Biggest ever stock market crash likely

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Biggest ever stock market crash likely

6 yrs ago

The world is now drowning in debt – even if the balance sheets look good. and accordiing to these experts, it cannot go on much longer:

“On Wednesday, after her two-day meeting, expectations are running hot the US central bank chief may explain not just her interest rate intentions but also her plans to begin selling that huge pile of debts. And that's where the problems begin. Selling them involves reversing the whole exercise. It will soak up cash, push interest rates even higher and cause panic on financial markets.

Wages growth globally still is weak. Inflation has repeatedly failed to respond to the flood of cash (ie government debt). Productivity growth has been sluggish. Reversing all this will be no simple task. In fact, it may be impossible.

Perhaps the only way out is to write off the debts, to simply nuke them and start again.

That will cause mayhem on currency and bond markets. But it may the only way out.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-18/verrender-what-are-the-odds-of-us-stock-market-crash/8954966

And this,

“The situation in the markets is much worse than you realize. While that may sound like someone who has been crying “wolf” for the past several years, in all honesty, the public has no idea just how dire our present situation has become.”

https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/

11 comments

PlanB

6 yrs ago

Yes it is frighting

U2 frontman Bono, who is also an investor, philanthropist, and Christian told students at Georgetown University that real economic growth, not government aid, is what lifts people and countries out of poverty long-term, emphasizing that "entrepreneurial capitalism" is the key to prosperity.

The World economies are rising together lifting billions out of poverty ..

sad that it hasn't worked. and, of course, overpopulation adds more to live in poverty.

"Imagine for a second this last global recession [in 2007-2009] but without the economic growth of China and India, without the hundreds of millions of newly minted middle class folks who now buy American and European goods – imagine that," said Bono. "Think about the last 5 years."

https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/bono-capitalism-takes-more-people-out-poverty-aid

Bono was talking about that it had worked .

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More and more countries now have fertility rates below the level required for the replacement of successive generations (roughly 2.1 births per woman), and some have been in this situation for several decades. During 2010-2015, fertility was below the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 % of the world’s population. The ten most populous countries in this group are China, the United States of America, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Japan, Viet Nam, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand, and the United Kingdom (in order of population size).

Lower fertility leads also to ageing populations

In Europe, 25% of the population is already aged 60 years or over. That proportion is projected to reach 35% in 2050 and to remain around that level in the second half of the century. Populations in other regions are also projected to age significantly over the next several decades and continuing through 2100. Africa, for example, which has the youngest age distribution of any region, is projected to experience a rapid ageing of its population. Although the African population will remain relatively young for several more decades, the percentage of its population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 5% in 2017 to around 9% in 2050, and then to nearly 20% by the end of the century.

UN report 2017

The worlds population would be in decline now if we were not sucussful in extending life spans .

Dow 22000

ASX 5784

woohooo

id say we're doing great :))

ex PS

6 yrs ago

The thing about predictions is that if you give it long enough almost all of them come true. It's the law of averages, and if you don't add a date to your predictions you can not be expected to be taken seriously.

i predict there will be a crash and then the market will bounce back higher than before

Cycle

7 + 1 + 7 + 3.5 =

Phil Anderson’s 18.5 year property clock

These numbers used to mean 18.5 to me. Now thanks to a bloke named Phillip J Anderson, it is the number of years in a full property cycle.

After GFC I went on the hunt for information. I am a bit of an information junkie and wanted to know about the financial downturn and what caused it.

Everybody had an opinion and none of them were really based on anything other than the experiences they were exposed to in their job or life situation. A financial analyst wrote that the GFC was about the market confidence being low, a property broker said it was the lack of credit supply, a trader said it was packaged loans sold to institutions.

None of this was really pieced all together for me until the middle of 2013 when I discovered Phillip J Anderson’s work on real estate cycles.

Phil is an Aussie economist who is definitely a non-conformer. He does things differently and one of the big differences is that Phil reckons that all markets are driven by the Real Estate market.

Hang on, an economist saying that property is the driver?

I predict 2026 next bust

http://propertyadvice.com.au/property-cycle/

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https://www.exponentialinvestor.com/technology/boom-times-are-here-again//

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Buy Low

Sell High

Easy peasy

I just buy low and keep it :)

For now

ex PS

6 yrs ago

There are speculaters and investors, in this market I choose to buy low risk and hang on to the investments in order to generate income. Boring, yes, but I am only anticipating two none return years out of ten using this strategy, as the money invested outside of Super is small in regard to my assets, I regard market investment as something of a hobby. Just to add a bit of excitement I do invest a small portion of my funds in International Shares, which are doing quite well at the moment.

I have worked too hard for my money to risk it on speculative ventures, that is for the young who have time to make back the losses they may incur.

You are smart PS. I probably keep a higher proportion for my trading hobby ..

What do you think of real estate I avoid like the plague as too long settlement .

i did buy in the US after their correction in 2010 . But out now..

ex PS

6 yrs ago

Carefully selected commercial property management ventures maybe. Rental property, NO, been there done that, too much bias towards the lessor and too much time used for the money recouped.

People don't consider the upkeep/maintenance cost to real estate, they think it is easy money but it is not, I reckon invest in your home and leave property speculation to others. The long term benefits of not having to pay rent as a Retiree are well worth it.

Funny, the money I made from selling a rental property is what I use for my share investment hobby, far less stressful.

Foxy

6 yrs ago

lol - sorry guys - but who really cares? According to all the Prophets of "many of thousands of years" ago - World is meant to end on Sat. 23rd. September ......cya! Planet X or something gonna' hit the Earth??? lol lol lol

No babe

Superman will save us

Foxy

6 yrs ago

yayyyyyyy for Superman!!!

back to topic .... yes, it is true that the present US stockmarket is high, but it is the reverse of how their economy is doing. why? although i have explained this before on this forum, here is the answer, from a very good economist - link at the end.

"ask who is buying these stocks? It’s not individuals. It’s not even pension funds. It’s not the private sector.

Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs. In other words, companies are buying their own stocks in order to push up the price, with borrowed money.

That’s how executives are paid. They’re not paid for increasing output or even for increasing profits. They’re paid according to how much they can push up the stock price.

There are two ways to do this easily. One is to use earnings simply for share buybacks – buy up your own stock and push its price up; or, you simply pay out the earnings in dividends.

What you don’t do if you want to increase the stock price is invest more in research. You don’t invest more in capital. You don’t hire more labor, and you don’t expand your market. In other words, you give up. You say, “The economy’s reached an end. It’s not going to grow from here. We’re taking the money and running.”

The price of almost anything is a result of how many people are buying and how many people are selling. What’s happened is basically that individuals and the private sector are selling their stocks. Normally this would push down stock prices.

The reason for this selling is that most investors see that the reason why stock prices have gone up is that the Federal Reserve has flooded the economy with low-interest money. People are borrowing at 1% in order to buy stocks that are yielding 5 or 6% and they’re pocketing the difference.

Corporations make money buying back their stock financially, not by producing goods and services.”

http://michael-hudson.com/2017/08/stock-on-trumponomics/

once janet yellen raises the interest rates (soon), there will be the most almighty crash.

I see

so they reported profits that are driving prices up are all lies

do you know how to read a balance sheet Kika

Do you have a better system to suggest than capitalism .

here's a place to start brocky - winston churchill (of all people) got it right.

by the way, this site is where phil anderson got his property cycles from and i agree with that theory.

https://www.prosper.org.au/2017/09/06/ej-craigie-award-winner-adam-creighton/

I have read and agree with the article .

it is an article of faith amongst us right wingers that taxing wages is immorral.

Now govt raising money is one thing .

How they spend it is another .

My question was do you have an alternative to the capitiist system

cupoftea

6 yrs ago

I am old enouth to draw my super all out and that is what i am going to do

Will you stuff it under your mattress

KSS

6 yrs ago

Probably Raphael. In $100 notes!

(Isn't that what we all do?)

MICK

6 yrs ago

Brocky: so the magic number is 2025? That'll be interesting.

Kika: you miss so much of the current puzzle. Unserviceable debt is but one and writing off debt will have huge consequences for creditor nations like China.

Other things to think about:

1. Gold - America is selling and CHina and Russia are hording. There is a worrying reason for this, a new world order where the value of money is related to real gold assets. At present countries like America and Australia print the stuff like confetti and money is only worth something because people have faith in it. That can change in a day. Ask 100 year old Germans about that one.

2. Digital currency - this may be the most fundamental change in our lifetime. We should all worry about this.

The bigger issue is how unserviceable debt, gold reserves and coming cryptocurrencies are going to affect us all. I suspect this is not going to be pretty and that fortunes will disappear. As normal expect the ruling class to be prepared and have their futures accounted for.

Who are these "ruling classes" and how will they be prepared Mick old boy

i agree with all you say mick. the internet is full of discussions about the points you make.

however, when you see the standard of most of the replies on this forum, it is best not to overwhelm them with too much information. they usually go off topic rather than make an informed and thoughtful reply.

no offence meant.

MICK

6 yrs ago

The top always gets out before a crash and then buys in dirt cheap when there is blood on the street Raphael. My son worked for a guy building a $50 million house on Sydney Harbour last crash. He sold up and was completely out before the crash. That's what knowing the right people achieves.

The crash of 1987, the most recent major crash in Australian economic memory, heralded the arrival of the ‘recession we had to have’; triggered the collapse of Pyramid Building Society, which cost Victoria over $900 million; and drove unemployment up to 11.25 per cent.

The crash of 87 was our last . Brought on by Keating from memory

no kika

most people are sensible

not loonie conspiracy theory, sky is falling in , socialist anarchists

by the way - we have been ruled by alien lizards in human exo-skeletons since the 1980's

AUSSIE JOHN'S $50M PALACE

By Peter Gosnell, DailyTelegraph

January 6, 2007 12:00am

SYDNEY's richest bachelor has taken up residence in the nation's most expensive bachelor pad, a $50 million monument to John "We'll Save You" Symond and the great Australian dream of home ownership.

Aussie John has had the removalists working overtime filling the the four-storey mansion with furniture and artworks now that his copper-capped and sandstone skirted home is habitable

Sydneys first 50m dollar home was above 20 years after Keating "crash"

ex PS

6 yrs ago

For proof of the lizard theory, just look at T.A's tongue action while being interviewed.

Share on twitterby James Eyers

The chief scientist of the Capital Markets Cooperative Research Centre, Michael Aitken, has demonstrated a new asset trading system - known as digi.cash - which he says will allow a broad range of financial assets to be traded at virtually no cost with immediate settlement, potentially disruptive to existing markets like the Australian Securities Exchange.

Digi.cash works via a system of "tokenisation", where a digital representation is made of a physical asset. When the "token" is sent from one person to another, settlement is instant. The receiver can then "withdraw" the real asset.

In a presentation to the Financial Review Innovation Summit, Professor Aitken, who received the Prime Minister's innovation award in 2016, said the technology was superior to blockchain, versions of which are being considered by the ASX to make clearing and settlement more efficient and by Computershare to streamline registries.

Professor Aitken said he hoped the digi.cash system might be considered as an alternative. "I am not convinced about blockchain myself," he said.

Interesting Stuff Raph the three day settlement will go the way of cheque settlement ..

I used to play the system when was in commodities trading company - years ago now

when there is a chain of buyers and we received millions, place it on overnight especially on weekend or due to time diff between countries.

Tidy sum to be made when dealing in tens of millions of USD

sometimes our immediate buyer woudl be suspicious , especially when we claim to have receoived money from our buyer just after or close to international wire cut-off.

good ol days of manual systems :)

Aah yes the days of telex . I used to sell square hole punch paper tape . It was much better than round hole . It could be read easilier.

Had a nice pool of telex operators

One especially hot lass , use to work the after hours shift to finish off the marketing confirmation telexes.

The office kitchen table got a good work, let me tell you

Know if we are in to boasting this could be a long night .

On the eight floors we had in honkers .......

Hahah - I definitely have to kowtow (to use an appropriate cantonese term) to you on that one

tsu hi