The future is here

Must read article on how our lives will change dramatically in 20 years.

The following points are taken from Udo Gollub, the CEO of 17 Minute Languages Facebook post...

 

  •  Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
  • Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
  • Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
  • Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
  • In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
  • So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
  • Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
  • Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
  • It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
  • Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
  • Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
  • Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
  • Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
  • Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
  • Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
  • With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
  • Health:  The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
  • It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
  • 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
  • Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
  • At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
  • In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
  • Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
  • If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
  • Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
  • Agriculture:  There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
  • Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
  • There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
  • Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
  • Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
  • Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
  • Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.

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10 comments

lol - people  who were "smart" enough  to buy Bitcoins are now laughing all the way to the bank!........... there will be another .... trust me!   :-)

Although bitcoin and other crypto currencies have successfully established themselves it is the block chain software , that they are based on , a publicly published ledger , that will alter for the better transactions in the future .

..why isn't the massive "rise" of Robots mentioned in this article?  They are already being used in Nursing Homes in the UK. lifting and helping patients and especially being used for assisting Dementia patients...

Japan now has Robots so "human like" it is creepy ....saw a Doco. recently and they placed some in shopping centres etc. and people didn't know the difference!  Also there is a Hotel in Japan completely staffed by Robots -  which is a huge tourist attraction......this has been up and running for a few years now......

Zombies? Hahahaaaa ... no mention of them?? People have been saying for years that the Zombie Apocalypse will happen?  Imagine that huh - the Robots fighting the Zombies......cool "end" to the "end of the world" - lol lol lol ....

sighs...just wished I'd bought a Bitcoin when they were $5 - $50 ea.  I did think about it at the time ........   :(

Interesting read Brocky. Personally I fear that the more dependent we become on computer technology in every respect, the more vulnerable we all become.

Vulnerable to what Robi?

a life of leisure , time for higher pursuits ... 

Yes Robi we do step into each new era with trepidation as did our parents but they embraced and enjoyed the technological advances as we will.

Many of our generation fear change.  I well remember my mother being vehemently opposed to having a microwave oven....would not entertain the idea at all.!!

After she had passed on the first thing my late father did was buy one and it was a godsend for him

My Father was born in 1901 in Dartmouth Devon . Before cars aeroplanes Wireless telephones and lived to see man land on the moon. 

That generation probably saw the greatest leaps forward ever.

Raphael ("Vulnerable to what Robi?"),

The article paints the picture of a future in which we have handed over massive control to machines that require energy to run. Numerous things can go wrong to throw societal systems (financial, health, legal etc) into chaos. It is never a good idea to put all of your eggs into one basket but that is where we are heading.

Brocky,

Yes, we can have too much change.

These new fangled press button dunnies should be banned.

Overhead cistern with a chain is the message on these cold mornings.

At least you knew if the chain was still swinging you were going to get a warm seat.

SD

 

Oh I don't know so much about that Shaggy.  I much prefer the toilet indoors with push button.

Beats going down the back yard to the stinky one any day (long drop or dunny pan), checking before you enter for snakes or spiders,  and then we graduated to one with the chain but still down the back yard with the same nasties about.

 

Sandi,

Just kidding.

Life from an appliance and convenience point of view is certainly much better than previous.

The way we interact with others maybe not so.

I guess it all depends from what particular point in time one views it from.

Take it easy.

SD

Like you Shaggy, most of the kids these days would have no idea of some of the things we used to have to use.

I also like some of the more modern articles but I can also see a future where conversation is a thing of the past.  When you see people having a conversation via messages across the table from one another, it makes me wonder what life will be like in another few years or so.

The world is more peaceful and prosperous than it has ever been .

The worlds population has peaked and in decline except for India and parts of Africa . 

The latest research by Australian climatologists say that climate change is natural .

Due to our abilty to grow food  on less land and produce fibre 

without animals farmland is being returned to nature . 

New technologies require less power

Human life is extending by 4 months a year and is on an upward curve .

etc etc

the article left out a few problems we will face ....

. overpopulation and its dire effects

. climate change and its even more dire effects

. increasing numbers of environmental and war refugees

. breakdown of societies and of law and order

. growth of inequality

. shortage of oil so, little solar or nuclear production as these require large amounts of fossil fuels. 

. lack of food also due to poor quality of over-exploited soils.

. no bees left, so not much food available.

. aggressive nations (especially USA) making war on nations with remaining resources creating more chaos, pollution and refugees.

. lack of clean water (much fossil fuels needed for any desalination plants)

. lack of seafood due to pollution of oceans

sorry to burst your dreams with a dose of reality!!!  technology will not save us unless we make great changes to our attitudes and ways of living, and i don't see the mass of people being aware enough for this to happen.

My goodness, you're such a happy soul Kika. I'm in Brisbane where it's a magnificent day so I'll just enjoy life today and try not to overthink about the situations that are weighing you down.

There are some great people out there working on all of the potential disasters you list and I firmly believe in the youth of the world. My generation started 2 World Wars and several other major loss of lives events so I know this generation will do better. But maybe offer your advice Kika. Have a wonderful day.

 

A very simple one close up is if ISIS and their ilk stir up Indonesia and its neighbours enough the subsequent illegal migration to Austalia will be of such numbers they will overwhelm the assetts we currently have to deter those on boats seeking refuge.

We have a very long, relatively unprotected and leaky coastline to our North.

SD

 

good point shaggy, but remember that ISIS was created and is funded by the US government.  no doubt about this now.

another real possibility could be that as australia is increasingly affected by climate change large parts of the country could become uninhabitable for many.

would australian boat refugees to indonesia be welcomed?   or would they treat us the way we treat refugees?

karma has a way of coming back.

At the rate Kim Yung Un is going with his nuclear program I don't think we need be too concerned;  we will probably be blown to smithereens within 5 years!

 

Sydney to Melbourne under an HOUR: 'Hyperloop' technology championed by billionaire Elon Musk that could see pods zoom at 1,200km/h gets first test

Supersonic pods that could get you from Sydney to Melbourne in less than an hour have just completed its first test run as the technology takes a step closer to being rolled out across Australia.

 

ooops!  Our immune issues are increasing....

Fears over deep space travel as Cosmonaut study reveals the human immune system 'doesn’t know what to do' on long missions

Researchers from Russia and Canada analyzed proteins from 18 cosmonauts, revealing space flight causes the immune system to ‘turn on all possible defence systems,' to adapt.

10 comments



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