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COVID infection rates six times higher than reported

COVID-19 infection rates in the UK, France and Belgium are much higher than reported and up to 17 times higher in Italy, new data shows.

Analysis also shows Australia had the best level of detection among the 15 countries at the end of April, but the rate of infection may still have been five times higher than what was officially reported at the end of August.  

In a paper published in Royal Society Open Science,researchers from Ikigai Research, the Australian National University (ANU) and the University of Melbourne show infection rates between March and August across 15 countries were on average 6.2 times greater than reported cases.

ANU co-author Professor Quentin Grafton said the study estimated the true number of infections across a combined population of over 800 million people in 11 European countries, as well as Australia, Canada, South Korea and the USA.

“We found COVID-19 infections are much higher than confirmed cases across many countries, and this has important implications for both control and the probability of infection,” Prof. Grafton said.

“Our analysis has found more than 5.4 million in the UK - eight per cent of the population - are or have been infected with the coronavirus.

“In Australia, our modelling shows the actual rate of infected and recovered people at the end of August may have been five times higher than reported, with 0.48 per cent of the population, or up to 130,000 people possibly infected. That’s much higher than the confirmed proportion of 0.10 per cent of the population.

“These findings raise serious questions about how we deal with all facets of the coronavirus pandemic, including ongoing morbidity and life-long health impacts for people who have been infected, how we implement and manage lockdowns, and how we make sure we are on top of this pandemic more broadly.”

The analysis used ‘backcasting’, a process that examines COVID-19 related fatalities and compares this with the time from infection to symptoms and time from symptoms to death. The authors state this method allows them to provide a 95 per cent confidence interval around their estimated true (population) infection rate.

“Simply put, we analysed statistics on how many people had died from COVID-19 in a given country and then worked backwards to see how many people would have to have been infected to arrive at that number of deaths,” Dr Steven Phipps from Ikigai Research said.

“Our method is a novel and easy-to-use method for estimating the true infection rate wherever there is reliable data on the number of fatalities attributable to COVID-19.”  

Prof. Grafton said: “Our approach is particularly advantageous in locations where there is little testing or limited capacity to forecast rates of infection but where there is a need, for the purposes of public health planning, for a population measure of COVID-19 infection.”

What do you think of these figures? Do they make you more concerned about the outbreak in South Australia? Do you think South Australia will be able to get the situation back under control?

9 comments

The true figure of infections will never be known. Some countries like USA over report (for political reasons) whilst others under report. What is certain though is that the death rates are consistent with the deaths from annual flu outbreaks. Just why is this one made into a "pandemic"?

Because they wanted to make trillions of dollars off vaccines, and change the world for big tech Frankly. With every pandemic there has been an introduction of a vaccine and a world upheaval, and implimenting of "new technologies" "new laws"  and more controls put in place with more loss of freedom. Wake up world.

Any other forum and your totally ignorant post would be deleted.

You are the one that is ignorant Banjo just like many others on this forum who really cannot cope with the fact that it is all about the money, if they cared about how many people die from preventable diseases they would stop selling the crap at the supermarkets and allow food industries to put toxic indgredients in packaged food for a start.

 

Banjo...wish that would happen...but since it will not...it is up to sensible people to draw attention to the rubbish posted by some who spend their lives reading and digesting conspiracy theories.

 

Sophie, there is already hysteria leading to the deleting and censoring on other sites when the truth about the Covid-19 situation is aired.  What Franky and Incognito have said is correct.

You will've noted that this article is all about "projections" and "estimations".  If what they have said is true about the actual numbers infected with Covid-19 and this is related back to the actual deaths from Covid-19, it demonstates that there has been a gross over reaction to what really has shapped up to just another influenza.

Find an example of an otherwise healthy individual under the age of 65 who has died from Covid-19.  Very very few, if any.

Good comment Couldabeen, but you won't change the mind of these people like Sophie who are stuck in their box and cannot fathom that this whole thing may be exaggerated to appease the vaccine manufacturers, after all her son is a Viroligist.

Easy to call things conspirarcy theories until proven down the track, poor thalomide children.

Incognito,  Too many people are putting too much "faith" in the vaccine.  In real terms, a vaccine does not stop a person from contracting the disease that they have been immunised against, it just prepares the bodies defences to stop it from adversely efffecting them.  They may still be a carrier of the disease and not show any symptoms.

Unfortunately too many people are not aware of the history of thalidomide, it was an excellent drug for it's intended use.  It was only if taken by those between 26 and 34 weeks of pregnancy that caused the fetus malformations.  This a good reason to hold back on forcing everyone to take any vaccines until that have been proven safe across all spectrums of the community.

Yep no guarantee that you will still not get covid, even the vaccine specialist admitted that recentlly, best outcome is it may prevent more serious symptoms. But vaccine has been made out to be the holy grail to end the pandemic and return life back to normal and this is what they are playing on.

 

Even Dr Fauci the so called coronavirus expert admits that PCR test should not be relied upon so why are they using it? Also why pay $75 per covid test? Why is it when a person dies from another cause and happens to test positive for covid is registered as dying of covid? I heard about a lady who was so upset about her friend who was fighting cancer for months and succumbed to death was written down as died from covid, also they get their funeral paid for and the hospital gets thousands of dollars for every death.

 

"Even Dr Fauci the so called coronavirus expert admits that PCR test should not be relied upon so why are they using it?"

 

Where and when did Dr Fauci say that - please produce the original quote.

Why do I have to prove what I read or hear, no one else does? 

This is one article and video where Dr Fauci talks about it:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/newly-surfaced-video-july-fauci-tests-dead-virus

Has got to do with the cycle threshold and Australia is using a higher one I have heard, sorry would have to do more research and I have better things to do, so you can do your own.

 

Argh, just ignore him Banjo. John Solomon owner of just the news has been debunked and refuted so many times  for his spreading of conspiracy theories, but he keeps plodding on.

He’s a covidiot’s dream LOL

 

Did you even watch the video? Have you some information direct from virologists or even Dr Fauci about it? I am not interested in "debunking" articles that may or may not be true from media.

The review I referenced above was authored by Flora Teoh. Teoh obtained a PhD in Biological Sciences from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. During her doctoral studies, she examined how a human-colonising microbe could evolve in response to changes within a mammalian host, and how this process could influence microbial virulence. After working as a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Molecular and Cell Biology, she joined Health Feedback in 2018 as science editor.

The Just the News article was authored by Daniel Payne who is a writer and editor based in Virginia. He graduated with honours from Virginia Commonwealth University, where he was an English major. He is an assistant editor at The College Fix, a daily news website that trains young college students in the craft of journalism.

I am not interested RnR just like you are not interested in watching the video with Dr Fauci talking, watch the video and get back to me.

I have watched the Dr Fauci video on your link multiple times ... he's mainly talking about how PCR tests can be used to indicate how infectious a person may be ... not whether the person has had covid or not ... as he says if they test positive "they've got it" (or have had it). So, the positive PCR tests show how many people have had the virus.

Tests with high Ct thresholds may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk.

CLAIM

“Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared to acknowledge that large numbers of positive COVID-19 cases may arise from oversensitive tests that pick up mere fragments of the virus rather than active, viable infections. If true, many patients may have been receiving false-positive test results”

VERDICT 

SOURCE: , 8 Nov. 2020   

DETAILS

Incorrect: Regardless of whether a person tested positive with a high or low viral load, a positive test indicates that the person is or has been infected with the virus, which qualifies them as a COVID-19 case. The high number of COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. is due to a large number of infected people, not the PCR test's sensitivity.

 

Good detective work RNR

 

You are so weird Lucca why waste your time, I saw what RnR posted no need to AMPLIFY it. I watched the video where Dr Fauci speaks about PCR tests did you? Find me an expert who tells me otherwise.

 

John F. Solomon of  "Just the News" is an American journalist, conspiracy theorist, media executive, and a conservative political commentator. 

He has in recent years been accused of magnifying small scandals and creating FAKE controversy.

I am glad Lucca "magnified" the verdict of that ridiculous claim. Many people do not click on links and so, may never know the nonsense you give credit to.

 

 

Here is a good video that tells you how PCR tests work, please watch before commenting or attacking my comments thanks.

https://youtu.be/S_1Z8cSXI-Q

Well explained and a good reason to report the Ct value in addition to a simple Positive result.

 

Contrary to some of the mind-boggling nonsense I have seen espoused by Incognito on this thread…the fact is… NO diet can offer immunity to COVID-19. The virus is not spread by eating the “wrong” food nor is there any reason to believe that vegans or vegetarians are less likely to catch it!

It astounds me that, even though, so much credible and scientific information is widely available through legitimate sources…you choose to argue  irrationally, armed with a bundle of false information from extreme right wing agitators and people with their own sinister agendas.

The coronavirus is NOT selective…hundreds of vegetarians and vegans have died along with non-vegetarians and non-vegans all over the world. The virus is transferred through the nose..mouth and eyes... and... although leading  a healthy lifestyle and eating a healthy diet could still be helpful when it comes to COVID-19 outcomes…NO particular diet gives you full protection.

Furthermore…as with influenza…many people claim not to have ever had it…wrong… most of those people are carriers and similarly with Covid-19. Many people can be walking around carrying the virus and infecting others.

That is why it is VITAL everyone gets tested.

 

 

Totally correct Sophie. There is no known miracle diet that will protect someone from the coronavirus. Eating sensibly on a daily basis is good for health anyway. Any age group, fit or unfit can catch this virus;

I agree it is “vital” for people to get tested even if they show no symptoms because one of the most frightening and dangerous aspects of coronavirus is to have asymptomatic people walking around spreading infection.

Sophie, I don't think anyone is denying that millions of people will contract the virus, Covid-19.  However, as very obvious in the Australian context, very few people are being killed by it.

In fact it is difficult to find any deaths in Australia of anyone under the age of 70 who did not have co-morbidities.  The US CDC has confirmed that the actual number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 that were caused by Covid-19 is less than 5% of the published numbers.

The US CDC assessed the US figures and their results showed that the typical victim had 2.5 comorbidities.

As I imagine you are aware, all Death Certificates must show 3 causes of death.  Old age would be the primary cause in those over the age of 95, but even if they just showed possibility of Covid-19, it is written on as well.

In real terms, if you are otherwise healthy, you have nothing to fear from contracting the virus from casual contact in a social situation.  If you have underlying health conditions that could put you at risk and are really worried, stay home.  The geographical areas in Australia where there is proven Covid-19 are very few and far between  The authorities know to the street addresses in Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane where the carriers live.

Ha Ha Bully Sophie will be so mad at you Couldabeen, wait for the onslaught of attack, she loves to call names too.

Her comment even said something about food born virus, whoever said that? And who said anything about food giving you immunity, not that easy, need to work on your immune system in many ways and leaving certain virus fuelling foods out of the diet helps. To say hundreds of vegetarian and vegans have died from covid too is irrelevant, you can be an unhealthy person no matter what diet, and where is the proof??, not like they are recording who eats what that dies of covid, so ridiculous it is funny lol

And the last comment that "many people are walking around carrying the virus and infecting others" is also laughable, where is the proof?? Just fearmongering for her Big Pharma mates or her own vested interests maybe??

Sophie is "allowed" to talk nonense but no one else is "allowed" otherwise they get a rap over the knuckles from Troll Sophie lol

Incognito, to continue in vein, on a very regular basis, we see examples where politics has tumped science and engineering.  There are many calls where "our" scientists are better than "your scientists".  There is the call to authority by people who never passed Year 12 Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Economics and Mathematics and blindly believe that what is presented to them in the media as the overall and irredeemable "facts".

In the case of the Covid-19 situation, even when the figures are fully presented, there is a reluctance to dig deeper.  The superficial death numbers are taken as blanket caused by the virus and the virus only.  It is staring us in the face that over 80% of the deaths in Victoria were those already in aged care facilities.  These victims did not contract the virus by going to the shops and not wearing a mask. Their lives were shortened by what appears to have been incompetent management of the facilities where the next of kin should've been confident that best practice was being observed.  Obviously it wasnt'

In Queensland, so far this year, over 30 times as many people have died in motor vehicle crashes than have been attributed to Covid-19.  These crashes have killed people from children to the elderly, no age has escaped the grim reaper in his quest.  On the other hand, no-one under 65 has been scooped up and taken by the Covid virus.

Yes I agree, the fact that the aged care industry was already incompetent before covid, and staff ratio was appalling it would not surprise me that they hid under the covid pandemic regarding deaths from neglect.

It also amazes me that so many people believe in the likes of Bill Gates who does not have any scientific background but is speaking about covid all the time, and people are believing him, goes to show how gullible people are without seeking the real truth, which is getting harder to find these days due to big tech blocking so much, we should have the right to exchange theories and discussion freely until we get to the real truth and not what is fed to us.

And if you took away the money payouts to many scientists and specialist talking certain things then we would also hear more truth, other thing is whisteblowers are shut down, locked up, deregulated etc, anything that goes agains the agenda. 

Lets see it for what it is and look at what people are really dying from, which is preventable diseases mostly.

 

 

There is some false information being circulated...thought I'd shine a torch on it..

 

 THE STATEMENT

An Instagram post claims that a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report “shows that 94% of COVID-19 deaths in the US had underlying medical conditions”.

The September 1 post features an image of a building with a CDC sign and is accompanied by a caption which reads, “It’s official! ITS (sic) A SCAM. 94% of listed COVID deaths had 2 or MORE severe and life threatening co morbidities.They were also of a ‘very advanced age’. #itsover.”

 

THE VERDICT

Based on the evidence, AAP FactCheck found the claims in the Instagram post to be false. The post incorrectly claims that only six per cent of recorded COVID-19 deaths were caused by the virus.

False – The primary claims within the post are inaccurate.

* AAP FactCheck is accredited by the Poynter Institute’s International Fact-Checking Network, which promotes best practice through a stringent and transparent Code of Principles. https://aap.com.au/

 

 

 

Sophie, on the other hand, you can go straight to the CDC website and read their report directly. Which is what I quoted from.  I know nothing about any Instagram posting.

Hi Couldabeen…although your comments could do with a good dose of enlightenment…I was referring to this…follow the link and when you see the “false” sign have a read.. 

https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/the_meeting_place/post/virus-from-china?page=86

Sophie, Please.  Pot.  Kettle. Black. I ask again, did you actually go to the US CDC website and read the report direct from their posting?  Or are you running with a third hand discussion on a second hand summary?

I had already read your "False" posting, but it does not overrule that from the CDC.

The virulence of the Covid-19 virus in the Australian population has been overstated to engender a level of fear that is grossly inappropriate.

From an article posted today "the median age of deaths is 86."  Find a validated death for an otherwise healthy Australian under the age of 65 from Covid-19.

Over 30 times as many Queenslanders have died in vehicle crashes this year than Covid-19 and the State Government still insists that the danger from this virus justifies shutting out areas where there have been no deaths from it.

 

Clearly you have no idea what the whole thing is about!

A Claim via instagram was made by conspiracy theorists including Jeff Berwick stating the CDC "quietly updated" its COVID-19 mortality statistics to show only 6% of previously reported deaths were actually due to the coronavirus, while the remaining 94% died from pre-existing health conditions. 

Far right conservatives including Trump and conspiracy theorists twisted what the CDC said. Your “friend” Incognito posted that twisted rubbish here :

https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/the_meeting_place/post/virus-from-china?page=86

The so called “claim” was fact checked by multiple social platforms and deleted by instagram because it was utter trash. However Incognito conspiracy theorist, decided to post this garbage “information” anyway.

Obviously, you are also on the same page as he is. Therefore, I have to say this is my final post to you since I have no time to waste with people who have a blatant disregard for the truth.

By the way, we are speaking about the CDC and what is supposed to have been falsely reported...since when did the conversation change to Queensland?

Have a nice evening and goodbye.

 

 

Hahahaha - Wow "guys" upset the Troll eh?   - once again posting it's own "twisted rubbish"!  The "know all that knows nothing"!

Gets extremely upset if it looks like anyone happens to be "getting along" as very few (if any?) reply to "her" on YLC!  Hence the bitter "Wrath of the Troll"!  

Burnt all the bridges with people on here over the years (except of course the one it resides under!) roflmao

Be veryyyyy grateful it's the  "final post"  but if the past is anything to go by - it won't be!  

Now students here you are witnessing a typical case of cabin fever due to lockdown and various other comorbidities..

 

The Millennial Doctor- Mighty or Mediocre? | RheumNow

 

Prognosis: Incurable...

 

 

 

Foxy

8 mins ago

Once again I would ask you to NOT engage with me any further and I will give you the same respect! 

------

Hilarious...now Foxy who engaged with whom on here? Is there an imposter Foxy running around on the forum?

Seriously... you need to do something about your Retrogade Amnesia!

 

 

 

Sophie, and yet you admit that you still have not actually read the report from the CDC on their website?

You keep refering to a third party website that hasn't referenced the CDC website as such but another source which has interpreted the CDC report.

You do not know as much as you think you know if you cannot read the CDC report and interpret it within your own educationed disciplines.

Referencing it to the Queensland situation is a fair call as we can more easily see and interpret the progress without having to peel away the extreme hysterical screen that much of the mass media have put on the reporting of the virus.

The United States has officially recorded a quarter of a million coronavirus deaths, as the country's overwhelmed hospitals turn to unconventional methods to accommodate the surging cases.

The US has recorded 250,029 coronavirus-related deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 11,485,176 total cases of the virus recorded in the country since the pandemic began.

The country's death toll and case count is by far the largest in the world.

Brazil has the second highest death toll at 166,699, and India the second most cases at 8,912,907.

Thank God for the quick and efficient action of our State Premiers that here in Australia we are not in the same boat..

 

Sophie, how does the death toll as repeated here by you, compare to the usual death toll for the influenza and other seasonal respiratory conditions?

You may like to read this discussion on the Covid-19 virus for a slightly different perspectice:

https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=21143&page=1

Excellent article Couladbeen. Thanks for that, doubt Sophie will even read it, she is stuck in her box of fearmongering.

The life of a troll must be a very sad and lonely one.

"Sophie, and yet you admit that you still have not actually read the report from the CDC on their website?" (Couldabeen)

 ----

That’s a lie…show me where I “admitted” any such thing! The trouble with people like you who subscribe to fake news is that even in normal life you can’t help but make propagandic and deceitful assumptions.

 

Couldabeen, have you got a link to the CDC report you quoted from please?

I must have missed it in the flurry of posts above.

Also from the CDC which may be of interest to some ...

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Figure Notes:
Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

POSTED BY INCOGNITO : here: 

https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/the_meeting_place/post/virus-from-china?page=86

COPY AND PASTED ARTICLE FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED:

August 26, 2020, the CDC had released data showing 94% of people who had died during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. died “with” the virus, not “from” it. Only 6% had COVID-19 listed as the sole cause of death on the death certificate. Hence, the real death toll, those who unarguably died as a direct result of the infection, is only around 10,000.

For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death,” the CDC stated. This is an important distinction. Yet mainstream media continues to report that nearly 200,000 have died “from” COVID-19 in the U.S, thereby increasing national fear so they can implement their lockdowns and other strategies to limit our personal freedoms and liberty.

The media are also grossly misusing the term “case,” in reference to the COVID-19 case load. A case is a medical term for a patient with a symptomatic type of infection. It’s not someone who tests positive for antibodies or pieces of viral DNA. By referring to all positive tests as “cases,” they’re able to fan the flames of panic, making the situation sound far worse than it actually is.

Many still do not understand that most of those who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic. They think these are sick people in the hospital and that rising “case” numbers mean there will be a rise in deaths. Statistics reveal this simply isn’t true, and that there’s not a linear correlation between positive tests and deaths.

 

Can You Pass This True Or False Anatomy Quiz?

 

 

avatarSophie2 days ago 

THE STATEMENT

An Instagram post claims that a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report “shows that 94% of COVID-19 deaths in the US had underlying medical conditions”.

The September 1 post features an image of a building with a CDC sign and is accompanied by a caption which reads, “It’s official! ITS (sic) A SCAM. 94% of listed COVID deaths had 2 or MORE severe and life threatening co morbidities.They were also of a ‘very advanced age’. #itsover.”

 

THE VERDICT

Based on the evidence, AAP FactCheck found the claims in the Instagram post to be false. The post incorrectly claims that only six per cent of recorded COVID-19 deaths were caused by the virus.

False – The primary claims within the post are inaccurate.

* AAP FactCheck is accredited by the Poynter Institute’s International Fact-Checking Network, which promotes best practice through a stringent and transparent Code of Principles. https://aap.com.au/

 

And from others: lots more links exist but I cannot be bothered...

An online conspiracy theory retweeted by President Donald Trump misconstrued data regarding the number of people who have died from the coronavirus.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/no-the-cdc-has-not-quietly-updated-covid-19-death-estimates-67902

 

Fauci debunks theories of low CDC coronavirus death toll: ‘There are 180,000-plus deaths’ in U.S.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/fauci-debunks-theories-of-low-cdc-coronavirus-death-toll-there-are-180000-plus-deaths-in-us.html

 

Why are you insisting Couldabeen (followed by your sidekick Incognito) that this misleading information is true when all credible sources have debunked it???

 

 

 

 

PS:  Tell me why you are lying that I "admitted" I have not read the report?

Why else would I post a refutation if I had not read the report????

 

 

9 comments