Six reasons the trans-Tasman bubble may not go ahead

Australia may have blown its chance for international travel.

Six reasons the trans-Tasman bubble may not go ahead

It looks like plans for a trans-Tasman bubble may have well and truly burst. While this seemed like a possibility just one month ago, things change quickly in the times of COVID-19. Here are just some of the reasons trans-Tasman travel now looks unlikely.

Kiwis are killing it
At the time of writing, it has been almost two-and-a-half months since New Zealand acquired a COVID-19 case locally from an unknown source. The work put in to practically eradicating the virus from its shores has been lauded all over the world. That work has come as a result of strict isolation rules for anyone entering the country. In these circumstances, and with these results, it is difficult to see how New Zealand could then turn around and allow Australians unrestricted access and risk undoing all of this good work.

Political tensions are rising
When New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden last visited Australia, she slammed the Australian government’s ‘corrosive’ decision to deport convicted criminals with limited ties to the country back across the ditch. While the return of criminals to New Zealand was placed on hold during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, it was restarted this week and is hardly conducive to New Zealand extending any favours to Australia.

New Zealand has found someone else
It is yet to be confirmed but the deputy Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, Mark Brown, spoke to New Zealand’s The AM Show this week spruiking the fact that it was likely a two-way air bridge between the two nations would be announced next week. It is expected that travellers will not need to complete 14 days of quarantine or managed isolation after entering either nation. “We're confident we will be able to open an air bridge between our two countries within the next week,” Mr Brown said.

Australian cases
Since the talk of a trans-Tasman bubble was hot, Australia and New Zealand have been on two very different trajectories. As explained earlier, the Kiwis have been very effective, while Australia is once again on the brink with serious concerns in Victoria and NSW. While there are still states and territories that could argue for a bubble with New Zealand, it is still too much of a risk.

New Zealand election
There is simply too much at stake for the New Zealand government. The Kiwi election will be held on 19 September, and if allowing in Australian travellers caused a spike in cases there is no doubt there would be much finger pointing and potential repercussions at the ballot box.

Different goals
Ms Ardern has been very clear from the outset that it was her intention to eliminate the virus from New Zealand, and the country is very close to doing exactly that, with very few active cases still on its shores. On the other hand, Australia’s Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has never claimed that eradicating the virus from Australia was achievable and his rhetoric has centred around how Australians have to adjust to living with the virus. These two very separate goals make it very difficult to imagine a relationship where quarantine restrictions between the two countries are dropped.

When do you think Australians will be able to travel to New Zealand?

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    COMMENTS

    To make a comment, please register or login
    GrannyH
    18th Jul 2020
    8:20am
    Unfortunately I doubt I’ll be able to make my usual Christmas trip to NZ to visit my daughter and grandchildren. I’m very very sad about that.
    almost a grey hair
    18th Jul 2020
    8:57am
    I hope our Jacinta makes it quite clear to slo-mo that a go ahead first world country like NZ with first class leadership does not want plane loads of pox ridden australians at the moment and dont call us w'ell call you.
    Ronin
    18th Jul 2020
    9:10am
    Great to see the ANZAC spirit is still alive and well!
    Karl Marx
    18th Jul 2020
    12:09pm
    Who's Jacinta, never heard of her. And the majority of those pox ridden will actually be poxy Kiwis on their annual pilgrimage to family.
    Circum
    18th Jul 2020
    7:23pm
    It wont happen whilst australian states close each other out with closed borders.
    arbee
    18th Jul 2020
    9:15pm
    Almost a grey hair, don't stress, our men are not interested in your sheep, you can have them all to yourselves. Also, very well put, Ronin
    Arisaid
    18th Jul 2020
    9:06am
    Waiting for it to open so I can visit my family. Don't mind when - just needs to be safe.
    Ronin
    18th Jul 2020
    9:13am
    Visit NZ annually, as a lucky dual citizen. Love Sunshine State’s weather and holidaying in beautiful NZ. Don’t see it happening this year.
    Mariner
    18th Jul 2020
    9:49am
    Still a while to go to the end of the year - I am optimistic still. The big towns are the problem, not where we live. No protest marches for a start - the cause of the Melbourne outbreak.
    Alan
    18th Jul 2020
    10:29am
    Don't have great interest in a return to New Zealand. Pity that a Premier of the same party as Jacinta Arden is responsible for the dire straits that Victoria is in and the risks being faced by the rest of Australia. Eradication of the virus in the community was possible and has effectively been achieved in Tasmania and could have been achieved nationally except for the actions of the Victorian Labour Government through both not allowing police to enforce quarantine in hotels and in allowing the Black Lives Matter protests to proceed when social distancing could not be enforced. It seems that it was more important to allow protests about the treatment of people of colour than to protect the lives of the vulnerable as more lives have been lost from COVID19 in Victoria than lives lost by people of colour at the hands of police in the past 30 years.
    Ozzieg
    18th Jul 2020
    10:43am
    The comments about Cook Islands being a rival to Australia are very strange. Cook Islands remains very closely associated with New Zealand, and is one of a number of Pacific Islands countries that has remained free of coronavirus. It is logical that this would be the first country New Zealanders could travel to.
    And it is so much smaller than Australia that it will have minimal effect on New Zealand’s tourism industry. The benefit would be largely to Cook Islands, which strongly relies on tourism.
    Mariner
    19th Jul 2020
    10:43am
    The air bridge was always there, Cook Islands is financially supported by NZ. Both countries use the Kiwi dollar and the shops are full of NZ products. Fiji is another place with no infections and is begging for tourists from here as there are no home grown tourists to fill their resorts. If we do not holiday there the foreign aid bowl will be handed to Canberra and we pay to keep their country afloat.
    sunny
    18th Jul 2020
    12:42pm
    karlmarx

    such a horrible statement to make, you must live under a rock firstly, and if everyone did as they were told, STAYED AT HOME, this pandemic would not have been so ugly.
    Maybe Communists have the answer?
    Mariner
    18th Jul 2020
    2:02pm
    Just try to organise a BLM protest in a communist country, or even in Hongkong which is not quite communist yet.
    KSS
    18th Jul 2020
    2:23pm
    Yes well Sunny, its the far left Marxist agitators who have organised all the protests round Austealia which in our case have little to do with the BLM since they do not address the very real issues the Indigenous community face, rather its about disrupting society and installing the cancel - culture they propose.
    So perhaps you are right. If these far left Reds had stayed at home, maybe we would not be in this position now.
    bobm
    18th Jul 2020
    2:00pm
    I suppose what can you expect. Social distancing with BLM protests the return of the virus had to happen.
    Ardern's complaint of Australia sending back those who have been naughty has been expected.
    It is like any country if you to the crime you have to take what is coming to you. The one deported know what to expect and if it is some NZ people then so be it, like wise those Aussies who the crime know they will get deported from the country they are visiting.
    DO THE CRIME DO THE PUNISHMENT. From accounts of reading plus local observations the person who does the crime is deported and some complaints have been made "the males are deported and the wives and family are not deported" stay in Australia.
    Simple work out if deportation occurs what is the problems with the rest of the family.
    Adhern may not be interested in a travel bubble as a payback for returned NZ people.
    There a many NZ people in Australia and have settled into a good life and have been screwed by a few of the bad eggs giving those a bad name.
    KSS
    18th Jul 2020
    2:28pm
    Bobm, we must not forget that Ms Ardern is playing to the gallery and the cheap seats given she has an election in 2 months. That was the sole purpose of her grand standing in Australia earlier this year.
    If a foreign national commits a crime here and does 12 months in gaol, they should be and are deported - NZ or anywhere else. Ms Ardern can whinge all she wants but they are criminals and not Australian citizens.
    Worked hard to retire
    18th Jul 2020
    6:32pm
    Jacinda has done and doing a magnificent job in New Zealand , i dont understand how people
    can knock her for the job she has done , certainly hope she can work with Mark Mc Gowan here in WA and open up a travel bubble between WA and New Zealand . Scomos push for reopening the economy to early has not helped states like Victoria and NSW get there states under control , at least Mark Mc Gowan hasn't been taking any notice of Scomo, thats why WAs have had no community transmissions since April .At the moment tourism in WA North is pumping as nobody is traveling over seas to Bali etc , and traveling in there own state .
    KSS
    18th Jul 2020
    7:51pm
    Dan Andrews took no notice of Mr Morrison and look how that turned out.

    Stop blaming Mr Morrison for the failures of Victorian jurisdictional accountability and the failure of individuals to maintain social distancing and other health regulations. Thete is no legislating for stupidity.

    And for the record, NSW is now fighting an outbreak caused by a Victorian visitor!
    KSS
    18th Jul 2020
    7:58pm
    And I wouldn't be too smug over there in WA. All it takes is one person as NSW is now experiencing.
    Hairy
    19th Jul 2020
    12:18pm
    To many people to many ethnics with there own paths even goverment has problems with states differing views. Morrison is a bungler always too little too late He wont come straight out and say anything concrete its always well gayrded speech that is usually gobble de gook to send the masses away shaking their heads.(what does it all mean)?.laws need to be the same in all states no deviations .one country Australiains with one mind . But it will never happen the imigration policys of the last ten years have put a couple of million nails in the coffin .take a look at the crime rates snd the names That crop up they are certainly not western im not say westerners are not criminals .we always had them , but to import more criminals by the thousands .well trust the goverment at your own peril they are bordering on crims too .all for one and just for me .
    Hairy
    19th Jul 2020
    12:24pm
    Almost a grey hair im scottish decent . But im also aussie your jacinta has done a great job.maybe she should be prime minister of australia definately more credible than scomo.
    Hairy
    19th Jul 2020
    12:24pm
    Almost a grey hair im scottish decent . But im also aussie your jacinta has done a great job.maybe she should be prime minister of australia definately more credible than scomo.
    Mariner
    20th Jul 2020
    3:20pm
    Do not want her 15% GST (on everything); found the place expensive but of course do not know what they are earning. Hairy, if Scottish, do go live in the South Island area, you would like it for sure: cold and a bit colder.


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