Climate models on the mark, Australian-led research finds

A common refrain by climate sceptics that surface temperatures have not warmed over the past 17 years, implying climate models predicting otherwise are unreliable, has been refuted by new research led by James Risbey, a senior CSIRO researcher.

Setting aside the fact the equal hottest years on record 2005 and 2010 fall well within the past 17 years, Dr Risbey and fellow researchers examined claims – including by some members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – that models overestimated global warming.

In a study published on Monday in Nature Climate Change, the team found that models actually generate good estimates of recent and past trends provided they also took into account natural variability, particularly the key El Nino–La Nina phases in the Pacific.

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The world's oceans are taking more heat.

Yep the earth is warming as a long term trend ...

Discovery Channel

Yes, the global mean temperature is on the rise. The National Climatic Data Center estimates an increase of 0.74 degrees Celsius (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) in the global mean temperature since the 1800s. The question, of course, is what has caused the warming? There remains a debate between scientists over whether humans contribute to global warming and climate change in a significant way. Some scientists say that mankind has made an impact on global warming by increasing, via industrial and automotive emissions the concentration of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. (Cars release carbon into the atmosphere, creating smog. The smog blankets the area, traps heat and raises the temperature. Industrial output has a similar result.) Others feel the jury is still out and that the science is far from settled. In fact, according to a peer-reviewed study released in the summer of 2011, recent NASA satellite data from 2000 to 2011 shows the Earth is releasing far more heat into space than some scientists have contended, and it predicts far less global warming in the future [source: Forbes].

Regardless of who is right on that score, one thing's for sure: we're lucky we're not stuck in an ice age. "Warming" hasn't always been the watchword. If you widen the time-dilation lens a bit, Earth and its rabble of creatures have experienced in the last 1 million years periods of glaciation that caused enormous change (not to mention ice and cold) to the planet. Just 650,000 years ago ("just" because it's such a speck of geologic time!) the ice buildup was so great that ice pushed deep into the U.S. midwest from Canada and modern-day Germany was hit with ice from Scandinavian climes. Sea levels dropped by about 400 feet (122 meters) and the worldwide temperature overall dropped by 9 degrees F (5 degrees C). Imagine that kind of temperature swing today, with sheets of ice covering vast swaths of the planet. And it wasn't as though that glaciation period hung around for a few decades: It stayed that way for some 50,000 years [source: University of California San Diego]. At least, for all of it's trouble and suffering, the Earth got some gorgeous valleys, enormous lakes and fjords.

"Tony “conservationist” Abbott has been telling the Americans his government supports “strong action” on climate change. Sadly, every piece of available evidence says the opposite.

First, his policy is a competitive government grants scheme in which participation by polluters is voluntary. As veteran US lawmaker Henry Waxman told the ABC this week: “That never worked anywhere.”

Actually, we didn’t really need a US politician to tell us that. It was the advice of the 2007 Shergold report to the Howard government, which said carbon pricing was better because regulatory approaches would “impose a far heavier burden on economic activity" and in 2010, when the auditor general was scathing about a similar competitive grants scheme run by the Howard and Rudd governments."

tony-abbott-is-no-action-man-on-climate-change

poor ol tone  :)

Codswallop -Just another attempt to try to save their skins from being called scoundrels.  Desperate men. The left on the nose and too many of those who listened now knowing its all a scam and fed up with them.Onlya few cant seem to grasp that science is not 100% but when they agree on something -then they say fact. Later often found to be wrong. Meanwhile they are part of a group who publish and prosper. Dont agree - kiss your career goodbye, on the out and out grants not coming your way, so best go with the flow and the flow has been the left pushing for last 30-40 years.

Thank God, people are not that challenged,  just busy so think their fellow man wont rip them off. Gordon Geko had it right in the movie, crime pays, and greed pays better.

 

 

All of course social engineering in the pursuit of levelling the world down to one level by far left via UN called distributing the wealth in pursuit of their OWG policy when we have all had enough of lack of law and order due to political correctness and being invaded by the only product of the third world, millions of people wanting to live an easier life and 'share' our assets

And of course the whole thing is the fact that it is not the dark smoke out of those continually shown chimmneys they show for carbon, because of course it doesnt show being unable to see and the very air we breathe.Media are all lefties with few exceptions who are brave enough to stand up to the bully boys of the left

And 600 million years ago without man even being being, it was double today, scientific fact.One the left cant fiddle. Without it the world would be barren nothing would grow and all species would die.

BigVal

Stange thinking..... okay for Foreign Corporations to TAKE our assets and profits, pay very little in return BUT not okay for us to SHARE our assets with other less fortunate folks.

Weird also, that YOUR ABBOTT is offering up Australia to all and sundry overseas by stating we are 'OPEN FOR BUSINESS'..... shorthand for take what you want BUT then Abbott tells little folk who take very little and ADD a lot to this country, that they can't even be considered for refugee status and ships them off in and to dangerous locations.

I guess you and Abbott like to SUCK UP to the wealthy elite leashholders but at the same time like to STEP ON ordinary people, in dire straits who are seeking help. 

Not something I agree with at all, since I don't really suck up to anyone.... not in my nature.

I think you will find The Heartland Institute and the Koch Brothers influence many right-wing skeptics. This institute pays big money funding climate change deniers Craig Idso, Fred Singer , James Taylor (Forbes blog) and Anthony Watts who Val has previously quoted from his blog - "Whats Up With That"

The Heartland Institute is in turn funded by Phillip Morris as well as the Koch Brothers and tells us that passive cigarette smoke is harmless and that carbon dioxide is good for us.

Follow the money Val. Look at who the big polluters are and ask why they are pouring millions of dollars into promoting skepticism about climate science.

Corporatracy and Neo Cons are in cahoots with big business, capitalist pigs. They're warming the earth so they can make a killing selling us air conditioners that are really mind control machines owned by the Borg . We will be assimilated

Puzzle of deep ocean coolingTHE AUSTRALIANJULY 25, 2014 12:00AMPrintSave for later118Environment EditorSydney 

THE deep oceans have been cooling for the past two decades and it is not possible to say whether changes in ocean heat adequately explain the “pause” in global warming, two of the world’s leading ocean scientists have said.

Warmer oceans have been a key explanation for the “missing” heat. Global average surface temperatures have not increased dramatically for more than a decade despite steadily rising carbon dioxide levels in the ­atmosphere.

A paper by Carl Wunsch from Harvard University and Patrick Heimbach from MIT, accepted for publication with the Journal of Physical Oceanography, says more work is needed.

“Direct determination of changes in ocean heat content over the past 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalise, e.g. the apparent ‘pause’ in warming,” Professor Wunsch and Dr Heimbach say.

They conclude that much less heat is being added to the oceans than has been claimed in previous studies.

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