PM falls in polls

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It’s been a tough first week in Parliament after the winter break for the Prime Minister and the latest polls won’t do much to ease the pressure.

According to the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll of 1402 respondents taken between 13 and 15 August, should a federal election have been held at the weekend, we would be seeing a change in government, with a 7.5 per cent swing in voters’ preferences. This would result in a loss of 36 seats for the Coalition. In order to form a majority government, Labor need only to secure 21 seats from the Coalition, so 36 would result in a landslide victory.  In the two party preferred vote of 46/54, the Government is eight per cent behind the ALP. In terms of a primary vote, the Government only has a marginal buffer of two per cent above Labor’s 36 per cent. At 38 per cent, this is also eight per cent below the 46 per cent of the primary vote it secured in the last election.

When polled on individual leaders, neither Tony Abbott nor Bill Shorten have improved their popularity. Mr Abbott has a disapproval rating of 59 per cent and an approval rating of only 35 per cent. And, while Bill Shorten has increased his approval rating by four per cent to 39 per cent, his disapproval rating is 49 per cent.

As the government continues to hit the wrong note with the general public on policies concerning same-sex marriage and global warming, bickering within the Liberal Party isn’t helping to steady the ship. The solution for the Coalition could lie in a change of leadership. Malcolm Turnbull scored 41 per cent of the vote on a preferred Liberal leader, with Julie Bishop on 23 per cent and Tony Abbott on 15 per cent.

There is some good news for Tony Abbott; his popularity remains intact with Coalition voters. The PM has 33 per cent of the vote for preferred leader, with Mr Turnbull on 25 per cent and Ms Bishop on 23 per cent. For those interested, Treasurer Joe Hockey only scored six per cent of the vote for preferred leader.

Is it time for a change at the top? Or should Tony Abbott take heart from the Coalition voters and hold his line? Why do you think Malcolm Turnbull is consistently preferred as Liberal leader amongst the electorate at large, but not coalition voters?

Read more at the Sydney Morning Herald.

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Written by Debbie McTaggart

89 Comments

Total Comments: 89
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    Nothing will be finlised anyway Tony Abbott has got into the hait of saying we will deL WITH THAT IN TE NEXT Prliament in other words if you expec us to make a decision you are going to be sorry becUSE WE ain’t about to make you hate us anymore.

  2. 0
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    Looks like the article on benefits has disappeared, WHY?

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    The coalition voters prefer TA because he is malleable therefore his voters are always hoping. MT, on the other hand, is not, he has his convictions and stick to them. It is way the electorate at large prefer MT, MT would do a much better PM.

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    I would like to see a lot more open discussion on what the blood suckers get for nothing including their families. If the Press finish their job, instead of half doing it we would all be better off. There must be a lot more than Bronnie and Burke that is screwing us for half our pension.

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    Tony would be foolish to get the message that Coalition voters like him so no need to worry. If he wants to win a second term he needs the middle ground to vote for him.
    Chances of that? Akin to the chances a snowball might survive in Hades. Call an electipm

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    Tony Abbott should hold his line. Whilst this may not be the best Government that we have ever had I believe that they are trying to achieve things to benefit the country and have done so in several cases. I believe that the decision to go to the people on Gay Marriage is a correct one and something that I have written on in this site over some weeks. We as the public should make this decision and it should then be binding on the Government of both persuasions to accept the will of the people not just the strident calls of a few in parliament.
    As to the bias or legality of the Royal Commissioner, I feel that he has the duty and the right to see this matter through. The unions have already been demonstrated to to have had a rotten core in some. These powerful unions need to be recognised and routed out of any power within industry. I also believe that the comments made by Tony Burke on the floor of parliament if made outside the cowards castle of parliament could lead to a charge being laid against him under the relevant act governing royal commissions. Do those who protest too much do so to protect themselves or at the very least those that support them. I really do not know and for this reason the Royal Commission must proceed to a definitive answer so that we the people can make our own judgement on the matter and whats more be fully informed to do so.
    And for those who will accuse me of bias read my previous postings and understand that I do not support either party or politics just clean and open discussion on all matters.

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      Well said dougie

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      dougie that your opinion on PM Abbott…………

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      Tia -maria,
      Please read again, I offered no opinion on Tony Abbot just an opinion on the Government of the day. Unlike some I am not strident in either condemnation or praise for either of our political leaders as I do not believe that this is my right. Political leaders are what they are and will be judged by the community at large in an election, however I do feel able to comment on matters before the parliament or in the public arena.

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      Totally agree with you dougie … on all counts.

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      Can I skip along behind Here ! 🙂

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      OH Dougie you say mate that Abbott trying to do a good job???????to benefit our country again I rest my case I don’t think so

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      It appears that this government has been “judged” from day 1 dougie. Show me one good thing they have done and I’ll show you vested interests…..although in all fairness I would agree on ending the boat arrivals which were costing every one of us so dearly.

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      OMG !! 🙁 Want an education Mick ? Go to You/Tube and watch
      Muslims riot in Paris, France. Type that in Google if you cant find it ! 🙁

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      Particolor, watched the video. But still France, Germany and the UK Governments still encourage them to come to their Countries. Where is the sense in that. Will Australia face the same problem? Maybe maybe not, but why take the chance.

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      What a disgusting display of “The Religion of Peace” 🙁 🙁 I have no idea why they have Police in those Country’s ???

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      I don’t think this is the worst government we’ve ever had but I do think this is the worst P.M. we’ve ever had. “Captain’s calls” are killing us!

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      Oh dougie you did make me laugh – some may think well written, but I’m sorry it wasn’t well thought!

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      There are more important things to the majority of Australians than legislation for Gay marriage.
      I am more concerned with the economy, getting this debt down and getting people in jobs.
      Agree with Strummer’s comment.

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      dougie, this government has done a lot of good things in 2 years. I see the stopping of the forced immigration (boat people) and the FTA’s as their two main triumphs. These two achievements were simply too difficult for the previous government. In fact they said it could not be done!
      The Abbott government is doing what we would expect from a good government. “Keeping us safe” and “improving the economy” which will in turn provide us with job security. A strong economy underpins social infrastructure. Good social infrastructure is a result of having a strong economy.

      I’ll tell you something about Abbott for mick and the rest of you knockers.
      I have employed hundreds of people during my working life and many of them I employed not because I liked them but based on my assessment of their ability to succeed at the job. I judge Abbott on his ability to get the job done and his ability to do what he says he will do. And based on this alone in my book he is head and shoulders above the alternatives.

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      Well said Dougie

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    Polls are wrong so many times. If the key issue is gay marriage our country is in a very sorry state. Look at the main issues in Australia. Health, education, So called refugees, the unemployment and crime. You can not put all these faults on Tony Abbott when all the opposition wants to do is get Gay marriage regulated. If that is all this country is worried about have a referendum now and get on with the key issues. Why not look at the ex pollies perks and take them away. Like anyone else who loses a job. That is it. Why should we be paying for offices, desks, secretaries etc, etc. We could be saving billions. Wake up Australia

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      This gay marriage crap is at the forefront of both party’s “things to do” list because it is one which will be eventually be put to the vote of the public – if ever. It is also a issue which is hit back and forth like a tennis ball because all the other issues, which are very serious in comparison, are too hot, controversial, and difficult to handle by either party. This gay marriage caper is also a vote getter if handled (NOT resolved) properly and no ones’ gay little feet are trod upon. We all know the figure of 72% of people in favour of gay marriage is an overblown and unsubstantiated one which probably wouldn’t even be that high in San Francisco. So, let’s quit kidding ourselves and give one another heterosexual hugs and hope for an early election without lies.

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      With all of the problems we have in this country (most of which have been left by the ALP), the issue of gay marriage is, or should be, at the very bottom of the list. It is just not important when compared with the budget deficit, unemployment, terrorism and safety of Australians at home, Union corruption, … and the list goes on and on.

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      If I was an organisation looking to get a favourable result on any survey, I would know which area to poll. As such I take no notice of poll results as they can be misdirected and set a focus on a particular demographic to achieve a required result. Sorry pollsters but I am not able to believe that you are totally honest in your presentation. Internal polling by political parties may or may not provide more definitive results. These can be skewed by those involved polling to suit their long term or short term aims.
      The answer is “you make up your mind and change it to suit the information that you have available to you. ” This way you will at least have a say in your personal poll.
      It is strange that in all of the years that I have lived I have only been contacted once by pollsters and then they did not want to hear what I had to say because it was not aligned to their polling wants.

    • 0
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      Polls by their very nature rely on ‘sampling’. This requires the sample to be representative of the wider population, a sometimes difficult thing to get. And then of course media, political debate and propaganda can influence the way people vote at the last minute.
      If only life were that easy.

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      It should be about individual choice, not what other people believe should be their choice (which at the moment isn’t having a choice)

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      Sorry Fast Eddie and Dougie, but the polls repeatedly show the large majority of Australians support gay marriage – 74% in the Herald Sun last week (with over 20,000 people asked), and 69% in a Fairfax poll. This should be a “no-brainer” for the pollies to decide, so they can get on with the real issues – sustainable energy, pollution, selling off to overseas buyers, lack of support for primary producers, fairer working conditions for employees (including maintaining penalty rates, etc) but since they don’t have the faintest idea on what to do about those issues, they would rather deflect attention to other things. Why do you think gay marriage, boat people, unions, etc, are the centre of attention now? – because the Coalition is able to scare monger about these and take our minds off the more important matters. Unfortunately, both major parties enjoy this tactic.

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      Pollyanna: It’s not just Labor as you indicate pushing the Gay Marriage button, its also members of the current coalition government. Only yesterday we had Warren Entsch with his private member’s bill in favour of it and when you looked at the numbers in the Parliament listening to his speech you could have fired a shot gun and hit nobody. As long as we have division on this subject there will never be an end to it. Delaying and delaying and Tony Abbott indicating to us all that we know what his views are on the subject is just another showing of divisiveness and indecision. Not much is happening in taking this country forward at present, and not much will happen now as within a few months both sides of government will be in”election mode”. As to why people prefer Turnbull to Abbott as PM completely escapes me, I wouldn’t waste my breath on either of them. We don’t need a silver spoon or a pugilist.

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      Polly
      The govt puts up the legislation not the opposition or the senate. The only thing that I noticed recently was a bill to keep info on the well off tax from companies secret because they might be kidnapped. Guess those kidnappers never heard of BMW list to check oput who is wealthy. Apparently they want to cut out an environment legislation as well that Howard introduced 15 odd years ago. They reckon its killing mining projects yet it has only affected .5% of 5500 projects since it was introduced. I repeat .5% , not 5% or 50% but half of 1%. The govt claims the Adani mine will generate 10,000 jobs but Adani itself admits it will only generate just under 1500.
      With arguments like that its no wonder the govt is on the nose. No one believes a word they say because its all rubbish. A bit like the memo about keeping topics to how well the govt is doing. They either think we are mugs or the PMs office thinks its members are mugs.

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      geo, I think you are confusing the actual mine jobs (1500) with the support jobs(>10,000). I take it that you are against the Adani Carmichael project? Against the China Free Trade Agreement? And any other project which grows the economy and creates jobs? Why is the CFMEU and Labor opposed to job creation?

  8. 0
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    Almost any change would be a good change, although I fear leaving Shorten as leader might cause Labor to lose the unlosable. Sadly, I don’t see any solutions for a nation that has completely lost its way. We are governed by the most selfish, greedy, corrupt, dishonest team imaginable. Clearly, there are few in politics who give a damn for the country or its people. What we need is a clean sweep – politicians who have ethics and integrity and a social conscience. Where, in this sick society, could we ever hope to find such people? All that said – and despite being a staunch Liberal supporter for over 40 years – I can’t wait to see the end of both Abbott and Hockey. They have done this nation a great deal of harm, and clearly they have no answers at all to any of the problems we face.

  9. 0
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    Tony Abbott is coming under pressure because the ALP is pushing the same-sex agenda….if that is the only problem this country has then he should go.
    Shorten is desperate to get the Union Corruption RC shut down and will do all he can to discredit the government. One of Shortens (many) problems is, is that the RC has already uncovered enough to send some very high profile ALP and Union members to jail.
    His other banter is about the China FTA taking jobs of Australians on 457 visas. Now that has been shown to be absolute rubbish and today it was revealed that three high profile unions are actually employing persons on 457 visas themselves. The lowest paid is on $52,000.00. So Fairfax, the most unbiased media in the world, has released some bad stats for the PM…….I doubt he is too concerned.
    Of course, as usual, this page has it’s brain dead talking out of their backsides with commentary that is dumb, meaningless or just plain unintelligible….it really makes my day to read the commentaries…better than cartoons.

  10. 0
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    WHEN ARE US PENSIONERS GONNA GET THE $30 RISE IN OUR PENSION????????????????????????????

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      Why? Do we need it? Are we entitled to it? Answer me these questions in a logical manner so that I can understand your question.

    • 0
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      dougie, we need it to give us more time at the Casino.
      Were entitled because we are ordinary honest Aussies, not that other Feral thing called politicians.
      Next question?

    • 0
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      Young Simmo,
      As much as I realise and recognise tongue in cheek when I see it, I did ask for logical statements which would help me to understand the statement by Lenyjac. Give me these as I am a simple man and need matters to be spelled out for me to be able to understand them.

    • 0
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      I think Franks been Sacked ? 🙂 Someone a little bit more Opaque was needed 🙂
      But it working 🙂 NEXT !! 🙂 🙂

    • 0
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      dougie, I don’t know how to get my tongue outside my cheek with out cutting it off, then the Mrs would say “Silence is Golden”.

      LENYJAC, was that a typing error, and you really meant 30 cents, not $30.

    • 0
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      Just wait till October Simmo, You’ll get a Hansom Reward of about a Buck Eighty if Your lucky !! 🙂 🙂 That was Jackboots favourite handout to the Unwashed !! 🙂 🙂
      Stay well as long as You can ! And I hope the Party Faithful Keep up their Medication !! 🙂

    • 0
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      Anybody who has been watching food prices and the cost of labour (tradesmen) might agree with Leny. And just wait until the price of oil goes up again: petrol dropped by 10 cents a litre as the oil price MORE THAN HALVED but it will go up with the increase in the oil price. No discount there!
      AS well as the above have a look at what you were paying per Kwh for electricity 5 years ago and what you are paying now. Horrifying. Oh yes….”you have high electricity prices because of the Carbon Tax” (Greg Hunt lie!!), which did NOT go down more than a token few cents when the tax went.
      Is that enough dougie? Methinks that Leny may have a point. And for the record AUSTRALIA CAN AFFORD THIS (and more) if governments STOP multinationals from using the fraudulent transfer pricing to avoid their Australian taxes. This dishonest behaviour is simply the multinationals selling to THEMSELVES and calling it a loss.
      Australia can afford to pay pensioners enough so that their income is not gobbled up by inflation….which it is being done.

    • 0
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      Mick I couldn’t even afford to answer You ! 🙁

    • 0
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      mick do you have any good news? 🙁

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