Prophecy for the world
for those who are interested in the conclusions reached from some very good research, here is a list of likely possibilities for the world over the next 15 years or so.
australia, of course, will also be affected, but how?
these are the key points from "Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence" by Dr. Nafeez Ahmed.
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Global net energy decline is the underlying cause of the decline in the rate of global economic growth. In the short term, slow or absent growth in Europe and the US is complicit in voter discontent and the success of anti-establishment politicians.
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Europe is now a post-peak oil society, with its domestic oil production declining every year since 1999 by 6%. Shale oil and gas is unlikely to offset this decline.
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Europe’s main sources of oil imports are in decline. Former Soviet Union producers, their production already in the negative, are likely to terminate exports by 2030. Russia’s oil production is plateauing and likely to decline after 2030 at the latest.
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In the US, conventional oil has already peaked and is in sharp decline. The shortfall is being made up by unconventional sources such as tight oil and shale gas, which are likely to peak by 2025. California will continue to experience extensive drought over the coming decades, permanently damaging US agriculture.
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Between 2020 and 2035, the US and Mexico could experience unprecedented military tensions as the latter rapidly runs down its conventional oil reserves, which peaked in 2006. By 2020, its exports will revert to zero, decimating Mexican state revenues and potentially provoking state failure shortly thereafter.
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After 2025, Iraq is unlikely to survive as a single state. The country is experiencing worsening water scarcity, fueling an ongoing agricultural crisis, while its oil production is plateauing due to a combination of mounting costs of production and geopolitical factors.
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Saudi Arabia will face a ‘perfect storm’ of energy, food and economic shocks most likely before 2030, and certainly within the next 20 years.
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Egypt will begin to experience further outbreaks of civil unrest leading to escalating state failure after 2021. Egypt will likely become a fully failed state after 2037.
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India’s hopes to become a major economic player will falter due to looming food, water and energy crises. India’s maximum potential domestic renewable energy capacity is insufficient to meet projected demand growth.
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China’s total oil production is likely to peak in 2020. Its rate of economic growth is expected to fall continuously in coming decades, while climate change will damage its domestic agriculture, forcing it to rely increasingly on expensive imports by 2022.
- https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nafeez-ahmed
5 comments
5 comments
Pretty pessimistic. And all about oil.
It's a good thing Australia is so enthusiastically embracing our perfect opportunities for renewables.
Well, some of us are.