One Nation to stay a part of Senate until 2025, report shows

A new report from The Australia Institute shows One Nation isn’t going anywhere.

One Nation is here to stay: Report

Any thoughts that Pauline Hanson’s return as a political force might be short-lived have been dispelled by a recent report from The Australia Institute (TAI).

The analysis from TAI shows Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is on track to retain federal seats in the Senate until at least 2025 and the prospect for the party securing the balance of power on a long-term basis should be taken seriously.

The research also contradicts the popularly held belief that the party failed badly in the recent West Australian state election, suggesting that it doubled its support in the state in just seven months.

The report shows One Nation’s slice of the first preference vote in WA was actually higher than the 4.86 per cent reported, as the party only contested 35 out of the 59 lower house seats.

Across the seats it contested, One Nation claimed 8.47 per cent of the first preference votes.

In 10 of those seats, it actually claimed 10 per cent of the vote.

The report goes on to claim that if these election results could be used as any indication, One Nation would have no problem retaining its WA Senate seat at the next election and could claim as many as seven Senate seats between 2019 and 2025.

One Nation’s support at the WA election was close but not yet equal to the level it enjoyed in 1998, although those figures are somewhat inflated when you take into account the growth in size of the WA state electorate over the last 20 years.

The next electoral test for One Nation will be in Queensland, the party’s strongest support base, where it won’t be able to draw on any proportional representation to win seats, but must break into a parliament where all members are elected under the full preferential voting system.

What do you think? How does the prospect of One Nation being a long-term force in Australia sit with you? Is this good or bad news?

Read the full Australia Institute report.

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    COMMENTS

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    Swinging voter
    25th Apr 2017
    9:25am
    I agree that Hanson's party is here to stay and I think it is very good news. Unless and until Australia's deaf and dumb career politicians hear and act on public dissatisfaction regarding immigration levels and sources, Pauline Hanson can only go from strength to strength. IMO we should severely cut immigration and introduce policy that only permits skilled newcomers who can support themselves and who are adjudicated as culturally compatible or we will go the way of Europe.
    Triss
    25th Apr 2017
    9:35am
    Got to agree with you SV, if the major parties, abley abetted by the media, had not lied and perjured themselves to get her out we might not be in the mess we're in now.
    HDRider
    25th Apr 2017
    10:40am
    Totally agree
    Draganotz
    25th Apr 2017
    11:04am
    100%
    KSS
    25th Apr 2017
    11:44am
    Isn't that exactly what the changes to the 457 visa and updated citizenship test are aiming to do Swinging Voter?
    Batara
    25th Apr 2017
    2:45pm
    Absolute rubbish. Hanson is a professional politician if ever there was such a thing. Her party is no more than a bunch of rat bags and the sooner it self destructs the better off Australians will be.
    GreyViper
    25th Apr 2017
    5:46pm
    I can't agree with you Batara, I think you are wrong. I don't see One Nation as a long term solution but by voting for them we may make the two major parties start to listen to the people.The best thing we can do is write (or email) our politicians or call them up and let them know how we feel and what we are thinking rather than just expressing it here. Only by telling THEM how you feel is anything likely to change. The other thing we need to be aware of that it won't matter which party is in power the welfare budget must be cut! It is currently about 157 billion dollars and will grow to around 190 billion in three years. That is an increase of over 30 BILLION dollars which is more than we currently spend on education. This is UNSUSTAINABLE! 60% of our current population pays no net tax! What we need is for the two major parties to come up with and agree on some policies to rein this in. Unfortunately Bill Shorten is too busy telling everybody how unfair all of the policies that the government tries to introduce are just to win some votes rather than making any real effort to control this outrageous spending on welfare. You can complain about it all you like and and say it's government "looking after their rich mates" or "stealing from the poor" but if something isn't done soon to control it we will lose our AAA credit rating, interest rates will go up, and there will be NO MONEY for welfare and OAPs. This is just the economic facts of our growing deficit.
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    7:58pm
    @GreyViper, I am glad you mentioned welfare and OAPs separately as I firmly believe every pensioner should receive a basic aged pension regardless of their assets/income, it is an entitlement. On the matter of welfare many things need to change. Unemployment funds should only be made available for a maximum of one year. During that time claimants must attend all interviews, be active in finding any type of work, attend any training programmes. Stop the ridiculous baby bonus. Decrease the tax free threshold to zero. No subsidies for child care. Everyone to contribute to medicare even pensioners.
    GreyViper
    27th Apr 2017
    4:56pm
    I hear you niemakawa!
    I hear you ........ but I don't agree with you. A nice idea but where is the money going to come from? I'm self funded so I will not get any OAP and, not only that, but I'm still paying tax as well! And I guess that's probably how it should be. I'd prefer not be paying tax but I'd rather be in my position that trying to get by on the OAP.
    However, the attitude has to change. I heard a woman on the radio today and she had inherited some money from her son's super which she said she was going to pass on to her daughter so she believed she should still be entitled to the full OAP. So basically she believes that the tax payer should pay for the money that she has given to her daughter! It's just a really poor attitude. The government DOESN'T HAVE ANY MONEY! They take it from someone else! We are 350 billion (or so) in debt. They have to borrow the money to pay the welfare debt. If you have some money PAY YOUR OWN WAY, don't expect someone else to do it!
    Draganotz
    25th Apr 2017
    9:42am
    Paulines senate presence is a harbour where disenchanted Australians can park their vote or polling responses....so yes, she seves a very important purpose....to remind our politicians on both sides that the electorate is not to be fooled or fooled with or there will be conseqences.
    Troubadour
    25th Apr 2017
    10:25am
    Couldn't agree more
    Sen.Cit.90
    25th Apr 2017
    11:15am
    I also agree; definitely better than the 'Greens' alternative
    Not a Bludger
    25th Apr 2017
    10:31am
    This is neither bad nor good news.

    It simply represents what a significant proportion of what Australian voters want - and in our system they should have it - and without fear of denigration, as insinuated.
    HDRider
    25th Apr 2017
    10:49am
    Nothing new here, it is expected due to the back stabbing politics of today with the scum that most western countries have ruling their lands. These parliaments are totally ignoring what the majority of the people want, and it is quite apparent that they have become belligerent,
    self centered non caring spoilt brats! Their current aim, as usual to make the poor poorer, the wealthy wealthier and feather their own nest's.
    One Nation is the peoples protest vote, and it is working. Look at the cock up in UK Politics with Corbyn the fool, France, whose main parties have been admonished and the unthinkable could happen! USA protested, look what happened! Still Turnbull and his wealthy cronies abuse all before them and laugh in our faces! Fools
    John1945
    25th Apr 2017
    10:56am
    I'm very concerned that Australia is going down the same path as the UK.
    They have a horrendous problem with huge numbers of immigrants sucking the welfare system dry.
    We need to cut out this leftist-political-correctness cancer before it's too late!
    Look at the USA where the leftists have infiltrated the education system and now even free speech is threatend by violent thugs everwhere.
    I agree entirely with your views Swinging Voter. Australia must only allow immigrants who are culturally compatible. Look at the security problems we already have. We can't afford to let this problem grow any further. The daily attacks around the world must surely remind all politicians of the need to change and so far, Pauline Hanson's party is our only hope.
    Draganotz
    25th Apr 2017
    11:06am
    Careful mate....you're on your way to be denigrated as a racist for wanting the best and most effective immigration policy for our country! How dare you?
    Sen.Cit.90
    25th Apr 2017
    11:09am
    Well said John1945.
    It's time the two party ruling parties were given a shake up. I feel the 'One Nation' party is doing just that.
    Rae
    25th Apr 2017
    12:11pm
    Yes perhaps John but if we cut the leftist, political correctness then there won't be any welfare and what happens to the OAPs and welfare recipients then. Will the private system build workhouses?

    The UK sold off everything as well to inefficient private companies that are bleeding the country dry.

    You can't have neoliberalism and a welfare state. They are incomparable systems.
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    9:32pm
    @Rae. Millions are waiting to get into the UK , mostly Africans, who are not refugees . Many have gone before them. Adults masquerading as children from the ME, claiming they are refugees, finding every way possible to get into Britain. Many have passed through many safe countries on their trip but they only want to go to the UK. 99 % are muslims. Unfortunately the UK Government allows this invasion to go on without even trying to stop it. That is the reason the country is being bled dry. Australia is heading down the same path.

    Thank God we have One Nation to tell the truth. I want to live in a safe country without fear, that is my main concern. Until this huge problem of immigration is sorted the economy will not prosper.
    jzb
    25th Apr 2017
    11:13am
    I totally agree with you Swinging Voter. She's the only politician that stands up and says what the people want to hear. I hope Steve Dickson gets in Queensland as he seems to be an upright and honest person! Good luck to them!
    Batara
    25th Apr 2017
    2:52pm
    You nailed that JZB. She says what people want to hear. What she says changes with the audience to suit it to what they want to hear. Can't you people see she is the ultimate professional politician?
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    3:27pm
    @Batara and you which politicians do you listen to because they say what you want to hear? Obviously you do not like professional politicians.
    mIKER
    25th Apr 2017
    11:17am
    There is no doubt that we have been badly let down by the current pack of Pollies; however, One Nation is not the answer. If you check you will find that PHON has voted with the Government most of the time including cut backs to pensioners and lacks any substantial policies that do not express hatred for other humans. The trouble is who do we vote for? The reality is that either Labor or the LNP will continue run the country, so pick which one will do the least amount of harm. At this time it seems that labor is more likely to help pensioners than the conservatives who appear to be fixated on only helping themselves.
    Draganotz
    25th Apr 2017
    11:55am
    Perhaps not the answer for some....but a damn good pressure point for many...
    KSS
    25th Apr 2017
    11:55am
    Have you not seen the latest Presidential election results from France mIker? The two 'winners' going forward: a far right patriot with the 'France First' message and a so called 'centrist' ex socialist party, senior civil servant and former investment banker. Remind you of anyone?

    One Nation is quite likely to be around for quite some time yet.
    GeorgeM
    25th Apr 2017
    11:59am
    Agree with most of what you say, miKER, except that I don't agree Labor is more likely to help pensioners, as the Chris Bowen led thinking is dead against that. Pensioners do not have any significant party supporting them.

    Votes for Pauline are a sign of total frustration with both major parties and the Greens, and is an open indication / invitation for any new force to emerge in Australia to step in to start a movement such as by Trump in USA or the situation in France. Voters are looking for a real alternative, and it's not Pauline who is too narrow-focused in her policies, and has no depth or capabilities to grasp complex issues.
    Draganotz
    25th Apr 2017
    12:14pm
    You are right George...but if Pauline fails it won't because she doesn't have heart...just not the (policy) focus...I fear she is surrounded by and advised by dopes....
    Indy_Lopos
    25th Apr 2017
    12:31pm
    The Liberals have swung too far to the left.
    Labor has a poor understanding of genuine Australian morals and ethics.
    While Pauline will not be my first choice at my next opportunity to vote, it is likely to be well above Greens and Labor and still above Liberals. The worst outcome would be a Labor victory, so I wish Pauline and her party all the best, as she better understands the values that many Australians hold dear to their hearts, despite the unfair and fake reporting that much of the media affords her.
    missmarple
    25th Apr 2017
    1:00pm
    Totally agree swinging voter,Pauline and Jaquie L are the only 2 politicians who seem to be in touch with the people and have got the B#^&s to say it how it is
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    2:18pm
    Great news. MAGA
    tactful
    25th Apr 2017
    2:33pm
    One Nation with Pauline Hanson at the helm is hell bent on stopping legislation being passed.
    Pauline Hanson is a populist, going back over her track record she has grasped at whatever was causing angst within the greater population.
    She is easily swayed by others and takes to heart criticism.
    If members of her party disagree with her she dumps them, how often has she back the wrong horse as a candidate? Far to often, she is a poor judge of character.
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    3:35pm
    @Tactful the new buzz word "Populist" used to denigrate those that are patriotic and love their country by the socialist/left. This word only became popular by after the US Presidential elections, following on the heels of Brexit, after HRC lost to Mr Trump. She called people "deplorables" for even thinking of voting for Mr Trump. She stated as did many of her followers that she should have been elected because she won the popular vote. SO there you have HRC and her followers also populists according to their description .

    So it seems you do not believe in democracy either unless it is the type of democracy that suits your leanings.
    eggles01
    26th Apr 2017
    2:24am
    hey tactful,go back to sleep wake up when you know what you are talking about
    mogo51
    25th Apr 2017
    4:02pm
    I see One Nation as the only true representatives of rank and file Australians and especially baby boomers and pensioners. We are all sick of being the scapegoats and targets of the swill that infests Canberra. Their noses submerged in their own 'bullsh..'.
    At least we are some sort of chance with O.N. no hope with the 2 majors, greens a circus full of clowns.
    I see O.N, getting bigger and better and am happy with that possibility.
    Richard
    25th Apr 2017
    4:56pm
    I agree with most of the positive comments with regard to PH.
    No matter how it is said she got the votes so there is a significant number of Australians who have the same political position, especially in regard to open door immigration.
    IT'S CALLED DEMOCRACY!
    So politicians, press, including it seems the editorial staff at YLC, and pseudo intellectuals please take note - the masses have spoken.
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    8:03pm
    Unfortunately many, who mainly lean to the left/socialist agenda, only agree with democracy when it suits their politics. This has been proven many times recently in the USA , in the UK and only this week in France. They just cannot accept the decision of the people and become violent and self-absorbed in their endeavour to disrupt the democratic right of others.
    Franky
    25th Apr 2017
    7:58pm
    I see one nation as a positive for Australian politics. Whilst I don't agree with everything o.n. has a common sense approach on many issues which needs.to be heard by everyone.
    niemakawa
    25th Apr 2017
    9:53pm
    Australia can no longer afford to bring in more "immigrants" who are not only incompatible with our culture but rely on Government hand outs without any intention of making a worthwhile and sustained contribution to this country. One Nation will therefor get my vote as this is the biggest threat facing the future prosperity of this nation. Libs/Lab/Greens are globalists who believe in open borders and do not care about the consequences and detrimental affect this will have on Australia.
    eggles01
    26th Apr 2017
    2:20am
    you know what I would like to see is a question answered byall the non Hanson people this question"would you still believe the worst of Pauline if she had never said anything ever that can be construed to be racism c'mon lets see your answers,no one knows where you live.
    PlanB
    26th Apr 2017
    7:08am
    I did vote for Pauline as she was saying what most were thinking, -- AND I was sick to death of the other 3 ---however she seems to have turned away from the ordinary bloke -- re agreeing with dropping penalty rates -- wanting to get rid of the ABC and SBS and voting with the Libs over a few things -- if I wanted the Libs I would have voted for them -- she also seems to be a VERY bad judge of people as she seems to get some nut cases in her crew. It is to the point of really not having ANYONE to vote for at all !

    As far as Jacquie Lambie goes she doesn't pull any punches BUT she really needs to know what she is talking about befoe she opens her mouth, as she does make some very silly remarks -- I know she is new to this but she really does need to do some reading.

    As far as the others go ALL are a dead loss!
    niemakawa
    26th Apr 2017
    2:36pm
    PH and JL straight talkers, you know what they are saying, even if you do not agree with them. Turnbull/Shorten lie through their back teeth and make you cringe listening to them.
    Gee Whiz
    26th Apr 2017
    11:25am
    Couldn't have said it any better SV.

    The bludging Liberals and the union controlled Labor party are standing in the middle of the train tracks and can't see the One Nation express hurtling toward them.

    They have left it to late to jump and Morrison's May budget will just add more speed to the on-rushing. juggernaut.
    bike30
    26th Apr 2017
    2:27pm
    Pauline Hanson and Paul Ashby should tidy their party backyard and make it 'transparent', before doing anything else.....and stop lying!!!!!
    Old Geezer
    26th Apr 2017
    5:37pm
    One Nation will implode well before the next election so we have nothing to worry about.
    niemakawa
    26th Apr 2017
    5:49pm
    Will be around to see it happen? You will be disappointed.
    Reeper
    26th Apr 2017
    9:23pm
    The Coalition, ALP and Greens have sat on their proverbials without challenge for years. We have been seeing the failures within the Greens as they appear to be ready to implode with their apologistic policies which they stick to because they know they will never be in a position to have to try and implement them. So, they just try to be disruptive. Unfortunately under Bill Shorten the ALP has ceased to be a workers party and become a Union tool. The Coalition have some policies but continue to fail to respond to the electorate.
    The result is that minor parties are on the rise and an unhappy electorate sees the opportunity for their wishes to be discussed in Parliament by electing them. Cory Bernadi has made a very, very astute tactical move by merging with Family First and we can expect a very inept SA Labor Government will fall next year; the Queensland and VIctorian Labor governments will follow because the minor parties are going to punish the government bases. WA has just gone to Labor, but already they are dithering through poor decisions and blaming past governments something the electorate don't like anymore.
    Long Live the Minor Parties!
    maxchugg
    29th Apr 2017
    10:31am
    Pauline would do so much better if she took the trouble to know what she was talking about.
    For example, on Q&A she was made to look foolish by Sam Dastyari when she was commenting on immigration policies and the halal racket when, with better knowledge of her subject she could have totally squashed him.
    Pauline is having success because she is able to address issues upon which the vast majority would comment at their peril, as we have seen with Andrew Bolt, Bill Leak, the students at Queensland University
    The racist label is an extremely effective and powerful weapon.
    PlanB
    29th Apr 2017
    10:39am
    Jacquie Lambie also needs to brush up on her knowledge -- she might just have the guts if she did not make herself look silly with many thing she says and knows nothing about-- but good on her for having a go.
    niemakawa
    29th Apr 2017
    9:55pm
    She is our only hope along with the ALA. I ignore the term racist as it used to prevent free speech on any topic, when there is no inkling of racism. BTW those who label other people racists are the actually racists.. Recently the powers that be in Oxford University have now stated that not to look a person in the eye or to ask from where they come is racist. Some even use the term "cultural appropriation" to exploit their obsession with racism.
    PlanB
    30th Apr 2017
    11:40am
    Nie, I don't consider Hansen a racist and neither am I but I agree with her that we have sold out our country to the Chinese and I also agree that UNLESS those that want to live here need to live to OUR standards as we should do IF we were to live or go to another country
    bernardinaus
    6th Apr 2019
    9:01am
    It concerns me greatly that the Qatar government, through its media mouthpiece, Al Jazeera, can intrude into Australian politics as it has with the One Nation ‘scandal’. They spent three years and a lot of effort to ‘con’ two naïve politicians into believing that a pot of money was to be had in exchange for political favours and eavesdropped on a bit of ‘chit-chat’ between Hanson and a colleague and then made the comments out to be some sort of policy statement.
    Our local media then jumped on a juicy headline and carried the story forward, and a weak and/or opportunistic response from Liberal and Labor saw One Nation condemned to the bottom of the ticket.
    I have no doubt that, if it were Scott Morrison or Bill Shorten in the frame, ASIO and the AFP would be all over the matter.
    I think that the media are starting to realise how they were used, in the operation to shut Pauline Hanson and her ideas out of the game.
    It was my understanding that, in a democracy, everyone was entitled to express their views, and in politics, the voter decided which ideas had merit. Pauline Hanson’s passionately expressed views are anathema to the Islamist Qatar government, and to many here in Australia, but to slam the door on her right to express them is a dangerous move in a free society.

    Bernardinaus
    PlanB
    6th Apr 2019
    10:27am
    Also, Hansen should have had more knowledge of the book she was reading and knew what she was talking about it would have given her more credibility-- it was called --- DEADLY DECEPTION AT PORT ARTHUR -- By Joe Vialls -- and the name of who said about the gun laws in Tasmania was Barry Unsworth.

    It is all out there to read -- or was -- I still have it all, --- AND is VERY interesting
    bernardinaus
    8th Apr 2019
    9:01am
    But Hansen wasn't making a public comment on the book, just chatting with a colleague, so it doesn't involve making 'credible public statements' - it was just 'chit-chat'.
    PlanB
    8th Apr 2019
    10:19am
    Yes fair enough bernardinaus, but it would be good if she could now bring it out into the open with the facts in and about it