Scientists have no idea about how many killed in fires

firefighter

Many billions of animals may have already been killed by bushfires sweeping across Australia and many more will also die from burnt food sources and injuries sustained during the blazes.

At least one species – the long-footed potaroo – is feared extinct. On Kangaroo Island in South Australia, more than half of a population of 50,000 koalas are believed to have been killed. Hundreds of billions of insects are also feared dead. Scientists continue to raise their estimates for the animal death toll, but the true death toll will not be known for a long time, as scientists still cannot re-enter burnt areas to make an assessment.

“We are all very, very worried,” says Euan Ritchie, associate professor of wildlife ecology at Deakin University.

“Realistically, the number of animals killed in these fires is many, many, many billions. And we’ll never know what that true number is, because for some species we don’t know their abundance and what we have lost.”

“The overall death toll is going to be difficult to comprehend,” says Dr Mark Eldridge, the Australian Museum’s top animal scientist.

Other endangered species likely to have been affected include the spotted-tail quoll, brush-tailed rock-wallaby and corroboree frog.

Professor Chris Dickman, from the University of Sydney, raised his projected animal death toll for NSW alone from 480 million to 800 million, but he’s still calling his findings ‘highly conservative’.

Dr Rebecca Johnson, chief scientist at the Australian Museum, agrees that 800 million was an underestimate. 

“The scientists have been conservative. And their estimate is only for a handful of species. It is not an overreach,” she said.

“What I’m hearing from other experts is we have no comparison for this current fire. The scale, the intensity of this, it is difficult to compare it to anything we have on record.”

"Let's be clear, these are unprecedented fires and we anticipate that we will see an unprecedented impact on our biodiversity," said Victorian Environment Minister Lily D'Ambrosio.

"Whether that's threatened species, both flora and fauna, we anticipate that there will be a significant impact."

12 comments

It just part of the natural cycle of the world. 

Bollocks. This is a man-made disaster where we have, despite warnings over several decades, chosen to put our self-interest over that of other living (now dead) creatures.

Unprecedented ...

Never having happened or existed in the past

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/unprecedented

A lot of it really is man-made 54-11, I couldn't believe that so many of those fires were started deliberately.  What kind of sicko does that?

So now they are counting insects to boost the numbers???????????

The numbers are bad enough without the predictated loss of insects,what has happened and is still happening will be counted for years and years,and let's hope this doesn't return again,but the indicators are we face more horror of fires,so i hope the people who fairdinkum scientist are listened to,sick of listening to pollie excuses,espescially those climate denying prehistoric apes we still have in Govt.

The numbers are bad enough without the predictated loss of insects,what has happened and is still happening will be counted for years and years,and let's hope this doesn't return again,but the indicators are we face more horror of fires,so i hope the people who fairdinkum scientist are listened to,sick of listening to pollie excuses,espescially those climate denying prehistoric apes we still have in Govt.

Insects are an important part of any ecological system.

 

I certainly hope they are not counting insects as animals, otherwise these people should be sacked from their positions if they can't understand the difference!

Also, the analysis to arrive at "estimates" should not be that hard. Start with an estimate of how many Billions of animals we have in all such forested areas (not deserts), if they know, then arrive at a percentage of the area burnt, and bingo, they can estimate the numbers lost! It will be interesting to know the first number - how many Billions of animals do we maintain in Australia? We may be doing a great job without being aware if it!

So now they are counting insects to boost the numbers???????????

The long footed potaroo is not "extinct"..it is endangered.

Hi Sophie, that is correct. Will mention there are 1.5 million beetle species and 5.5 million insect species that we know about - of those only 48 species are known to be extinct. 

However, if some countries keep eating stir fried insects at the rate they are, then more will bcome extinct!!

Hey Bro, how goes it?  Good info about insects. Yup,insects are animals and we need all our animals, but we cn afford to lose a few

 

https://australianmuseum.net.au/learn/animals/insects/why-most-animals-are-insects/

https://sciencing.com/differences-between-animals-insects-8673417.html

Since these fires are widely acknowledged to be unprecedented in their ferocity, how can they also be 'part of the natural cycle'?  Insects need to be included because, although we see them as mainly of nuisance value, they are in fact an essential part of the ecosystem on which we depend for survival. Without insects, for example, the plants on which we and most other animals depend for food would soon die out for lack of pollination. 

Since these fires are widely acknowledged to be unprecedented in their ferocity, how can they also be 'part of the natural cycle'?  Insects need to be included because, although we see them as mainly of nuisance value, they are in fact an essential part of the ecosystem on which we depend for survival. Without insects, for example, the plants on which we and most other animals depend for food would soon die out for lack of pollination. 

The current fires are a disaster but when a Victorian politician uses the term "unprecedented" then they have a very short memory. The Kinglake fire in 2009 took 173 lives and about 3500 buildings were destroyed. Australia's Cheif Scientist, Allan Finkel, has publicly stated that the current drought has not been caused by climate change and the IPCC has stated that the fires have nothing to do with climate change. What we are experiencing is the combination of a prolonged drought, a build-up of fuel, hot westerly winds, accidental fires, arsonists and lightning strikes.

To clarify my position, I strongly believe that there is climate change as I also believe that climate change is cyclical. Scientists have proved that the Earth has had both ice ages and hot periods over a span of 15 million yeras and we are currently going through a warm cycle. I also believe that politicians are using climate change as a tool to get re-elected. It's not that long ago we were warned about a hole in the ozone layer follwed by global warming. Since 1998, the average global temperature is dropping so global warming has become climate change.

I agree politicians are scared of losing there seat . So let go with the flo . All the young generation are being taught all about Climate Change . And the politicians are worried unless they back the climate change when the next generation vote lose seat .  

Why I have asked member and he agreed with me 

"Since 1998, the average global temperature is dropping"

Rubbish, Horace. See NASA's website on the subject.

I don't trust NASA's figures as they have been "seasonally adjusted". Please take the time to watch the following video clip which will give some details from a respected scientist.

https://youtu.be/EHFfOOF-6Fs

I have just had a look at the video, admit I didn't watch it until the very end, there are some very interesting facts, that's of course if they are true, I am not prepared to make a call either way because I just don't know, the information certainly goes against current information from lots of different sites. I saw a statistic the other day that stated 99.1% of climate scientists from 80 different countries all agree that climate change is happening, the amount of effect that climate change is affecting the planet varies by a significant amount, so I admit to being a little confused. I believe climate change seems to have occurred during my life time, but I don't know how much it's changed or if my memory recollects things as accurately as it used to. I do know that the current catastrophic events are the worst I can remember, but as to the cause again I am confused by the different stories that are circulating, we hear by not back burning is a major cause, as is deliberate arson, the current drought is contributin, but some are saying the drought itself is caused by climate change, we have heard the PM is at fault for not acting quickly enough, but the NSW commissioner has stated that there wasn't anything more that the PM could have done and that no one predicted the extent of the ferocity of the fire, others have claimed when Bob Carr was premier he and the greens put gates across fire trails to stop 4 wheel driving to protect the bush, Fitzsimmons the NSW commisio said he didn't believe that was a factor. With so much contradictory information I don't know how anyone can identity a cause, maybe it's all of the above.

Jim, I heard a scientist expalin how a poll was conducted amongst his peer group and one of the questions was; "Do you believe that there is climate change?" to which he replied in the affirmative. The next question was; "Do you believe that climate change is mainly man made?" to which he replied in the negative. Only the first question and responses were published so when you read that x% of scientists agree that there is climate change, that is correct but taken out of context.

Thanks Sophie, I read all of the threads as well as the original post and we have some for and some against. The link doesn't indicate either way who is right or who is wrong but there is certainly a healthy discussion by some learned people.

 

I am glad you read it Horace. Just another point of view and as Jim points out, it’s hard to know who or what to fully believe.

My position is: climate change is cyclic, but also exaggerated by human factors. In my opinion, it is now the formidable task of scientists to decide how much intervention is needed to curb  the human interference.

 

 

 

So you believe in climate change Horace Cope,do you think it might change in the next 15million years.

So you believe in climate change Horace Cope,do you think it might change in the next 15million years.

So we are up to "many billions" of dead animals now! Just a couple of days ago it was an estimated 500,000.

 

 

Wrong. The (conservative) estimate was 500 million, not 500,000.

 

I still cant believe that so many people do not believe that climate change is happening and now the scientists are saying that it is happening at a much faster rate that they predicted sea levels are rising at an alarming rate islands will become unihabitable in the near future Australia will be a place where kangaroos will not want to live every year it gets worse while we have governements that do nothing to stop it. Scientists are the experts when it comes to climate change not politicians and billionairs. I have no doubt that our young people who one day will be our leaders will try to revers the damage that has been created and we will just die off and it is not that far off 

 

"we will just die off and it is not that far off "

 

Can you hazard a guess as to how long we've got?

 

 

" I told you how long we've got

All the time in the world

I've got a thing for you


You've got a thing for me  "

 

One of our Talks at Probus we had a Lecturer from UWA, it was about five years ago and we cannot remember his name, but he was a disbeliever and brought his information as back up.

I do know that the cloud that comes out of chimney stacks in the UK is steam and not pollution as some media reports have stated.

Image result for chimney stacks in Yorkshire puffing out steam photo

I posted this also on Fires....to answer the Headings Question this relates to Kangaroo Island and is horrific.

 

 

A. Bushfires wiped out 32,000 sheep, 500 cattle, 800 bee hives, 65 alpacas and thousands of koalas on the island 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7878007/The-devastating-cost-bushfires-Kangaroo-Islands-rare-wildlife.html?ito=email_share_article-image-share  

 Brings tears to my eyes reading this, those poor animals. 

A. Bushfires wiped out 32,000 sheep, 500 cattle, 800 bee hives, 65 alpacas and thousands of koalas on the island

https://www.fondazioneslowfood.com/en/ark-of-taste-slow-food/kangaroo-island-ligurian-bee-honey/

I'd never heard of the Ligurian Bee till now.

Kangaroo Island Ligurian bee honey

The bees on KI were a rare species and were completely disease free.

In a lot of places including overseas there is various types of dieseases that can wipe out some of them.

The bees on KI were a rare species and were completely disease free.

In a lot of places including overseas there is various types of dieseases that can wipe out some of them.

I don't believe that Lightning storms are a result of Climate Change. I agree that they spread more now that there is so much undergrowth and grass along the sides of roads. Grass along the sides of roads should be controlled by an appropriate Authority. They expect property owners including those in country towns to keep theirs down but some parts they are not supposed to touch. not all grasses even in forests and National Parks are native grasses.

In all areas, metro and country you are not to cut down large trees even if they are dead and mamy put lives at risk.

I know of one person who asked the council on several occasions to cut out a street tree(it wasn't a significant one) that was constantly dropping branches. It was only when he wrote to them and stated that if a large branch damaged his property including work vehicles that they would be sued they decided they had better had another look at it. It had previoudly dropped branches across the road where school pupils and their parents walk every school day. Ig somebody had walked along there as one dropped somebody could easily been injured or even killed. When the tree was removed they discovered the trees definitely had borers in it as they had been told appeared to be the case and part of the tree was hollow. How many others like that area in areas where fires are likely. A large tree can burn for several days. You can tell if they are still burning if the trunk of it still feels really warm a few days later. Sometimes the roots catch fire and gradually disintergrate or later rot. I know somebody with a country property so I have some knowledge of what happens. At night even 3 weeks later you can see a tree burning at night.  You can see a red "glow"..........A lot of farmers have their own fire trucks or trailers with water tanks on them. At one bad bushfire that burnt for nearly a month in total some of the farmers ran out of money to refill fuel after they had used all the fuel including the large spare supply.  They had to apply to the Govt for funds to buy fuel or stop helping to put fires out

I don't believe that Lightning storms are a result of Climate Change. I agree that they spread more now that there is so much undergrowth and grass along the sides of roads. Grass along the sides of roads should be controlled by an appropriate Authority. They expect property owners including those in country towns to keep theirs down but some parts they are not supposed to touch. not all grasses even in forests and National Parks are native grasses.

In all areas, metro and country you are not to cut down large trees even if they are dead and mamy put lives at risk.

I know of one person who asked the council on several occasions to cut out a street tree(it wasn't a significant one) that was constantly dropping branches. It was only when he wrote to them and stated that if a large branch damaged his property including work vehicles that they would be sued they decided they had better had another look at it. It had previoudly dropped branches across the road where school pupils and their parents walk every school day. Ig somebody had walked along there as one dropped somebody could easily been injured or even killed. When the tree was removed they discovered the trees definitely had borers in it as they had been told appeared to be the case and part of the tree was hollow. How many others like that area in areas where fires are likely. A large tree can burn for several days. You can tell if they are still burning if the trunk of it still feels really warm a few days later. Sometimes the roots catch fire and gradually disintergrate or later rot. I know somebody with a country property so I have some knowledge of what happens. At night even 3 weeks later you can see a tree burning at night.  You can see a red "glow"..........A lot of farmers have their own fire trucks or trailers with water tanks on them. At one bad bushfire that burnt for nearly a month in total some of the farmers ran out of money to refill fuel after they had used all the fuel including the large spare supply.  They had to apply to the Govt for funds to buy fuel or stop helping to put fires out

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