Prophecy for the world

for those who are interested in the conclusions reached from some very good research, here is a list of likely possibilities for the world over the next 15 years or so.

australia, of course, will also be affected, but how?

these are the key points from "Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence" by Dr. Nafeez Ahmed.  

  • Global net energy decline is the underlying cause of the decline in the rate of global economic growth.  In the short term, slow or absent growth in Europe and the US is complicit in voter discontent and the success of anti-establishment politicians. 
  • Europe is now a post-peak oil society, with its domestic oil production declining every year since 1999 by 6%.  Shale oil and gas is unlikely to offset this decline. 
  • Europe’s main sources of oil imports are in decline. Former Soviet Union producers, their production already in the negative, are likely to terminate exports by 2030.  Russia’s oil production is plateauing and likely to decline after 2030 at the latest. 
  • In the US, conventional oil has already peaked and is in sharp decline.  The shortfall is being made up by unconventional sources such as tight oil and shale gas, which are likely to peak by 2025. California will continue to experience extensive drought over the coming decades, permanently damaging US agriculture.
  • Between 2020 and 2035, the US and Mexico could experience unprecedented military tensions as the latter rapidly runs down its conventional oil reserves, which peaked in 2006. By 2020, its exports will revert to zero, decimating Mexican state revenues and potentially provoking state failure shortly thereafter.
  • After 2025, Iraq is unlikely to survive as a single state.  The country is experiencing worsening water scarcity, fueling an ongoing agricultural crisis, while its oil production is plateauing due to a combination of mounting costs of production and geopolitical factors.
  • Saudi Arabia will face a ‘perfect storm’ of energy, food and economic shocks most likely before 2030, and certainly within the next 20 years.
  • Egypt will begin to experience further outbreaks of civil unrest leading to escalating state failure after 2021.  Egypt will likely become a fully failed state after 2037.
  • India’s hopes to become a major economic player will falter due to looming food, water and energy crises.  India’s maximum potential domestic renewable energy capacity is insufficient to meet projected demand growth.
  • China’s total oil production is likely to peak in 2020.  Its rate of economic growth is expected to fall continuously in coming decades, while climate change will damage its domestic agriculture, forcing it to rely increasingly on expensive imports by 2022.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nafeez-ahmed

 

5 comments

Pretty pessimistic. And all about oil.

It's a good thing Australia is so enthusiastically embracing our perfect opportunities for renewables.

Well, some of us are.

unfortunately, barak, all  forms of renewable energy need very large amounts of fossil fuels to mine, import and transport the materials, manufacture and process them, construct them, deliver them, repair and maintain them.

without the power of oil/coal, there will not be much future for renewables i am sorry to say.

nuclear is not the answer.  it also needs large amounts of fossil fuels to begin and continue.  and the de-commissioning of nuke. power stations is hideously expensive.  no insurance company in the world will cover any form of nuke. energy.  then there's the waste......

same for fusion, hydrogen.

I agree with you on nuclear. Disagree on renewables. It ain't that bad.

Why would we put aside all logical knowledge, in favour of the opinion of a childish 38 year old investigative journalist.  A lot of his debatable work is already out of date, even if correct, in the first place.  He refers to Saudi Arabia facing the perfect storm within 20 years.  American technlogy has perfected the extraction of fuel oil from shale to at least $15 per barrell cheaper than Saudi Arabia.  The oil war brought about by Saudi, has resulted in their reserves dropping from $US7 trillion to less than 5 trillion in 3 years.  They are looking down the barrell of bankruptcy, & civil war will occur, long before that.  China is on the verge of a trade war with the USA & they are buying Russian oil at a price that does not even cover the cost of extraction.  Their 1.4 billion people labour force, is on the verge of being totally replaced by the much cheaper Robot Manufacturing Age of the Wealthy Western World.    The strangest development that is most likely to follow these oil driven disasters is that Australia's natural wealth will keep us in the position of the Lucky Country.

 

thanks for your reply innes. i'd appreciate your comments on the following points:

the usa government forecasts of their oil and gas abundance have been exaggerated and ignore the increasing evidence of an industry in decline. us shale oil production, as of june 2016, was down 13% from its peak in march 2015. the us shale bubble is deflating quickly.

you say that russia is selling its oil to china “at a price that does not even cover the cost of extraction”. while it is true that china is buying more of its oil from russia, it could not be at a price that does not cover the cost of extraction. russia would not produce and sell its oil at a loss.

you say “australia's natural wealth will keep us in the position of the lucky country.” not without importing oil as the production of our natural wealth (ie beef, mining, wheat) is dependent on importing oil cheaply and it will not always be cheap or even available in the future. droughts affect wheat/agricultural exports and mining profits are not taxed very highly since abbott and gillard axed the super profits mining tax.

the effects of climate change are already changing the fortunes of the so-called 'lucky country' with more to come.  i believe this will be our biggest challenge.

i can list web sites as references if you wish.

 

kika, I can only make comments, as you asked.  Both of us would have no problem producing web sites to prove anything we want.

Shale oil in the US.  When the technology was first discovered just a few short years ago, over 1,000 US shale oil Companies appeared out of the wood work.  Their costs of extraction were over $us 50 per barrell, but they kept producing at a loss on shareholders money until most of them went bankrupt & leaving the actual production in 2016 to minute quantities.  Currently, OPEC Countries, especially Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia are producing & selling oil at a loss in order to pay their interest bill.  This practice has cost Saudi over $2 trillion of their reserves in 3 years.  China is importing most of their fuel oil by pipeline direct from Russia, at less than extraction cost & making a mint out of one of the cheapest retail fuel prices (fixed) in the World.  Not that it matters that much, because fuel oil will likely be largely replaced within 10 years.  In the meantime, the cost of shale oil extraction has fallen to less than $35 per barrell & dropping.

There are roughly 300 Countries in the World today & Australia is in the lowest 15% by way of population.  BUT, we have the 21st biggest economy of all the Countries with our trade balance being a positive $25B in 2014/15.  Most of that comes from the extraction of mining wealth.  The coal & Iron ore will become very less important in the next few years, but it will be outstandingly replaced by LNG,  Uranium, Aluminium & copper.

We have costed ourselves out of most production & our only other income comes from tourism, education & coffee shops.  We are way overgoverned & foundation members of the Nanny State.

In my uneducated opinion, we are indeed the lucky Country & will remain so long after I lose interest.

BTW, I fully expect that Barak will come forth with a comment like:-  But petrol is a lot cheaper in Brunei.

NONSENSE INDEED

One thing that baffles me, is that so many are critical & upset about Trump tearing up the TPP.  Our signature to that agreement was so bad that even Mussitate & I agreed.  Our exports to America total $10B, P/A.  Our imports from America total $25B  P/A.  We are a winner by 150%.

I agree with Mussitate. Oh, and innes too.

Couldn't see how the TPP was good for Australia.

thank you innes and everyone.  very interesting information.

but i do believe that the many effects of climate change will devastate all economies, societies and living creatures.  some of the effects are now known, and we will have many unpleasant surprises in our future.

i am not optimistic at all, especially with the lack of action on - at least - slowing down climate change.

Well, make sure you don't vote for our current coal-loving government, or any of its friends.

no. i would never vote for that mob.

5 comments



To make a comment, please register or login

Preview your comment