Both the Morgan Poll and Newspoll are showing a strong turnaround in the fortunes of the Labor Party. Election analyst, Anthony Green, has tweeted that the Morgan Poll would mean a majority of seats for Labor, while the Independent Australia notes it would put Labor in a winning position, stating that the poll “shows another significant swing to the ALP. ALP is at 54.5% – up 3% since the previous week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll – ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis”.
The Newspoll shows Labor and the Coalition polling at 50/50, with Mr. Rudd the preferred Prime Minister (53 per cent) to Mr. Abbott (31 per cent).
And yet our own snap poll on YOURLifeChoices website last week returned very different results, with 88% saying they would not donate to Mr. Rudd’s call for funds to fight the election and 81% stating they would not vote for him, either.
Last week David blogged on his annoyance at being contacted by Prime Minister Rudd, within 24 hours of displacing Julia Gillard, to ask for funds to fight the 2013 election. A robust debate ensued, with more than 221 comments being posted.
We also asked you to vote in a snap poll to tell us if you would support Mr Rudd’s call for money and if you would give him political support. The responses were unequivocal with 88 per cent saying no money and 81 per cent saying that he did not deserve political support.
It was interesting in his first speech as re-elected Prime Minister, Mr Rudd appealed to the youth of Australia, saying he understood they had been turned off the political process and he hoped to reach out and restore their faith.
I was surprised at the time that he singled out what is, I agree, a disenfranchised sector of the community, but relatively small in numbers. What about older Australians, I wondered. Perhaps the 5.5 million baby boomers and 3 million seniors are a bit jacked off.
And the poll results and comments on YOURLifeChoices confirm that Mr. Rudd will have to do a lot more to woo back older voters.
There also seems to be a massive disconnect between major polls including Morgan Poll and Newspoll and the comments and feedback online. Could this be because the pollsters are using old-fashioned landlines – and missing the views of those on mobile devices? Or those who prefer to communicate more digitally?
It’s difficult to say, but there seems to be three different Australias when it comes to political feedback: the press gallery, the pollsters and the real people. For example, the former Prime Minister’s misogyny speech was applauded around the world – and our nation – and yet the Canberra Press Gallery told us it had a negative impact.
We may be seeing this again with the polling – it is an imperfect practice at best, so be prepared for more surprises in August or September when the real pollsters, the men and women of Australia, get to have their say.
What do you think? Are the polls worth the time it takes to read them?