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Second wave in Victoria hinders Australian recovery

The spike in COVID-19 cases throughout Melbourne over the past week is expected to slow the recovery of the Australian economy, says market researcher IBISWorld, as Victoria is the second biggest contributor to national GDP.

More than 537 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded in Victoria in the past week, prompting a return to lockdown across 12 suburbs, including the complete quarantine of several high-rise towers.

In 2018-19, Victoria contributed 23.7 per cent of Australia’s national GDP, with most of this productivity coming from wholesale (18.7 per cent), retail (13.7 per cent), construction (13.5 per cent) and manufacturing (12.8 per cent) sectors.

As a result of Victoria’s slide, Australian GDP is expected to decline by 1.0 per cent in 2020-21, before recovering by 4.3 per cent in 2021-22.

“The second wave of COVID-19 cases in Victoria is a threat to overall Australian recovery. It underscores just how quickly this virus can return and should make other states and territories wary of relaxing quarantine measures too quickly,” said IBISWorld Senior Industry Analyst Yin Yeoh.

The latest outbreak is expected to postpone any plans for Australia to reactivate international travel with other countries that have contained COVID-19, such as New Zealand and Thailand.

“While Victoria has been the first Australian region to experience a second wave of COVID-19, it is unlikely to be the last. Local outbreaks and lockdowns are likely to be the new normal for some time,” said Ms Yeoh.

How do you think we can contend with multiple outbreaks over time? What are your hopes for the ‘new normal’?


The term "second wave" is emotive and it is incorrect to use it because of the Victorian problem. The term "second wave" was used to describe the Spanish Flu pandemic when the numbers were in decline and then there was an increase that was greater than the original onset. Victoria's increase is less than the original onset and the rest of Australia is still showing very low figures.

Don't think the rest of Australia is safe. That's when it will happen.

exactly Horace, we are still in the first wave of infections as the virus moves through the community. It is scarcely the second wave while a tiny fraction of the population has been exposed. The first peak comprised mostly returned travellers.


Are You Ready For The Second Wave Of Micro Markets? | Vending ... this is absolutely what was feared and it's happening. Still some people are burying their heads in the sand and until they accept this reality, there will be very little going forward for Victoria. I suspect, it won't be the same for other states. Other states will not suffer as much as Victoria and I believe Western Australia will fare the best. The "recovery" time for Victoria will be lengthy as even internationally they are appearing as the wayward child of Australia.



I agree with your comment Lucca and can't stress enough how proud I am of West Australians and our Premier. He did the right thing from the start and is holding out despite the arrogance of the PM and the money hungry Palmer to open our borders.

It appears many don’t seem to understand the meaning of “second wave” which is..the disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. Then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.

This is what concerns me if we open our borders while this crisis exists in Victoria.

Spot on Sophie. Will add this - wondering how this pandemic will pan out? One possibility is that cases of the disease will start decreasing when enough people develop immunity, either through infection or vaccination. Another possible scenario is that the virus will continue to circulate and establish itself as a common respiratory virus, like the flu, but that's way ahead.


What in heaven's name are the security people doing at Sydney Airport? Apparently a plane touched down at Sydney Airport last evening from Victoria and no one was tested for Co-Vid. The excuse was they were still testing another arrival before this one and they hadn't finished. Oh spare me the thought. !!

The health team did not meet the gate at arrival however the passengers were tested in Victoria before travelling and disembarked. Despite the arrival check issues, two-thirds of arriving passengers were checked before leaving Sydney airport. Names for the remaining third were provided by Jetstar to the police for follow-up.

It is depressing. We had a feeling of hope in Australia and now it is gone. I wish we could have tried to 'eliminate' the virus, like New Zealand and Western Australia, instead of following a suppression principle. You have to wonder if people in power really know what they are doing?

early days yet, need to revisit in another year before judging. The elimination strategy might just be an expensive folly that has kicked the tin down the road and simply postponed inevitable dealing with the virus.  Do you think international borders will stay closed forever? Only need one infected traveller from overseas to set it off once we have gone back to life as usual. It's rolling a dice on likelihood of sufficiently vaccinated population befiore the inevitable breach occurs  .

Regardless of what you say Farside, right now our sense of safe freedom has disappeared in most countries. God knows how long we have to wait to get a vaccination, if ever. The second best thing for us all would be to live in an Australian state or country (like NZ) that feels safe to move about in. For me in Oz that would be SA, WA, TAS, NT and perhaps Qld. Vic is a mess and NSW is vulnerable. I wouldn't be surprised to see NSW follow Victoria shortly because many mistakes are being made. Even if the freedom for people to move between states is limited it is better than lockdown if it keeps people feeling free to move within their state. Right now that would feel like a good short term gain.

be careful what you wish for Ny19. There is a reason suppression was the preferred strategy to elimination. Even if a vaccine is developed, and that is no certainty, why would the bulk of the population worry about a disease that for them is mostly benign or mild, for the sake of geriatrics and those already with significant comorbities, not likely.

We all understand the current circunstances however Vic is not a mess by world standards - 41 in hospital (7 in ICU), under 900 active cases, 22 deaths of elderly people, 2058/2575 recovered is not a mess. Plenty of places with more than 5 million people would trade places. This is a fraction of last year's sseasonal flu epidemic that saw hospitals and ICUs at capacity, with 50x more cases and 5x more deaths.

The coronavirus may be airborne and could float beyond 6 feet in restaurants, bars, and other indoor locations.


 Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) via Droplets and Aerosols ...


The World Health Organisation on Thursday acknowledged for the first time that it’s possible the coronavirus may be transmitted through aerosols, which can linger in the air over several feet.

This kind of airborne transmission had previously only been acknowledged by the WHO in hospitals, where aerosol-generating procedures like intubation and resuscitation occur.

Previously, the WHO maintained that the virus is generally spread from person to person through respiratory droplets, which are heavy, and fall to the ground within a few feet.

But there is lots of new evidence that major coronavirus outbreaks have spread at churches, in bars, restaurants, offices, nightclubs, and other closed, stuffy settings.

WHO also acknowledged for the first time that the coronavirus may be passed around in the air across a poorly-ventilated room, even between people who may be spaced more than 6 feet apart..and..through air conditioning systems.


(Taken from Business Insider and




Is there any evidence of anybody contracting covid from aerosolised droplets outside of a lab experiment? But if we are to wear masks then remember when removing your mask that the inside and the outside should both be considered as contaminated with virus and after wearing must either be safely disposed into waste or sanitised for reuse. Hands then should be washed and any surfaces contaminated by the mask or hands must be sanitised, each and every time.