spent 10 days up north and talking to people in the pubs you would not have needed an opinion poll.

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      Maureen…How does Australia owe Queensland big time? The rest of Australia should stop bailing Queensland out each time it gets into shit. Yes it’s always been Australians not the Government that’s helped Queensland. You have a very short memory and brain span too.

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      Another nice insult from a sore loser Jackie

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      Another nice insult from a sore loser Jackie

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      Well I hope the QLND State govt stops the Adani Mine from going ahead unless it has been deemed environmentally safe.

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      I am extremely puzzled. How does Australia owe Queensland big time. The rest of us seem to be pouring billions of dollars into Queensland shouldn’t it be the other way round.

      The big problem with Australia as a whole is that we have succumbed to be dependent on exporting coal and other stuff while we have slowly been exporting our manufacturing base as well. This (especially coal) is now on the downturn and will continue to be so whatever anyone says. We have nothing to back it up and that is why Queensland is desperate.

      Do you know that the UK last month had it’s first week of supplying electricity without using any coal.

      Do you know that Canada who has a population a bit more than us manufactures it’s own cars. It builds Aircraft (airline one) that it even sells to USA.

      Australia to be honest still manufactures ships but that is constantly under threat.

      I personally people are putting more trust than there should be in Adani and it will come to bite us.

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      Misty…Their Minister for Environment has approved it. It’s a bit like how the cigarette companies used to claim that smoking was good for you.

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      inextratime… If you have any grandchildren they will suffer thanks to your Greed mentality. No money will save the consequences of Global Warming in the end.

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      Very well said, Maureen and I agree entirely – and so should all common sense Australians.

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      Maureen, why can’t we see your name at the top of this thread?

      I can’t understand why Australia fell for the sob story of Central Queensland miners missing out on potentially 1,500 jobs from Adani at the cost of 65,000 jobs & small business owners losing their livelihoods in tourism, when the Reef is entirely ruined.

      I also can’t understand why farmers & Indigenous Communities will be denied uncontaminated groundwater supplies, so that Adani can proceed. Then there’s the land-clearing & habitat of endangered species being taken by Adani, if it proceeds.

      Why does Adani & some miners have priority over the environment & so many Australians, including other Queenslanders? My only conclusion is that people voted in response to propaganda, much like normal, good German people backed Hitler – they naively believed that Hitler would be good for Germany.

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    The polling companies are busy today explaining why their polling was so wrong. Also the Bookies who have taken some big losses on election betting because they got the odds wrong.
    As to the outcome, Labor was too ambitious with it’s tax reform policies and did not target them well enough. That meant they hurt some of their own regular voters and also had to contend with Palmer’s $50 million advertising campaign and preferences all favouring the Coalition.

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      Maybe the Greens with their preposterous campaign to make Australia 100% use renewable energy by 2030 lost them support which then effected the ALP preference votes that they so desperately rely on at every election. Di Natali will be under a lot of pressure to resign.

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      Maybe the Greens with their preposterous campaign to make Australia 100% use renewable energy by 2030 lost them support which then effected the ALP preference votes that they so desperately rely on at every election. Di Natali will be under a lot of pressure to resign.

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      inextratime…The Greens are not with Labor. They go against Labor and take the credit for anything good that Labor does. Just because their vote goes to Labor doesn’t mean they are with Labor like the Nationals are with Liberals.

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    Well done Scomo. Australians didn’t want all the avocado smashing, latte sipping, bed wetting left wing lunies in power. Yes I am a proud Queenslander!! I hope Labour elect Albo as their new leader. He is more from the centre, happy to work with small business and not interested in class warfare. The ABC and the Project should hang their heads in shame with their propaganda campaigns. How they could get it so wrong.

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    “If you don’t like the retiree tax policy don’t vote labor”
    Chris Bowen for next labor leader please

  10. 0
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    The polls got it wrong because Palmer was not factored in or the scare tactics around tax and people being persuaded they were going to be taxed and their money taken. “Bill Shorten is coming for your money.” And they believed it.
    Also, Liberal was first on the senate sheet and Labor and the Greens were hard to find buried further along.
    I have never felt so terrible after an election. It feels dirty. We received two flyers courtesy of Palmer/Liberal which were personal attacks on the independent and Labor. The one for the independent had nothing to do with her ability to do the job.
    I am not the only one feeling this way and it is a sad day for people who want action on climate change and a fair deal for the worker.

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      You insult the intelligence of all Aussie by your silly comments

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      An old political adage is “Never underestimate the stupidity of the Electorate”.
      That why advertising works and big money sways opinions.

      That said Labor lost this election by not targeting their policies well enough and not continually pointing out the current poor and worsening state of the national economy under the Coalition. Most economists expect an official recession to begin later this year and business investment right now is the lowest since 1993 but Labor never mentioned this during the campaign. Big Mistake Labor, you should have hammered this information.

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      Maureen, what intelligence, like you?
      Values like leaving a viable world for your descendants and fairness to the low paid workers rather than favouring big corporations and greed are more important than what a voter can gain by voting a certain way.
      Morals or money?

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      Looks like your having trouble with what the electorate wants Paddington lets face it you and your loony left got crucified and good Riddance to them.

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      sorry you and Rosscoe will never get it! Most Australians will not accept the socialist left dictating to us what we should do and how we live . If you want socialism get off and live somewhere else and be happy until that country goes broke , but stop trying to stuff ours

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      paddington asks morals or money? Well the jury has spoken, in most cases it’s money but for some peculiar reason known only to themselves, almost two-thirds of retirees are rusted on conservatives, not even small “L” liberals or SPECs.

      This is perfectly understandable if you are financially independent with its related privileges or ideologically wedded to conservative and far right dogma, but it escapes me why the unemployed, disadvantaged and pensioner underclasses and others likewise dependent upon government handouts for their wellbeing, kid themselves it is in their best interest.

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      Paddington, just to clarify for you, the little green piece of paper you got with a few names on it was the one that got rid of Shorten and Bowen. The big white one was the Senate votes and the counting on that will continue for quite some time and has 3/4 of 5/8 of bugger all to do with the House of Representatives.

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      Farside, spot on!
      Why would poor people vote LNP?! But they do. Some are uneducated and unable to read/research. Wealthy people do not have the monopoly on education or intelligence, however. Values and morals come into it too.
      If you filled in the compass survey you would notice that kindness, compassion and the ability to empathise pushes you to the left. People can ignore that too though and favour a right leaning vote because they believe that is in their best financial interest.
      The old adage about money is true sadly. People vote with their back pocket and what they think is where they will get the most money in the short term. Hence, Adani was big in Qld because it spelt jobs and people could not trust they would be able to find another job if Adani was closed down. The damage to the reef and river systems was not sufficient if they could not trust they could feed their families.
      We live in the now, not in the distant future.
      Some empathy could go to the working class there but not the wealthy independent people. There is no excuse for people who just wanted more money when they already had enough.

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      Maureen…Please don’t insult the rest off Australians. Only in Queensland you can have a thick uneducated Liberal patsy like Hanson and grubby Barnaby Joyce pretending to look after Queenslanders.

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      Does Maureen remind you of someone else who used to comment here, another alias perhaps.

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      Yes, I thought she’d become Anonymous, but maybe not. Eventually, her insults will become extreme and YLF will take her down like last time

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      Poor ol Paddy, I am sorry you feel so terrible, but buck up, I felt elated, happy , euphoric, vindicated, so happy I help keep Australia from a Shorten led government and the greens at bay. The last time I felt so elated, deliriously happy etc about an election result was in 1996 when the much loathed, smarmy Keating got his comeuppance and lost the election resoundingly.

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      Intelligence No Maureen Just some.

      Advertising is good thats why businesses use them for selling things. That why some people buy even if they do not want them. So who is silly.

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      jackie, your vitriol need to be contained and calmed. Barnaby Joyce has not represented Queenslanders for many years. He was a Senator for Queensland and resigned and moved back to his home town of Tamworth where he stood for the House of Representatives. He has been elected into the House of Representatives over three times with a clear majority representing the residents of the seat of New England.
      Pauline Hanson is not a “patsy” for the Liberals. You may recall that she was dis-endorsed by the Liberals more than two decades ago and won a seat in the House of Representatives as an independent.
      Paddington reminds me of what Paul Keating said many years ago about the need to simplify the voting process as it was too difficult for the average Labor supporter to understand.
      If you’re not sure what they means, note that typically the electorates that vote Labor usually have up to double the number of informal votes than those that vote Liberal/National Party/ LNP.

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      Now now Paddy, you are much more intelligent than that. Morals or money.????? You and I know morals , values etc are relative concepts. Your values and morals are not the same as others, possibly those who wisely voted for the winning the side. The ALP, and their voters, do not have a monopoly on right or fairness, what is right and fair to some is very unfair and not right others. That does not make your values or sense of fairness better or worse than others, they are just that, your values. Really, the ALP voters here are sounding very self righteous, and blaming the voters for not agreeing them , (We are right, and you voted wrong, how dare you) rather than allowing for the possibility that their ALP policies were just “wrong” (another relative value”) and unacceptable to them. The electorate always gets it right…..except when they don’t agree with your concepts.

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      Obviously New England residents are complete twits voting that piece of human scum Barbnaby Joyce in!

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      fred, I could not agree more.

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      Hear hear fred.

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      Yep, Misty, look at who is missing lol.
      Morals are not ambiguous, Digby! Is it moral to give concessions to big business but take away concessions for the poor?
      Right and fair are clear as well. Is it right or fair to deny low paid workers a fair day’s wage for a fair day’s work?
      Check what Tony Abbott said, you would agree with him, I am sure. If people used morals to vote they would vote for Labor or Greens or even some of the independents. But if money was their motivation then they would vote for LNP. I think you could keep going actually…Pauline Hanson for racism…..

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      Paddington
      What concessions were given to big business by LNP’s proposed policies and what concessions were being taken away from the poor ?
      Listen to yourself
      You are in la la land

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      sorry Paddy …….fail. Your values , and morality are not superior to anyone else’s though misguided ALP labor voters like to believe themselves superior (and there is so much psychopathology in that). What you believe to be moral is immoral and unfair to others. The majority of electorate used their morals to vote for the winning side and applied their morally superior values to deny ALP a victory, and keep the greens in check. To vote ALP or greens would have been very immoral indeed, as it is a vote for a ruined economy, and as lesser Australia.

    • 0
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      Hear hear Digby

      Paddington is like Shorten and Plebersick – sell out Australia and future generations for self interest

    • 0
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      Paddington… I feel for you. The world would be a better place without so the so much greed and lack of respect for the environment and lack of empathy toward the suffering of others less fortunate.

    • 0
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      fred…You can hardly call Australia a Democracy when it’s all run by the rich.

    • 0
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      musty the ALP troll should be taken off this site.

    • 0
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      Spoken like a true Liberal troll ruy.

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