[Jan Fisher]

It’s official, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared Australia’s El Nino weather cycle is over.

The southern oscillation index (SOI) has returned to a “neutral” state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in effect.

El Nino refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific.

La Niña occurs when equatorial trade winds become stronger, changing ocean surface currents and drawing cooler deep water up from below. This results in a cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

However, the BOM is predicting a forecast of higher than median average temperatures for most of Australia for the rest of autumn and into winter.

It is expected this phase SOI will last until at least July before the possibility of La Nina is declared.

This will be cold comfort for many of Australia’s farmers who sold off their stock after the BOM predicted a severe drought.

Instead, there Australia recorded its wettest December to March since 2010.

What do you think of the BOM’s weather predictions?

[David Ryder]

The BOM get it right more than they get it wrong but sometimes they get it spectacularly wrong like forecasting a poor wet season for 2023/24.

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